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Sulfate Discussion WRAP Meeting – Tucson, AZ January 10/11, 2006

Sulfate Discussion WRAP Meeting – Tucson, AZ January 10/11, 2006. Joe Adlhoch - Air Resource Specialists, Inc. Overview. How much of baseline regional haze in WRAP states is due to sulfate? What are the historical trends in sulfate concentrations?

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Sulfate Discussion WRAP Meeting – Tucson, AZ January 10/11, 2006

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  1. Sulfate DiscussionWRAP Meeting – Tucson, AZJanuary 10/11, 2006 Joe Adlhoch - Air Resource Specialists, Inc.

  2. Overview • How much of baseline regional haze in WRAP states is due to sulfate? • What are the historical trends in sulfate concentrations? • What are the contributions of natural and manmade emissions to sulfate? • How are emissions expected to change by 2018? • How is visibility expected to change? • How does this compare with the glidepath? • Selected case studies

  3. IMPROVE Monitoring Locations

  4. Baseline Extinction: 20% Worst Days

  5. Baseline Extinction: 20% Best Days

  6. Baseline Sulfate: 20% Worst Days

  7. Historical Trends in 20% Worst Days: Total and Sulfate Extinction • 16 year trends (1989 – 2004) required 12 complete years of data • 8 year trends (1997 – 2004) required 6 complete years of data • Theil slopes (Mm-1/yr) calculated for all sites with sufficient data • P-values of 0.2 required to identify trend as significant • Changes in monitoring or analytical protocol over the years may affect trends

  8. 16-yr Trends 8-yr Trends

  9. Historical Trends, 20% Worst Days Mount Rainier NP 16-yr decrease in Bext 8-yr decrease in SO4

  10. Historical Trends, 20% Worst Days Chiricahua NM 8-yr increase in Bext 8-yr decrease in SO4

  11. Historical Trends, 20% Worst Days Redwood NP 16-yr decrease in Bext 16-yr decrease in SO4

  12. Historical Trends, 20% Worst Days Rocky Mountain NP 8-yr increase in Bext 16-yr decrease in SO4

  13. Anthropogenic and Natural SO2 Emissions by State (Plan02)

  14. Total WRAP Region SO2 and NOx Emissions (2002, 2018, and difference)

  15. All SO2 Emissions

  16. Gridded Model Results for Annual Average Sulfate Mass • Annual average modeled mass (not 20% worst days) • 2002 and 2018 • Difference (2018 – 2002) • Ratio (2018/2002)

  17. Modeled 2002 SO4 Modeled 2018 SO4

  18. Baseline and Projected 2018 Extinction: 20% Worst Days 2000 – 2004 Baseline Extinction Projected 2018 Extinction

  19. Baseline and Projected 2018 Sulfate Extinction: 20% Worst Days 2000 – 2004 Baseline Sulfate Extinction Projected 2018 Sulfate Extinction

  20. Baseline dv and Projected 2018 dv Reduction: 20% Worst Days 2000 – 2004 Baseline Deciviews Projected 2018 Deciview Reduction

  21. Variation in Baseline Deciview Values

  22. Percent of 2018 Target Reduction Achieved

  23. Mount Rainier, WA

  24. 2002 SO2 Emissions: Mount Rainier

  25. 2018 SO2 Reductions: Mount Rainier

  26. Model Comparison: Mount Rainier, WA

  27. Mount Rainier, WA 2002 IMPROVE Data 2002 Model Results

  28. 2018 Model Changes: Mount Rainier, WA

  29. Trends: Mount Rainier, WA

  30. Glide Path: Mount Rainier, WA Baseline Variability (dv) Baseline Variability by Species

  31. Hells Canyon, OR/ID

  32. 2002 SO2 Emissions: Hells Canyon

  33. 2018 SO2 Reductions: Hells Canyon

  34. Model Comparison: Hells Canyon, OR

  35. Hells Canyon, OR/ID 2002 IMPROVE Data 2002 Model Results

  36. 2018 Model Changes: Hells Canyon, OR

  37. Glide Path: Hells Canyon, OR/ID Baseline Variability (dv) Baseline Variability by Species

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