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Please start portfolios

Please start portfolios. MGMT 276: Statistical Inference in Management McClelland Hall, Room 132 8:30 – 10:45 Monday - Thursday Summer II , 2012. Welcome. Experiment. Please read: Chapters 5 - 9 in Lind book & Chapters 10, 11, 12 & 14 in Plous book: Lind

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Please start portfolios

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  1. Please start portfolios

  2. MGMT 276: Statistical Inference in ManagementMcClelland Hall, Room 1328:30 – 10:45 Monday - ThursdaySummer II, 2012. Welcome Experiment

  3. Please read: Chapters 5 - 9 in Lind book & Chapters 10, 11, 12 & 14 in Plous book: Lind Chapter 5: Survey of Probability Concepts Chapter 6: Discrete Probability Distributions Chapter 7: Continuous Probability Distributions Chapter 8: Sampling Methods and CLT Chapter 9: Estimation and Confidence Interval Plous Chapter 10: The Representativeness Heuristic Chapter 11: The Availability Heuristic Chapter 12: Probability and Risk Chapter 14: The Perception of Randomness

  4. Use this as your study guide By the end of lecture today7/24/12 Logic of hypothesis testing Steps for hypothesis testing Levels of significance (Levels of alpha) what does alpha of .05 mean? what does p < 0.05 mean? what does alpha of .01 mean? what does p < 0.01 mean? z tests versus t-tests Completing a one-sample t-test

  5. 95% 26.08 < µ< 33.92 mean + z σ = 30 ± (1.96)(2) 99% 24.84 < µ< 35.16 mean + z σ = 30 ± (2.58)(2)

  6. Melvin Melvin Mark Difference not due sample size because both samples same size Difference not due population variability because same population Yes! Difference is due to sloppiness and random error in Melvin’s sample Melvin

  7. √ z- score : because we know the population standard deviation Ho: µ = 5 Bags of potatoes from that plant are not different from other plants Ha: µ ≠ 5 Bags of potatoes from that plant are different from other plants Two tailed test (α = .05) 1.96 1 1 = .25 = 6 – 5 4 16 = 4.0 .25 4.0 -1.96 1.96

  8. Because theobserved z (4.0 ) is bigger than critical z (1.96) These three will always match Yes Probability of Type I error is always equal to alpha Yes Yes .05 1.64 No Because observed z (4.0) is still bigger than critical z (1.64) 2.58 No Because observed z (4.0) is still bigger than critical z(2.58) there is not there is a difference there is there is no difference 1.96 2.58

  9. √ Ho: µ = 16 Null: No change in the machine Ha: µ ≠ 16 Alternative : Yes change in the machine Two tailed test (α = .05) 1.96 0.15 = .0212 16.017 – 16.0 50 = .8015 .0212 Because theobserved z (.8 ) is smaller than critical z (1.96) .8015 These three will always match -1.96 1.96 No Probability of Type I error is always equal to alpha No No .05

  10. Remember if observed z (or t) is less than one it is impossible to reject the null hypothesis(with alpha of .05) 1.64 No Because observed z (.8 ) is still smaller than critical z (1.64) 2.58 No Because observed z (.8 ) is still smaller than critical z (2.58) there is no change there is a change in mach there is there is no change 1.96 2.58

  11. . Clicker questions may not be published to the website Exam 2 Review

  12. Thank you! See you next time!!

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