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Stabilization Wedges: Solving the Climate Problem for the Next 50 Years with Current Technologies

Stabilization Wedges: Solving the Climate Problem for the Next 50 Years with Current Technologies Stephen W. Pacala and Robert Socolow Science Vol. 305 968-972 August 13, 2004. Billion of Tons of Carbon Emitted per Year. At Least Tripling CO 2. 14. Current path. Stabilization Triangle.

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Stabilization Wedges: Solving the Climate Problem for the Next 50 Years with Current Technologies

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  1. Stabilization Wedges: Solving the Climate Problem for the Next 50 Years with Current Technologies Stephen W. Pacala and Robert Socolow Science Vol. 305 968-972 August 13, 2004

  2. Billion of Tons of Carbon Emitted per Year At Least Tripling CO2 14 Current path Stabilization Triangle Historical emissions 7 Flat path Avoid Doubling CO2 0 1954 2004 2054 What does it mean to solve the carbon and climate problem over the next 50 years?

  3. 7 wedges are needed to build the stabilization triangle Current path StabilizationTriangle 1 wedge avoids 1 billion tons of carbon emissions per year by 2054 1 “wedge” Flat path

  4. CO Capture Energy Efficiency & 2 & Storage Conservation 14 GtC/y Stabilization Triangle Forests & Soils Fuel Switch 7 GtC/y 2004 2054 Nuclear Fission

  5. Efficiency in transport Effort needed for 1 wedge: 2 billion gasoline and diesel cars (10,000 miles/car-yr) at 60 mpg instead of 30 mpg 500 million cars now. Cost = negative to $2000 - $3000 per car (hybrid Prius). Fuel savings ~150 gallons per year = emissions savings of ~0.5 tC/yr =carbon cost > $2/gal ! Photos courtesy of Ford, WMATA, Washington State Ridesharing Organization

  6. Wind Electricity • Effort needed for 1 wedge: • Install 40,000 1 MWpeak windmills each year - six times current rate of new installations (7GW/yr). • New installation currently growing at 30%/yr. • Requires 60 million hectares (7% of U.S.) but multiple use. Potential Pitfalls: NIMBY Changes in regional climate? Cost competitive.

  7. Capture the Carbon in Fossil FuelsSeparate the energy content from the carbon contentProduce two C-free secondary energy carriers: electricity and H2 Electricity

  8. Power with CCS* Effort needed for 1 wedge: CCS at 800 GW coal or 1600 GW natural gas, or equivalent H2 plants. Potential Pitfalls: Second step, carbon storage, founders. *The carbon capture step of Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS)

  9. Carbon storage Effort needed for 1 wedgee: 70 Sleipner equivalents (1 Natuna equivalent) installed every year and maintained until 2054 Five to ten times US natural gas injection and geologic storage. Potential Pitfalls: Public acceptance. Global and local CO2 leakage Cost = 5¢/gal (BP Algeria). Graphic courtesy of Statoil ASA

  10. Wedges #1 - #8 (out of 15)

  11. Wedges #9 - #15 (out of 15)

  12. CONCLUSION Humanity already possesses the fundamental scientific and technical know-how to solve the carbon and climate problem, at least over the professional lifetime of anyone who is reading these words.

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