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Value Maximization

Value Maximization. Economics 134A. Prerequisites. PSTAT 5E, Economics 100AB or 104AB, Econ 101 or permission. Otherwise, see Marshall in office hours for permission to enroll. Tuesday-Wednesday 1-2, NH 3044. Course web page. www.econ.ucsb.edu/~marshall.

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Value Maximization

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  1. Value Maximization Economics 134A

  2. Prerequisites • PSTAT 5E, Economics 100AB or 104AB, Econ 101 or permission. • Otherwise, see Marshall in office hours for permission to enroll. Tuesday-Wednesday 1-2, NH 3044.

  3. Course web page • www.econ.ucsb.edu/~marshall

  4. Start immediately to learn a spread sheet.

  5. Key concepts of problem solving • Equivalence (usually in present value, occasionally in rate of return) • Optimization (choice of action) • Aggregation (of values of cash flows)

  6. Webservice.com • Example of valuation for a start-up

  7. Key concepts for today • Real investment • Financial investment • Separation principle

  8. Terminology • Real investment = buying physical capital • Financial investment = trading one asset for another • e.g., money for shares of stock

  9. Principle of separation • Present discounted value the real investment. (equivalence). • Decide whether to undertake it (optimization). • Select the appropriate financial investment or disinvestment (optimization).

  10. Time zero is the present • Time one is the future. • Notation: • Cash flows at times zero, one • Prices of those cash flows in current dollars.

  11. Interest rate defined • Premium for current delivery

  12. Interest rate defined • Price of future money in terms of current money

  13. Interest rate applied • Prices of future dollars in terms of current dollars.

  14. Review question • A standard question for midterm or final: Suppose the owner of a firm has a good investment opportunity that uses all of her cash. She wants to consume right away. Which should she do? Explain. • Answer: do both.

  15. Demonstration: Monty Hall • A prize is behind one of three doors. • Contestant chooses one. • Host opens a door that is not the chosen door and not the one concealing the prize. (He knows where the prize is.) • Contestant is allowed to switch doors.

  16. Solution • The contestant should always switch. • Why? Because the host has information that is revealed by his action.

  17. Representation switch and win or stay and lose guess wrong Nature’s move, plus the contestant’s guess. pr = 2/3 pr = 1/3 guess right switch and lose or stay and win

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