You & The Distant Future

1. You & The Distant Future Robin Hanson Assoc. Prof. of Economics George Mason University

2. Outline • Near-Far Theory – why your thoughts on future are odd. • Perpetuities – How you could have huge impact, but the law fights you. • Cryonics – How you might personally live to see the future, yet few are interested.

3. Outline • Near-Far Theory – why your thoughts on future are odd. • Perpetuities – How you could have huge impact, but the law fights you. • Cryonics – How you might personally live to see the future, yet few are interested.

4. The Future Seems Shiny

5. FAR: many things, each less detailed Assume: far in time, social distance, chance, & care Objects: few distinct types, simple, smooth, blue People: few distinct types, act on coherent core values Theories: strong, few deviations, confident Assume: near in time, social distance, chance, & care Objects: many mixed types, complex, textured, red People: many mixed types, act on conflicted desires Theories: weak, many deviations, uncertain NEAR: few things, each more detailed

6. FAR Construal Level Theory • Near: few, detailed • Far: many, minimal • Categorize, analogize • See Liberman & Trope Science 21Nov ‘08 • “Abstract/concrete”; distinct brain hardware? • Near: more for practical hidden decisions • Far: more to impress, & to decide: • Talk, lead, control, moral/norm NEAR

7. Near Far here, now, me, us;important; past; warm, red; bright, taste, touch; slang, grunt; voice, picture; fear, sad; disliked, low mood; sex, tempt; persuadable, seek info, conforming, support authority; low power/status, via acts;math/logic analysis, case-based comparable how con reasons;uncertain, theory/trend-breaking, common likely real local events;concrete, context-dependent, detailed, incidental relations;narrow categories; familiar task/event;feasible safe acts; money, buying; conflicted secondary local practical constraints, means;strong, female emotions; socially near folks w/ unstable traits in small groups there, then, them; unimportant, future; cold, blue; dark,see, hear; polite speech, words, faces; anger, guilt, shame, pride, anxiety, regret; liked, high mood; love, self-control;stubborn, trust, support underdogs; high power/status, via associates; creative analogy, feature-based unique why pro reasons;over-confident; theory/trend-following, rare unlikely unreal global events;abstract, schematic, context-free, core, coarse, goal-related properties; broad categories; novel task/event;desirable risky acts; selling, satisfaction; coherent central global symbolic ideal moral concerns, ends, obstacles;weak, male emotions; far folks w/ stable traits in big groups

8. The Future Seems Shiny

9. Outline • Near-Far Theory – why your thoughts on future are odd. • Perpetuities – How you could have huge impact, but the law fights you. • Cryonics – How you might personally live to see the future, yet few are interested.

10. Ben Franklin’s 200 year gift • Most famous of US, Poor Richard’s Almanac • 1785 French satire mocked US optimism: “Fortunate Richard” will left $ to pay in 500yr • Franklin left £1000 ea. to Philly, Boston Died 1790, funds grew, in 1990 paid 2.3,5M$, x 35, 76 inflation-adjusted gains 1.8, 2.2%/yr return, below market rates

11. A Copycat Wannabe • Peter Thellusson, 1797, left £600K in will: • “to be invested until every currently existing heir was dead, then give to distant descendants” • Burned in legal fees: 62 years, 100s lawyers • Parliament enacted: Rule against perpetuities • Jonathan Holden, 1967, $2.8M to 500yr trusts • More high-minded purposes • ’77 court: Must pay yearly, not accumulate

12. Magic of Compound Interest • 1.023100 = 10, 1.05500 = 4x109, 1.055000 = 10105 ! • Wealth buildups long a tempting target • E.g., Jewish Jubilee institutionalized grab • But England property secure since 1200 • Risk there was kids refuse to save • Law prevents trusts instructed to save! • Distaste for “dead hands” control living • Discourages trade of helping future for ancestor respect/remember

13. Outline • Near-Far Theory – why your thoughts on future are odd. • Perpetuities – How you could have huge impact, but the law fights you. • Cryonics – How you might personally live to see the future, yet few are interested.