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Problem solving Lecture 3

Problem solving Lecture 3. 14 November, 10-13 Johan Brink C22. Today. Problem solving Working Hypothesis The 7 ‘ new ’ management methods. Rationality analytics vs. Intuition Intuition is based on cognitive pattern recognition, matching abstracts and heuristics Intuitive idea

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Problem solving Lecture 3

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  1. Problem solving Lecture 3 14 November, 10-13 Johan Brink C22

  2. Today • Problem solving • Working Hypothesis • The 7 ‘new’ management methods

  3. Rationality analytics vs. Intuition Intuition is based on cognitive pattern recognition, matching abstracts and heuristics Intuitive idea Rapid Analytical implication, ‘test’ Then action/implementation People rely on a limited number of heuristic principles which reduce complex tasks into simpler judgmental operations (Tversky and Kahneman 1974) Problem solving & Decision making

  4. Troubleshooting • System knowledge • Procedural knowledge • Strategic knowledge

  5. Expert systems • Diagnosis, Top down • Data retrieval – added info, match & analogies • Consequences. If then must this also be true…

  6. Problem solving • Decomposed systems • NK: Parts (N) and degree of interrelations (K) • Divide • Abstraction & Reduction

  7. Problem solving • Framing the problem • Different perspectives • Different theories • Analogy

  8. What is a complex problem? • Novel task that the subject is unfamiliar with • Availability of information about the problem – transparency • Precision of goal definition – (including multiple goals, contradictory goals) • Complexity –as number of variables and type of relationship • Stability of problem, dynamics • Richness of semantic embedding

  9. Define – fact –what is the problem? Test Revise , test again… Facts matters Connect to theory & information Working hypothesis

  10. Internal (Problem solver) Experience (Memory) Effect likelihood of success Influence the strategies Cognitive variables (Information processing) General intelligence Background knowledge Monitoring and evaluation strategies Cognitive styles Non cognitive variables Self-confidence Perseverance Motivation Enjoyment External (Environment) Problem structure Semantics Transparency of task Complexity Problem context Embeddedness of task Familiar context Environmental factors Feedback Peer pressure Complex problem solving Given Goal BARRIERS TOOLS

  11. Focus Logics Mutually exclusive & Collectively exhaustive Clarity Chain of arguments Working hypothesis

  12. Process consultancy • Motivates • Guides the process • Implement • Asking the ‘right’ questions • Challenge assumptions • Add facts & theories

  13. Solution selling – arguments for ROI Project management Project control-management discussions After case : Problem-Activity-Result Working hypothesis

  14. The 7 ‘new’ management and planning tools • Affinity Diagram (KJ Method) • Interrelationship Diagraph (ID) • Tree Diagram • Prioritization Matrix • Matrix Diagram • Process Decision Program Chart (PDPC) • Activity Network Diagram

  15. Affinity Diagram • This tool takes large amounts of disorganized data and information and enables one to organize it into groupings based on natural relationships • It was created in the 1960s by Japanese anthropologist Jiro Kawakita. • ‘Post-it clustering’

  16. Interrelationship Diagraph • This tool displays all the interrelated cause-and-effect relationships and factors involved in a complex problem and describes desired outcomes. • The process of creating an interrelationship diagraph helps a group analyze the natural links between different aspects of a complex situation. • Box- arrow links (cause and effect) Academic experience Quality and content Experience from Consultancy Limited feedback First time running this course Enjoy different research methods Newborn baby at home

  17. Interrelationship Diagraph

  18. Tree Diagram Ishikawa - Fishbone • This tool is used to break down broad categories into finer and finer levels of detail. • It can map levels of details of tasks that are required to accomplish a goal or task. • It can be used to break down broad general subjects into finer and finer levels of detail. Developing the tree diagram helps one move their thinking from generalities to specifics. • Root-cause • Action plans • Components

  19. Three Diagram - 5 whys • Why are we having to divert ambulances? • We don’t have any open ED bays • Why don’t we have any open ED bays? • We can’t get patients admitted to rooms fast enough. • Why can’t we get patients into beds faster? • Patients are physically out of the rooms but do not show as discharged into the system. • Why are they not discharged in the system? • The nurse did not notify the unit clerk to enter the discharge into the system. • Why is process dependent on the nurse notifying the unit clerk? • It has always worked that way.

  20. Prioritization Matrix • This tool is used to prioritize items and describe them in terms of weighted criteria. • It uses a combination of tree and matrix diagramming techniques to do a pair-wise evaluation of items and to narrow down options to the most desired or most effective. • Cross-matrix –cause and effect matrix (function-interrelations matrix)

  21. Matrix Diagram • This tool shows the relationship between items. • At each intersection a relationship is either absent or present. • Gives information about the relationship, such as its strength, the roles played by various individuals or measurements.

  22. Activity Network Diagram • This tool is used to plan the appropriate sequence or schedule for a set of tasks and related subtasks. • Prior task • This task • Simultaneous tasks • Following tasks • Time for task • The diagram enables one to determine the critical path (longest sequence of tasks). • Early & last start • Early and last finish 5 days 5 days 2 days 1 days 4 days

  23. Activity Network Diagram

  24. Activity Network Diagram

  25. Process Decision Program Chart (PDPC) • A useful way of planning is to break down tasks into a hierarchy, using a Tree Diagram. • The PDPC extends the tree diagram a couple of levels to identify risks and countermeasures for the bottom level tasks. • Used to highlight risks and identify possible countermeasures (often shown as 'clouds' to indicate their uncertain nature). No main hypothesis No access to key data No access to key managers No complementary data No time for presentation

  26. KJ-Shiba: A structured way of solving complex problems The biggest problem with ...is... • Each participant gives his/her short view on the problem (1 min each) • Write down individually specific allegations/claims on notes (post its) • Go through the notes so everyone understands • Organize notes into logical groups • Put headlines on groups • Organize groups of global groups • Put headlines on global groups • Defining relationships: how do they affect different groups together? • Rate the different subgroups: the reasons it feels the most important? • Summarize results in a sentence

  27. The biggest promlem is… Step 1 & 2 Lack of resources Three times last week we were short of staff Short sentances. Maximum of 2-3 rows. Fact based. Specific allegations/claims.

  28. Step 3 The biggest problem is... Read. Explain. Clarify. Add. …! ? OK! OK! OK! OK!

  29. Step 4 - Sort The biggest problem is... OK! OK! OK! OK! OK! OK!

  30. Step 5 – Label: level one The biggest problem is... Aaaaa... Bbbb... Cccccc... Dddddd... OK! OK! OK! OK! OK! OK!

  31. Step 6 & 7 – Label: level two Xxxx... The biggest problem is... Aaaaa... Bbbb... Cccccc... Dddddd... OK! OK! OK! OK! OK! OK!

  32. Step 8 – Relations Xxxx... The biggest problem is... Aaaaa... Bbbb... Cccccc... Dddddd... OK! OK! OK! OK! OK! OK!

  33. Step 9 & 10 – Vote & ‘Sum it up’ Xxxx... The biggest problem is...xxx Aaaaa... Bbbb... Cccccc... Dddddd... OK! OK! OK! OK! OK! OK!

  34. Short assignment • Do a short KJ-Shiba exercise in groups of 6~8 student • Prepare to present your results along the process in front of the class (brief) • Suggested Questions/’problems’ to work with: • How do I write a really good Master thesis? • How to I get a really good job after graduation? • Or come up with a suitable question yourselves…

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