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Stop looking at the past and start planning for the future. Dr. Herman van Schalkwyk. Leading at the edge of chaos. We are currently in a perfect storm How to weather the storm? Find the truth Aim to be the best, not the biggest Vision excites people, not past performances
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Stop looking at the past and start planning for the future Dr. Herman van Schalkwyk
Leading at the edge of chaos • We are currently in a perfect storm • How to weather the storm? • Find the truth • Aim to be the best, not the biggest • Vision excites people, not past performances • Lead by the business case
How to thrive in this perfect storm • How to thrive in this perfect storm? • Business as usual is dead • Public pressures changes the way business is done • The whole world is in upheavel and changing constantly You/Me are changing • We are currently in an uncertain environment • Labour unrest • Political instability • Lack of leadership • Climate • Safety It is important to listen to the grasshoppers hop
Why do we fail? • "They miss the future" • Must understand the key trends • Trend #1 – March of connectivity • Trend #2 – Crisis of trust (Power shift from corporates to common connected people) • Trend #3 – Drive of technology (opportunities) • Afro-realism • You/me must fix the problem, government wont do it • Where there is trouble, there is also opportunity Information is important, but it is how we apply it that will define us
Political environment • ANC is becoming insecure on the back of growing support for DA and EFF • The NDP is best guide that government has provided and could kick start something positive • Implementation of the NDP is however important • ANC must make changes to stop the "bleeding" • However, the ANC struggles to apply these changes (tries to keep everybody happy and in the process can damage institutions and processes) • The ANC must decide whether or not to include or exclude private sector
Political environment • There is a current hostile environment towards the agricultural sector • Policies in the agricultural sector negatively affects employment • However, the agricultural sector is the only major sector that can make a significant difference in the rural areas • We must use this fact to our advantage (How?) • BEE and the entitlement culture must be replaced with a "will to succeed" culture
Economic overview (Schussler) • Agriculture is the only major industry in rural areas that can employ low skilled people across the country. • Faces higher wage costs as government was pressured and now agricultural employment looks set to dip again. • Agriculture can form the basis of growth in rural areas if given certainty. • Why when most claimants want money do we not give farmers certainty? • Can we not just say that government will pay compensation now but growth in rural areas is needed and for that you need certainty. • Can we transform land based on race rather than skills?
Economic overview (Schussler) • Cost pressure will remain. • Consumer / customers remain under pressure too. • Buy down trend in SA means agriculture needs to find markets outside the country. • AFRICA!!!!!!!!! • Government will struggle to listen to farmers unless farmers can get beyond the rhetoric. • Talk about the positive as the government needs it
Difference between a losing and winning nation • Not only one solution • Education • Certainty of choices • Implementation • Stability in macro-environment • Stability in micro-environment (concentrate on specific sectors that we can be competitive in) • People are the real assets of a country and we must start to make skills based decisions • Integrating and employing the skills of immigrants • 3 important factors • Concept of vision (NDP?) • Political will • Leadership
Panel discussion • Work with government – Asuf working towards plan • All stakeholders should come together to develop plan to support developing farms • Current plans are not working or lack of implementation • Politicians must bring specialists into play • Success stories exist – learn from it • Land audit extremely important • Private sector contribution to land reform is there • Trust has to be developed (stable policy environment) • Selection of beneficiaries a problem • Unproductive redistributed land
Panel discussion • How do we create trust? • Will not be easy • Must step up our game • Must do an economic business assessment • Must speak from one voice (uniformity of purpose) • Keep talking and talk to people that will listen
Farmaggeddon • The hidden cost of cheap meat and the devastating impact of factory farming on people, animals and our planet are not yet evident in South Africa • We must however learn from the developed world and not make the same mistakes • Consumer demand and trends are moving in this direction and cognisance must be taken of these trends • This is part of our future and strategies to accommodate this development must be incorporated to address these issues
Commodity outlook • Demand for agricultural products are increasing especially in Africa • But from where will production come? • South America and Africa is where the opportunities are • Positive outlook on most commodities
Effect on normal rainfall with Negative IOD + El Nino Combined effect Positive effect Combined effect Dry spell Normal Relative Effect No effect Negative effect Oct Jul Sep Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Aug Jun
Conclusion • Yes the perfect storm is here but it is also elsewhere • Hostile politics towards agriculture? • Ancient Chinese symbol for crises also means dangerous opportunity • It is important that we find common ground about the future of agriculture (i.e. same Agenda) • Tactical shifts on "their Agenda" will not work • After plans have been accepted implementation must follow – poor record • Will need SPV's and proper agreement(s) to implement