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Fourth-Quarter 2012 Market Overview. Presented by Matt Parsons & Julia Lindberg 525 N 9 th St, Cottage Grove, Oregon 97424 100 W 13 th Ave, Suite 205, Eugene, Oregon 97401 (541) 942-7300. Economic Summary: Fourth-Quarter 2012. Milestones Barack Obama wins reelection.
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Fourth-Quarter 2012 Market Overview Presented by Matt Parsons & Julia Lindberg525 N 9th St, Cottage Grove, Oregon 97424 100 W 13th Ave, Suite 205, Eugene, Oregon 97401 (541) 942-7300
Economic Summary: Fourth-Quarter 2012 • Milestones • Barack Obama wins reelection. • Consumer optimism in the U.S. rises to a 5-year high. • Citigroup CEO Vikram Pandit abruptly resigns. • Germany’s lawmakers respond favorably to the European CentralBank’s (ECB) bond-buying program. • Hurricane Sandy hits Northeast U.S. • A fiscal cliff patchwork deal is announced at the 11th hour. Certain sections of this commentary contain forward-looking statements based on our reasonable expectations, estimates, projections, and assumptions. Forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve certain risks and uncertainties, which are difficult to predict. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Economic Summary: Fourth-Quarter 2012 continued • Milestones continued • China introduces its next leadership team. • Oil production in the U.S. rises to a 15-year high. • The European Union breaks its deadlock and gives the ECB power over eurozone banks. • The Federal Reserve links rate hikes to an unemployment rate of 6.5 percent. • The MSCI EAFE and Emerging Market indices outperform domesticlarge-cap equities. Certain sections of this commentary contain forward-looking statements based on our reasonable expectations, estimates, projections, and assumptions. Forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve certain risks and uncertainties, which are difficult to predict. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Economic Themes • Equity/fixed income • Housing • Credit and banking • Employment • Consumer behavior • Business and manufacturing activity Certain sections of this commentary contain forward-looking statements that are based on our reasonable expectations, estimates, projections, and assumptions. Forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve certain risks and uncertainties, which are difficult to predict. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
S&P 500 Index and Dow Jones Industrial Average: Fourth-Quarter 2012 Indices are unmanaged and cannot be invested in directly. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
2012: Equity Returns by Style Source: Commonwealth Asset Management/Bloomberg Indices are unmanaged and cannot be invested in directly. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
2012: Fixed Income Returns by Style Source: Commonwealth Asset Management/Bloomberg Indices are unmanaged and cannot be invested in directly. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
Fixed Income Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
Fixed Income continued Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
Fixed Income continued Announcement Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
Employment Strong! Source: Commonwealth Asset Management/Bloomberg
Business and Manufacturing Activity continued Strong move!
Equities: Utilities P/E divided by Technology P/E Source: Commonwealth Asset Management/Bloomberg
Conclusions • Job growth was strong in the fourth quarter, with unemployment at 7.8 percent. • Inflation is not a large concern, for now. • The ISM moved back into positive territory. • Dividend sectors, especially utilities, remainrelatively expensive. • Decreased savings and credit expansion could create a tailwind for the economy. • Housing could create a sizeable tailwind for GDP. • Europe initiated backdrop for more stability, though structural issues remain.
Looking Forward . . . • Key themes to monitor • Employment improvement necessary for sustained recovery • Earnings season for fourth quarter (beat or miss estimates?) • Impact of quantitative easing on housing market • The end of quantitative easing? • European recovery: Is it sustainable? • Direction of ISM and Labor indices over coming months
Looking Forward . . . continued • More key themes to monitor • Debt ceiling debate in the first quarter • Housing market recovery and translation to GDP • China’s manufacturing resurgence • Italian elections in February • German elections in September/October
Disclosure Investing involves risks, including loss of principal amount invested due to market fluctuations. All indices are unmanaged, and investors cannot invest directly in an index. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The S&P 500 Index is a broad-based measurement of changes in stock market conditions based on the average performance of 500 widely held common stocks. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted average of 30 actively traded blue-chip stocks. The Bank of America Merrill Lynch US Corporate Index tracks the performance of U.S. dollar-denominated investment-grade corporate debt publicly issued in the U.S. domestic market. The Merrill Lynch Municipal Master Index tracks the performance of U.S. dollar-denominated investment-grade tax-exempt debt publicly issued by U.S. states and territories, and their political subdivisions, in the U.S. domestic market. The Bank of America/Merrill Lynch High Yield Master II Index tracks the performance of U.S. dollar-denominated below-investment-grade corporate debt publicly issued in the U.S. domestic market. International investing involves special risks such as currency fluctuation and political instability. The commodities industries can be significantly affected by commodity prices, world events, import controls, worldwide competition, government regulations, and economic conditions.