1 / 18

Residential Access Network Evolution

Residential Access Network Evolution. Fred Kemmerer Access Architecture & Strategy Lucent Technologies fkemmerer@lucent.com June 1998. Current Environment. Data is a primary driver for network upgrades There are a number of technology choices for broadband data access

ima
Download Presentation

Residential Access Network Evolution

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. Residential Access Network Evolution Fred Kemmerer Access Architecture & StrategyLucent Technologies fkemmerer@lucent.com June 1998

  2. Current Environment • Data is a primary driver for network upgrades • There are a number of technology choices for broadband data access • Access competition is focused around data • Keys to the industry’s success: • Building on existing networks (at least in the short term) • Supporting technologies • New business models to support data services, particularly addressing the customer interface challenges

  3. Access ChessboardCompetition converging around data & mobile telephony Services Fixed Telephony Mobile Telephony Data Video RBOCs/LECs - SBC - Bell Atlantic - GTE IXCs - AT&T - MCI - Sprint Cable MSOs - TCI - Time Warner - Comcast Wireless - Air Touch - NexTel - PCS Winners Satellite ISPs- AOL - Mindspring Market Size (1997) Growth Rate Cellular;PCS 2nd Lines;ADSL VDSL/Video? Leased Loop?Cable Partnerships? Fixed Wireless? • LeasedLoop? • Resale? • IP Telephony? Cellular,PCS Players IP Telephony? CableModem • Direct TV • Dish • Echo Star • Direct PC • Teledesic • PanAm Sat • Irridium $62B3% $32B16% $8 B26% $27B8%

  4. Household Data Demand Avg. Service Expenditure($/mo.) Subscribers millions CPE Cost ($) FixedVoiceLines $27 (local) $26 (LD) $20-60 Cable TV $0-300 (DBS) $42 Cellular/PCS $0-200 $56 PCs $1,000-3000 - Internet $100-250 $20-$40 Total US households = 102M Source: Veronis and Suhler, IDC, CTIA FCC

  5. Wide Range of Projections for Success ADSLmillions Cable Modemmillions High High Medium Medium Low Low • One winner or zones-of-advantage based winners? • Wireless, satellite? Source: Cowles/Simba, Forrester Research, IDC, Yankee Group, Dataquest

  6. DSL Business Model – Early Market ViewA positive business model for DSL exists for business and is emerging in high-end residential/SOHO. Willingness-to-pay 1,000 T1 Small/MediumBusiness• Based on nearest alternative currently in use Frac T1 Existing Business Market Opportunity ISDN Top 25% of Residential Market• Based on range of current market research • Potentially higher if businesses subsidize (As in early cellular business model) 100 $ perMonth(log scale) ADSL HDSL 10 IDSL Incremental Cost(vs. Analog Modem) Emerging High-End Residential Opportunity 1 0.1 Mbps 1 Mbps 10 Mbps Downstream Speed (log scale) Source: Mercer management Consulting

  7. What’s Required? • Loop Technologies • Leverage existing copper and coax loops • Wideband base stations for wireless • Dollars • Supporting Technologies • CPE • Applications enablers • Core Network Capacity • Focus on Customer Interface • Industry Cooperation • Encouraging Regulation

  8. Integrated Voice/Data Networks Existing Infrastructure Switch Line Unit w/ Integrated DSLAM Circuit Packet ADSL via Metallic Distribution DLC w/ Integrated DSLAM Circuit Packet Cable Modems via Coaxial Distribution Cable Modem Terminating System

  9. Integrated Voice/Data Networks New Build Circuit Packet Fiber-to-the-Home Circuit Packet Fixed Wireless

  10. New Access Networks Are ExpensiveLeveraging existing infrastructures is a critical advantage Cumulative Investment in Residential Access Plant $Billion • High First-Costs favor: • Incremental Upgrades - ADSL, Cable Modems • Focused Builds - CAPs • Variable Cost Approaches - Satellite Source: FCC, CTIA, Kagan

  11. Expected Cable MSO HFC Upgrade Path 2-way HFC Upgrade % of Homes Passed Source: Average view of Forrester, Jupiter, Datapro, Company Announcements

  12. Bandwidth Likely to Bring Newand Increased Usage % of Internet Users Who Would Start/Increase Use if the Net Were Much Faster and Had Better Audio-visual Quality Use More Start Using Make Video Calls Watch Videos Make Voice Calls Surf/Browse Broadcast Videos Play Games Purchase Goods or Services Source: Mercer management Consulting Internet Lead user Study

  13. Key Related Technologies toSupport Applications Technology Some Applications/Benefits Quick-use applications; real-time communications Flat-rate long distance; E-mail & Voice Mailintegration High quality gaming, Video clip newsfeeds, Sports replays, Video-on-demand, Video-mail Personalized information, targeted advertising to help fund network costs Internet access via TV, smart appliances, ease of use Reduced cost for multiple broadband modems; Intra-home networking; Home Management • Always On/Permanent NetworkConnection • IP Telephony • Streaming Audio/Video Hardwareand Software • Push • New classes of Plug and Play Data-Enabled Devices/Modems in Consumer Devices • Home LANs

  14. Business Model/Customer InterfaceCable Modem Example Business Model • Focal point for industry cooperation issues • Backbone and server architecture/capacityfor end-to-end high speed experience • National branding and marketing platform • Uniform nationwide standards- Technology- Standard Operating Procedures • Customer Interface Development- Customer support- Operating systems • National scale for content, advertising plays • Centralize data networking expertise • Raise funds from the capital markets tosupplement limited cash flows Content Servers MSO Head- End National Backbone Regional Data Center Cable Modem PC NAP Network Management & Admin. Caching Servers Cable MSOs Cable ModemNational ISP

  15. Broadband Access Lift-Off EnablersCable Modems on the inside track? Business Model/Customer Interface Customer Coverage Cost Trials-Proven Technology Standards • HFC upgrades on track Cable Modem ADSL • Spectrum available, but infrastructure build can be time consuming Wireless • Need satellite launch • Can ramp to 100% quickly Satellite Full Service Network/FTTH

  16. What Will the Access Landscape Look Like? Near Term Long Term • Focused demand • High cost for new network builds • Current applications dominate • PC • Internet • Sow the seeds for new broadband applications • VF modems continue to dominate • Incremental upgrade technologies • Cable Modems & ADSL • Pull Fiber to the Neighborhood • Wireless as a Wild-Card • Broad Demand • Cost curves decline • Data, Video and Voice • Always-on, Many devices • Fiber Close-to and Into the Home

  17. Rate of Access Plant Fiberization % of Plant Long Distance Carrier Network Local Inter-office Trunking Local Distribution Feeder Source: FCC Filings, Lucent Estimates

  18. Thank You!!

More Related