Rosemary Venne: University of Saskatchewan Demographic Trends: Canada

1. Rosemary Venne: University of Saskatchewan Demographic Trends: Canada • small spread out population + large land mass • = high infrastructure costs • population pyramids: middle-age spread/boomers • aging population • current fertility rate (1.5)

2. Demographic Groups • depression/wartime bust; born 1930-1946 • aged 66-76 (in year 2006); • postwar babyboom born 1947-1966 • aged 40-59 in 2006; • postboom bust; born 1967-1979; aged 27-39 in year 2006; • babyboom echo born 1980-1995; aged 11-26 in 2006 • continuing bust 1996 on

3. Demographic Trends: Halton • slightly younger than Canadian profile • very mobile population • Stronger growth rate than the provincial average with Milton and Oakville leading the way • an immigrant-receiving province/region

4. Trends: boom/bust cycles • Boom groups: face more (within-group) generational crowding; generally boom groups have a harder time throughout their lifetime; • Results in excess labour supply and lower wages • Bust groups: face less generational crowding; generally bust groups have a smoother sail through life • Results in labour shortage and higher wage rate

5. Trends: Career Patterns • steady state career pattern: vocation, one lifetime job; seniority, security important • linear career pattern: promotion-centred, climbing the career ladder; power • spiral career pattern: many jobs, lateral moves; re-education and training • transitory career pattern: contract, project work; many jobs; teams, variety

6. Career: interaction effects • Demographic bust + economic boom = very favourable interaction effect for depression/wartime baby bust • Demographic boom + stagnant/variable economy = overall less favourable interaction effect for baby boom • Current bust: more variable

7. Trends: postwar changes • rising prosperity, rise in standard of living, acceleration of tech development • economic boom with small labour force • tall organizational hierarchies • 1970/80s changes: oil price shocks; globalization, downsizing and delayering

8. Changing factors affecting careers • career pattern shifts: from stability to flux • delayering and flattening corporate hierarchies • stagnant wage growth since mid 1970s • rising skill requirements and tech change • lifelong learning

9. Delayering: Dupont Example • In order to compete, Dupont flattened their hierarchy in the early 1990s: • Before: Dupont lost business prior to flattening their hierarchy because new projects had to survive 4 levels of review –very time consuming (in the 1980s) • Now: Dupont is faster as new projects have to survive just one level of review (with flatter pyramid, more autonomy and more participatory mgmt)

10. Real wage growth (family income) • 1950s: 50% • 1960s: 40% • 1970s: 22% • 1980s: 3% • 1990s: 8% • Taking into account tax increases and inflation

11. Changing factors affecting youth and careers • slower to leave home • sometimes boomerang back (cluttered nest) • increased educational participation (no longer job-ready at end of high school) • more difficult school-to-work transition • career shifters and lifelong learners

12. Changing factors affecting youth and careers • quote: the 1990s will be looked upon as the decade when the labour market divided into the educational haves and have-nots; • -in an economy that puts a premium on knowledge (and credentials), higher levels of education are becoming a must for young people • Source: Globe and Mail, B. Little Oct, 1999.

13. Trends: Changing workplaces • increasing diversity in labour force • including: more women, more visible minorities, greater education • more flexible policies to suit workforce • flexible work hours, flexible benefit plans

14. Labour force supply issues in the 21st century • decreasing portion of life cycle in labour force • slow growing labour supply (flat by 2016) • babyboom echo entering labour force • unknown labour demand (importance of the economy) • continued technological change

15. Trends: Tech change affecting the workplace • Gallatin Steel : It used to take 5000 people to produce as much steel as Gallatin’s 300-person workforce can produce in 1995! • 40% of their workforce has college or university degrees • from: 1st college, then the mill, Globe and Mail ROB, August 29,1995

16. Generational differences • most changes are a long time coming (eg less automatic respect for authority) • age cycle vs generational differences • Reactions to economic conditions • tech changes (comfort with technology)

17. Trends: Strategies for Retention • provide skill building and professional growth • offer career planning & mentoring • offer leaves (especially for those in remote locations) • offer flexible benefits and work hours • be life friendly (work-life balance)

18. Trends: Strategies for Sustaining Talent • keeping talent tuned in and turned on • investing in human capital with basic skills training (eg presentation skills) • providing challenging work with training and support • retention strategies will be paramount

19. Changing workplace practices: HRP • HRP can be proactive: Labour Force of next 2 decades already born • Increasing importance of immigration • Retention strategies • Increasing emphasis on lateral job changes, eg job rotation, career planning and lifelong learning