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Calculating Probabilities from Betting Odds in Football Matches

Understand the probabilities of different outcomes in football matches based on bookmakers' odds. Learn how to calculate and analyze the likelihood of specific results in sports betting scenarios.

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Calculating Probabilities from Betting Odds in Football Matches

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  1. The Big Match Cardiff City v Swansea City at The Cardiff City Stadium The bookmakers’ odds are: Home win: 9-5 Draw: 12-5 Away win: 7-5 What is the probability of each outcome, according to this information?

  2. The Big Match Cardiff City v Swansea City The bookmakers’ odds are: Home win: 9-5 Draw: 12-5 Away win: 7-5 Which of the following statements is correct? State the letter of your answer. The probability of each result is:

  3. How should you check if your working is correct? What do you notice about your answers? Why could this be?

  4. Why should the three probabilities add up to 1? • Why don’t they add up to 1 exactly? • What percentage error is there? • What could explain this percentage?

  5. Information sheet The football pages of some Saturday morning newspapers sometimes show the betting odds of a home win, draw or away win for each match in the Premier League that weekend. • For odds of 2-1, if you place a £1 bet, you will receive £2 for winning, but your £1 stake will also be returned, giving you a total of £3. • For odds of 9-5, your £1 is split into 5 parts (each 20p), and if you win you get 9 parts back (9 × 20p = £1.80), but your £1 stake will also be returned, giving you a total of £2.80. • For odds of 1-2, your £1 is split into 2 parts (each 50p), and if you win you get 1 part back (50p) plus your original £1, totalling £1.50. • If you lose, you get nothing, usually.

  6. Other Premiership matches • Use the information to work out the probabilities of the three different outcomes from 3 other matches in the Premiership. What do you notice about the sums of the probabilities for each match? • If you put £1 on each outcome for each match, do you win or lose overall?

  7. Other Premiership matches • What are the probabilities for each outcome for each match, and what is the sum of these match probabilities?

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