The Utilization of the Graphic Forecast Generator (GFE) to Locally Apply CPC’s Week Two Forecast

1. The Utilization of the Graphic Forecast Generator (GFE) to Locally Apply CPC’s Week Two Forecast

2. The Utilization of the Graphic Forecast Generator (GFE) to Locally Apply CPC’s Week Two Forecast • OVERVIEW • WHY should this be done? • How can WFOs address these issues? • Can WFOs add value? • How can WFOs easily create a week 2 forecast? • Possible Future additions.

3. Why? • CPC already offers a wide variety of very useful products….. Prognostic Discussions Valid: Sep 23 - 27, 2006 (6-10 Day Outlook)Valid: Sep 25 - Oct 01, 2006 (8-14 Day Outlook)Issued: Sep 17, 2006 PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSIONS FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 300 PM EDT SUN SEP 17 2006. ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N to 70N LATITUDE AND 175E to 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19500929 - 19960904 - 19540929 - 19680920 - 19550922 ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N to 70N LATITUDE AND 175E to 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19500928 - 19790910 - 19960904 - 19680921 - 19810828 6 TO 10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE OUTLOOK FOR SEP 23 - 27, 2006 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON B

4. CPC 8 to 14 day Outlook • Covers all the Contiguous U.S. and Alaska • Uses a 3 category probabilistic format • Easy access for all • Designed primarily for weather and climate sensitive decision makers • Weather risk management • Energy/utilities

5. CPC 8 to 14 day Outlook Problems • Designed primarily for weather and climate sensitive decision markers • Weather risk management • Energy/utilities This is what often leads to misinterpretations by our other users….

6. CPC 8 to 14 day Outlook Other Problems • Covers a large area • Covers an entire 7 day time frame • Uses only the average mean temperature • Only 3 categories used in the outlook • Lead to large temperature ranges

7. How can WFOs address these issues ? • Downscale and simplify the outlook to a quick reference graphic for our local area. • Provide text and or additional graphics to cover what these graphics represent. • Through climatology and incorporating local studies (both graphical and text), provide our customers a better understanding of the local environment at different times of the year.

8. 1. Downscale and simplify the outlook to a quick reference graphic for our local area. • Keep it as simple as possible to minimize any confusion. • Use the same 3 category probabilistic format system as CPC and downscale the area into the offices local forecast area. • 3. Use the same definition as CPC • Based on mean temperatures over a 7 day time frame.

9. 2. Provide text and or additional graphics to cover what these graphics represent. 1. Use a color code so one can easily identify the category 2. Create climatology grids of High, Low and Mean temperatures over a 7 day period to over lay the color code on. Normal Low Temperatures this time of year range from 40 to 52. Normal High Temperatures this Time of year range from 74 to 79. We are forecasting Below Normal Temperatures. This means we expect lows to be less than 5 degrees from normal. Highs should be at least 6 degrees below normal. 3. In text give the one standard deviation range and an overview of what the graphic means.

10. 3. Through climatology and incorporating local studies (both graphical and text) provide our uses a better understanding of the local environment at different times of the year. In our previous example we had already incorporated some climatology and local studies 2. Create climatology grids of High, Low and Mean temperatures over a 7 day period to overly the color code on. Normal Low Temperatures this time of year range from 40 to 52. Normal High Temperatures this Time of year range from 74 to 79. We are forecasting Below Normal Temperatures. This means we expect lows to be less than 5 degrees from normal. Highs should be at least 6 degrees below normal. 3. In text give the one standard deviation range and an overview of what the graphic means. ITEM NOTE: numbers for our standard deviations….

11. 3. Through climatology and incorporating local studies (both graphical and text) provide our uses a better understanding of the local environment at different times of the year. Climatology Local studies Can local offices add value to CPCs week 2 forecast ?? One Standard Deviation is not the same all year 2003 Local Climatology study of DDC by Scott Reiter and Jon Finch

12. Can WFOs add value ? Information currently available at WFOs to use CPC CDCEMC Climatology Local studies Large database of Graphics and Text Products Model Performance Model Bias Seasonal Means Patterns Wet? Dry? Pattern Recognition

13. Can WFOs add value ? Climatology CPC CDCEMC Local studies Model Bias Seasonal Means Patterns Wet? Dry? Model Performance Pattern Recognition Trends Extreme Events

14. Trends Extreme Events What can we do with these? • Depending of confidence can we include trends in the 8 to 14 day period • Will it be wetter or drier towards the end of the week • Will it be cooler or warmer towards the end of the week • Given expected trend, time of year, and CPC discussions is it possible at times to mention the possibility of an extreme event? • Extreme Cold • Extreme Heat • Etc…. This is where we can start to add value to the current forecast.

15. How can WFOs easily create a week 2 forecast What is needed • Something that currently is available • Something easy to use • Something that requires little or no additional workload.

16. How can WFOs easily create a week 2 forecast Answer GFE Already being used by all forecasters Has the ability to create grids and text. Relatively easy to configure Smart tool and Procedures make editing easy

17. Additional workload?The 8 to 14 day Process Once a forecaster has reached a decision…. Run the procedure This procedure will ask you 3 questions That’s it. The whole process takes less than one minute Then simply save the grids

18. Overview of the week 2 forecast • 1. The Forecasters enter the outlook • 2. At certain times a script will run which combine the outlook graphics with the 7 day mean, low and high temperature grids which and sent them to the web. • 3. A text file is then created for each element based on the forecasters input. From this text file a preformatted text product is produced based on climatology from various observation sites in and around the local area. This product is then sent to the Web and to the All Hazards NOAA radio. • The text created includes the most commonly asked • questions that we have received from our the public concerning • the extended forecast. • The text also expresses uncertainty

19. Future additions worth looking into • QPF • 2. Quintiles • 3. Adding High and Low Temperature probability forecasts.