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Financial Update and Impact

Financial Update and Impact. Pinconning Area School District January 2010. Michigan and National Economy. National recession is expected to last until at least into the first quarter of 2010 Michigan – recession projected to bottom out in the summer quarter of 2011

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Financial Update and Impact

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  1. Financial Update and Impact Pinconning Area School District January 2010

  2. Michigan and National Economy • National recession is expected to last until at least into the first quarter of 2010 • Michigan – recession projected to bottom out in the summer quarter of 2011 • Michigan - Lost 540,000 jobs since 2000 • Michigan - Projected additional job loss of 397,000 through year 2011 • Unemployment rate of 15% for 2009 Data from University of Michigan and Dana Johnson, Chief Economist – Comerica Bank and Maureen Maquire, economist and President of ThinkResearch and CSNews Research Parnter on the Forecast Study

  3. Effect on PASD since 2002 • Per pupil funding – Increased 1.8% per year • Employee retirement – Increased about 3.5% per year • Health insurance – Increased over 5% per year (even with benefit adjustments) • Student enrollment – Declined 3.1% per year • General Fund revenue - $13.9 million for 2008-09 • Revenue has decreased an average of 1% per year for seven years.

  4. Why is enrollment declining? • Birth counts in Michigan were 153,000 in 1990 and were 122,000 in 2008 (about 20% decline) • PASD Kindergarten down about 20% since 2001 • Parochial – enrollment is down 40% from 2001 • PASD graduates around 135 seniors each year, but only has about 100 kindergartners.

  5. Cumulative Cost of Declining Enrollment Total $15,378,0311

  6. Budget Adjustments 2001-2009 • Teaching and support positions reduced or eliminated to reflect reductions in enrollment • Administrative positions eliminated and combined • Health Insurance benefit changes and staff premium contribution • Single bus route for transportation • Closed Garfield Elementary • Food Service charged more for overhead

  7. Budget Adjustments 2001-2009 • Implemented Pay to Participate for HS and MS Athletes • Staff wage freezes • Reduced school/calendar days • Community Education programs eliminated • Sub-contracted out teacher substitutes • Reduced Building and Department Budgets

  8. Advantages and Disadvantages of a Buyout Advantages • Avoids layoffs • Avoids unemployment costs • Saves money over one or two years • Significant short-term savings Disadvantages • Disrupts normal retirement patterns • Mass exodus of experienced teachers • Costs the district money over time

  9. Why Doesn’t a Buyout Work? • Generally, people can’t afford to retire more than two years early • Buyout gives away the savings between step 10 and step 0 • Each subsequent year, the replacement teacher is one or two steps ahead on the salary schedule (prematurely hired instead of the normal replacement process)

  10. What is the Biggest Issue Facing PASD? • Health Insurance? • Retirement Rate? • Lack of Funding From the State? • Fuel or Utility Costs? • Although all of the above are important, one of the biggest issue facing PASD is: DECLINING ENROLLMENT

  11. History of Declining EnrollmentFall K-12 Enrollment Counts 2002-09

  12. Enrollment by LevelFall 2002 & 2009

  13. Enrollment Decline by LevelFall 2002 to 2009

  14. Elementary Enrollment % Decline by School - 2002 to 2009 18% Loss 36% Loss 25% Loss

  15. Fall K-12 Enrollment ProjectedThrough 2013 Loss of 8%

  16. Major Changes in State’s Demographic Composition Ahead -3.9% ---14.3% +31.5% -8.5%

  17. Outlying Elementary School of Choice • Currently four students with school of choice at Linwood Elementary. • Currently two students with school of choice at Mt. Forest.

  18. Elementary/Middle School Grade Level Comparison of Districts • K-4 Elementary / 5-8 Middle School • Standish • K-5 Elementary / 6-8 Middle School • Arenac-Eastern • AuGres • Bangor • Bay City • Essexville • K-6 Elementary / 7-8 Middle School • Pinconning

  19. Elementary Building Configuration

  20. So, What Does This Mean? • District-wide, there are 11 elementary rooms not being used for core K-6 classrooms. • Taking all the classrooms and an average of 27 per class, student capacity for elementary is over 1,200. • Elementary is currently at a level of 60% capacity. • Enrollment at the elementary level is such that the district can operate two elementary schools instead of three.

  21. What About Other Levels? • Enrollment will continue to decline at middle school and high school levels over the next few years as the low numbers trickle upward. • Enrollment at the middle school is such that we could move 6th grade up to middle school, which would compare with other districts in the area. • Adjustments will continue to be made each year with staffing levels. • We will continue to take advantage of opportunities to reduce expenses in all areas.

  22. Cumulative Cost of Declining Enrollment Total $3,240,988

  23. Budget Projections – 2010-11

  24. Consideration of Facility Consolidation • Board has been informed about the issue • Board meetings and worksessions will continue to communicate the issue publicly • Plan for elementary facility consolidation at the end of 2009-10 • Cost savings of approximately $250,000 to close one elementary • Closing one school may affect the other school attendance boundaries

  25. Board Meetings/Worksessions • Will continue to review information such as enrollment history and projections, boundaries, building information, utilities, mechanical systems, staffing, technology • Purpose – Communicate to the Board and community that an elementary school needs to be closed at the end of the 2009-10 school year

  26. Potential Timeline • January – Board Meeting Presentation • February – Site Committee to review current quality of all elementary buildings • February – On-Line Budget Survey available • February/March–Updates and information at Board Meeting and Worksessions • March 8 – Committee reviews information to close an elementary school building • March 22 – Board Vote on recommendation to close an elementary • End of March– Kindergarten Registration begins • Late Spring 2010 – Transition meetings are held

  27. Communication about the Process • Link to presentation information will be on the Pinconning Area School's Website at www.PASD.org • Updates at each Board meeting • On-Line Budget/Financial Survey • Presentations to staff and community during February/March

  28. Strategic Goals • Strong Fiscal Foundation • Quality Extra-Curricular Programs • Facilities K-12 • Quality Technology Plan • Appropriate Staffing/Professional Development • Quality Curriculum

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