Seasonal Adjustment of Short-Term Statistics by Eurostat Simo Pasi Unit G3

1. Seasonal adjustment of short-term statistics by Eurostat Simo Pasi Unit G3 “Short-term statistics; tourism”

2. Outline of the presentation • Who are we? • What are we doing? • Short-term statistics regulation (1165/98) • Many time series • Process of seasonal adjustment • Challenges for the future Workshop on Methodological Issues in Seasonal Adjustment

3. Who are we? Workshop on Methodological Issues in Seasonal Adjustment

4. What is G3/STS doing? • From March 2012 onwards 4 monthly news releases • Industry – Output prices of the domestic market (“Industrial producer prices”) • Retail trade and repair – Turnover and deflator of sales (“Volume of retail trade”) • Industry – Production (“Industrial production”) • Construction – Production (“Construction output”) • Eight Principal European Economic Indicators (PEEIs) In addition to the above four: • Industry – Import prices • Construction – Building permits • Other services – Turnover • Other services – Output prices (“SPPI”) • Other short-term indicators (turnover & labour indicators) bold = data are seasonally adjusted Workshop on Methodological Issues in Seasonal Adjustment

5. Council Regulation on short-term statistics • 1165/98 amended by 1158/2005 etc. • Consolidated version in EUR-Lex • 4 Annexes: • Industry • Construction • Retail trade and repair • Other services • Current requirement: working day adjusted data (where relevant) • If submitted, the national seasonally adjusted data are published by Eurostat– otherwise Eurostat can publish their seasonally adjusted data • The overhaul of the legal text has started: seasonally adjusted data as a requirement, new index on services production… Workshop on Methodological Issues in Seasonal Adjustment

6. Many time series (order of magnitude)… Workshop on Methodological Issues in Seasonal Adjustment

7. Workshop on Methodological Issues in Seasonal Adjustment

8. ∑ From direct to indirect seasonal adjustment NSIs Eurostat ∑ Gross data E U R O B A S E WdA DIRECT SA (‘til Feb 2012) ∑ SA Working day adjusted data SA either or INDIRECT SA (from March 2012) Seasonally adjusted & trend data Workshop on Methodological Issues in Seasonal Adjustment

9. Automatic treatment  Human revision of SA models Human data validation Workshop on Methodological Issues in Seasonal Adjustment

10. Challenges for the future: implementation of Demetra+ • STS team deals with a large number of time series • > Automation of seasonal adjustment is a must • We are interested in the advanced features of Demetra+ (seasonal factors, advanced diagnostics etc.) • Currently we cannot • save model parameters of individual series • run seasonal adjustment as a “Unix job” using the saved model and data in the Fame database • Demetra 2.2 has some shortcomings but allows saving the Tramo-Seats type of models in a format readable to Tramo-Seats running on Unix • Span-wise seasonal adjustment of merged series, stability of seasonal factors… Workshop on Methodological Issues in Seasonal Adjustment