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The complexity of governing international rivers: Central A sia’s A ral Sea basin

The complexity of governing international rivers: Central A sia’s A ral Sea basin Eelke P. Kraak – University of Oxford. Governing Central Asia’s river has become highly complex. Post-Soviet geopolitics. 1.

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The complexity of governing international rivers: Central A sia’s A ral Sea basin

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  1. The complexity of governing international rivers:Central Asia’s Aral Sea basin Eelke P. Kraak – University of Oxford

  2. Governing Central Asia’s river has become highly complex Post-Soviet geopolitics 1 • The geopolitical changes since 1991 have created two international rivers that are difficult to govern Disintegration economic system 2 • The integrated economic system broke down, which destabilised the political economy of the rivers Water-energy nexus 3 • Water and energy are linked by the dams in the rivers. Misunderstanding the nexus causes conflict What can we learn from the Central Asia case study?

  3. Central Asia has two transboundary river basins since ’91Distribution of water resources is highly unequal throughout riparian states Source: UNEP/GRID-Arendal, 'Water withdrawal and availability in Aral Sea basin', UNEP/GRID-Arendal Maps and Graphics Library, 2005. 2/10

  4. Central Asian rivers have a high temporal variabilitySoviet Union tried to make river manageable, building dams, canals, and lakes The flow of the Syr Darya has a very high inter-annual variability Intensive dam construction to tamethe river and maximise water consumption Irrigation in Central Asia integral part of Soviet economy Source left: cawater-info.net, graph by author. Right: Toktogul dam, source: Ministry of Energy, Kyrgyzstan 3/10

  5. …but over-allocation of water caused the decline of the Aral Sea, one of the world’s largest environmental crisis Source: NASA Goddard Lab, 2009. 4/10

  6. Disintegration of the economic system after independence put increased stress on water-energy system 5/10

  7. Interests of riparian states have diverged significantlyA distinct divergence between upstream and downstream states Upstream states (Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan) Downstream states (Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, Kazakhstan) Abstract 82% of water Water for irrigation Plenty of oil, gas and coal Prefer water in river in summer • Origin of 80% of water • Water for electricity generation • No natural resources • Prefer water in river in winter Conflict around the operation of Toktogul, the largest dam Map by author. Please note that boundaries are for illustrative purposes only and do not necessarily reflect agreed borders 6/10

  8. The Toktogul is the single largest dam in the Syr Darya The dam and reservoir connect the water and energy sectors It is located most upstream and is a crucial valve for the river system Largest storage of water and largest production of power in Kyrgyzstan Source: left, Bernauer & Siegfried (2009); right, data ICWC, Ministry of Energy Kyrgyzstan, USAID, graph by author. 7/10

  9. Water is increasingly discharged in the winter periodKyrgyz energy demands challenge the Soviet-era status quo of the river Km3 discharges in 6 months Winter water releases Summer water releases Minimal water required for Uzbek agriculture There is no successful agreement to govern the operation of the Toktogul cascade Source: cawater-info.net, graph by author. 8/10

  10. Toktogul has classic a upstream-downstream conflictBut there is a more fundamental disagreement on what water is Water as a commodity Water as a gift from god or ‘the downstream states should pay for water like we pay for oil and gas’ ‘water is part of nature and should therefore be free’ …but who is going to pay for the water management? 9/10

  11. What can we learn from this case study? Water-energy nexus? Virtual water trade Politics of dam operation No water wars 10/10

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