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Economic Dimensions of Global Power Shifts

Explore the economic underpinnings of global power shifts in this insightful presentation by John Weeks, covering trade balances, institutions, and the rise of new economic powers. Gain valuable insights into the evolving dynamics of the global economy and the forces shaping international relations.

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Economic Dimensions of Global Power Shifts

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  1. The 14thMETU CONFERENCE ON INTERNATIONAL RELATIONSAREA STUDIES AND INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS: INTERSECTING DIMENSIONS17-19 June 2015 The New Bi-polar Global Economy, China and the United States John Weeks Professor Emeritus SOAS, University of London

  2. Economic analysis in this presentation is explained in non-technical language in my new book, Economics of the 1%: How mainstream economics serves the rich, obscures reality and distorts policy Anthem Press 2014

  3. Economic Basis for Global Power 1 Size of national economy 2 Trade/Current account surplus, basis for - foreign investment - international reserve currency 3 Foreign exchange reserves, basis for - currency stability - influence on/control of currency markets

  4. Institutional basis for global power Control/dominance of international organizations that manage – 1 International short term and long term lending; (e.g., International Monetary Fund) 2 International finance regulators (Bank for International Settlements, Basel Committee on Banking Supervision, rating agencies) 3 International trade (World Trade Organization)

  5. Review of Major Global Economic Institutions 1 International Monetary Fund - Keynes/White proposals & outcome - IMF & the Cold War - IMF in the age of financialization 2 World Trade Organization - the GATT - purpose of the WTO

  6. Shrinking Economic Basis of US Global Power

  7. USA: Trade Balance/GDP, 1950-2013

  8. Rise of New Economic Global Powers 1 Military defeats of the US government 2 Capitalist transition in China 3 Unification of Germany & introduction of the euro

  9. Three Major Exporting Countriesbillions, 1990-2013

  10. Trade Balances, USA, Germany & China-Hong Kong,billions, 1990-2013

  11. Foreign Investment Outflows, USA, Germany & China/Hong Kong, billions, 1990-2013

  12. Net Value of Mergers & Acquisitions of Corporate Assets, billions, 1990-2013

  13. Foreign Reserves including Gold, billions,1990-2013

  14. Five Largest Receivers of Chinese non-financial foreign investment, 2004-2010 1 $140 bn – Hong Kong 2 $27 bn – Cayman Islands 3 $14 bn – British Virgin Islands 4 $7 bn – Australia 5 $6 bn – South Africa [First three are conduits and/or tax heavens.]

  15. Change in Institutions of Global Economic Governance & Control 1 Transformation the Euro Zone into a German sphere of influence 2 Marginalization of the World Bank & ambiguous role of the IMF 3 Collapse of the WTO & sphere 0f influence trade blocs 4 Counter measures by the Chinese regime [Beijing-based AIIB, BRICS “Contingent Reserve Allocation” institution, 40% funded by Chinese government]

  16. Conclusions 1 The German government has established itself as the regional power in Europe [“history never repeats itself but often it rhymes.” – attributed to Samuel Clements] 2 The US & Chinese regimes are competing for global economic & military dominance

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