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SUBJECTIVE SYNOPTIC EVALUATION OF THE CIRCULATION CLASSIFICATIONS FOCUSING ON HUNGARY

SUBJECTIVE SYNOPTIC EVALUATION OF THE CIRCULATION CLASSIFICATIONS FOCUSING ON HUNGARY. Rita Pongrácz, András Reisz, Judit Bartholy. Department of Meteorology Eötvös Loránd University Budapest, Hungary. Outline. Two sub-domains (07, 10) contain Hungary entirely

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SUBJECTIVE SYNOPTIC EVALUATION OF THE CIRCULATION CLASSIFICATIONS FOCUSING ON HUNGARY

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  1. SUBJECTIVE SYNOPTIC EVALUATION OF THE CIRCULATION CLASSIFICATIONS FOCUSING ON HUNGARY Rita Pongrácz, András Reisz, Judit Bartholy Department of MeteorologyEötvös Loránd UniversityBudapest, Hungary

  2. Outline • Two sub-domains (07, 10) contain Hungary entirely • Selection of circulation classifications • Evaluation

  3. Selection of circulation classifications for evaluation • WSD (within-type standard deviation) - low EV (explained variation) - high • basis: year • MSLP, 2mT, LSP, CP • both subsectors 07 and 10

  4. Selected circulation classifications for evaluation • Sandra (23 / 19 types) CA, t-mode PCA, simulated annealing, using SLP • CEC (4×10 types) CA – seasons separately, AT-500 & AT-1000 • ESLPC10 (10 types) similarity index for SLP • LWT2 (26 types) flow direction and vorticity, using SLP (improved Jenkinson-Collision system) • WLKC733 (40 types) using wind, AT-925, AT-500, wetness • Péczely (subjective, 13 types – only for the Carpathian basin), SLP

  5. Synoptic evaluation of circulation classifications • Missing / Odd / Frequency • Sandra: NNN - YNN (2 and 1) • CEC: NNY - YYN (3 and 0) • ESLPC10: NYN - YNN (1) • LWT2: NNN - YNN (2 and 1) • WLKC733: NNN - NNN (2) • Péczely: NNY (3)

  6. Synoptic evaluation of circulation classifications • Missing patterns?winter blocking, stable local cold mass above the Carpathian basin • Odd patterns?relates to isobar density (western and eastern part of the domain differ too much) • Frequency?on annual or seasonal basis? • Difference between sub-domains 07 and 10

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