What If We Killed bin Laden? Leadership Turnover in Terrorist Groups

1. What If We Killed bin Laden? Leadership Turnover in Terrorist Groups Matthew C. Dickenson, University of Houston What is the effect on a terrorist group when its leader is removed? Does the group become more violent, out of a desire for vengeance, or does it commit fewer atrocities?This study looks at eight well-known terrorist groups that have survived multiple leadership transitions. The groups selected (Basque Fatherland and Freedom, Hamas, Hezbollah, Provisional Irish Republican Army, Palestine Liberation Organization, Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine, Red Brigades, Sendero Luminoso) represent a broad geographic area, a wide spectrum of ideologies, and a diverse array of organizational structures. Leadership data were compiled from open-source records by the author, and the Global Terrorism Database was used for attack information. The resulting cross-sectional time series dataset consists of over 2,800 group-months from 1970 to 2008. The dataset was analyzed using multivariate multiple linear regression on the logged dependent variables: the number of attacks, victims, and casualties-per-attack in the months following a leadership turnover. The 2006 National Strategy for Combating Terrorism lists leadership targeting as the first of four priorities of action, but this study represents one of the first attempts to analyze changes in violence after a leader is removed. This study finds that leadership transition generally causes a noticeable and statistically significant increase in attacks and casualties for the months immediately afterward. However, the targeted removal of leaders in the uppermost tier or those in hierarchical groups can decrease the level of violence for up to six months. Methodology: Background: Instances of leadership turnover were collected from an open-source search of the Lexis-Nexis Academic database and publicly available group histories. Leaders were categorized into three tiers: Tier One (top leaders and founders), Tier Two (deputies, political and military leaders), and Tier Three (military deputies, attack organizers, and prominent members). Types of removal were operationalized in a mutually exclusive and exhaustive fashion. This original dataset was then combined with attack and casualty data from the Global Terrorism Database (GTD) for the eight groups under consideration. Observations were then collapsed into a cross-sectional time series dataset for quantitative analysis through multivariate multiple regression, using the group-month as the unit of analysis. Eight regression models were tested for each of the three dependent variables. When the U.S. and its allies began to pursue Osama bin Laden after the September 11 attacks, some commentators suggested that removing the leadership of al-Qaeda would cause another, more violent generation of leaders to emerge. Such hypotheses gained currency in counterterrorism policy discussions, but have not been empirically tested. Jenna Jordan (2009) found that the marginal value of leadership decapitation is negative, and suggested a further examination of the “potential for adverse consequences.” Terrorism expert Daniel Byman urged that “before going any further, the United States needs a full and frank discussion of the policy's pros and cons to ensure that the public is prepared to pay the price and that the tactics involved prove legitimate and sustainable.” (2006: 96) This study contributes to the discussion by analyzing levels of violence following terrorist leadership transitions through the methods of quantitative social science. The GTD is a “comprehensive, methodologically robust set of longitudinal data on incidents of domestic and international terrorism.” Eq. 7: OLS regression equation for Model 7; N=1085, R-squared= 0.47 Discussion: Results: The regression results show that leadership transitions are significant, positive predictors of attacks, casualties, and casualties-per-attack across groups. Generally speaking, a leadership transition results in an increased frequency of attacks and higher victim counts for a three-month period. Removal of Tier One individuals and leaders of hierarchical groups can have a negative impact on the dependent variables for six months. The departure of Tier Two leaders tends to increase casualty counts for a three-month period. Thus, policies of leadership targeting should consider the group’s structure and leader’s role. Notice the spikes in casualties following leadership removals The effects of leadership transition in terrorist groups IM # LLNL-POST-448072 This work performed under the auspices of the U.S. Department of Energy by Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory under Contract DE-AC52-07NA27344.