Wintertime Component of T-PARC Jan 2009 – March 2009

1. Yucheng Song & Zoltan Toth Talk prepared by Song &Toth reduced and given by Burridge on behalf of Uccelini who is in the KMA - questions to Uccelini tomorrow! Wintertime Component of T-PARCJan 2009 – March 2009 Environmental Modeling Center NOAA/NWS/NCEP USA Acknowledgements: Rick Rosen, Louis Uccellini, John Gaynor http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/tparc/ CAS Technical Conference, 15-16 November 2009, Incheon, Korea

2. Collaborative Effort of Multiple Agencies CONTRIBUTORS / PARTICIPANTS • Funding for observing assets • NOAA, Env. Canada, Roshydromet, Japan • Science / operational aspects • US, Canada, Mexico, Russia, Japan, ECMWF/UKMO (including Universities and Institutions) • Data archiving • NASA Langley Research Center Ackn: John Murray and Jared Entin (NASA)

3. MAIN THEME OF WINTER T-PARC Study the lifecycle of perturbations as they originate from the tropics, Asia, and/or the polar front, travel through the Pacific waveguide, and affect high impact wintertime weather events over North America and the Arctic Tropical flare-ups in western Pacific (IR) merge with Waves on westerly flow to influence Deep cyclogenesis in northeast Pacific Sensitive area 1, 00UTC 11 Oct Captured by Ensemble Transform KF targeting method Sensitive area 2, 00UTC 11 Oct Verification region, 12UTC 14 Oct

4. SCIENCE HYPOTHESES • Rossby-wave propagation plays a major role in the development of high impact weather events over North America and the Arctic on the 3-5 days forecast time scale • Additional remotely sensed and in situ data can complement the standard observational network in capturing critical multi-scale processes in Rossby-wave initiation and propagation • Adaptive configuration of the observing network and data processing can significantly improve the quality of data assimilation and forecast products • Regime dependent planning/targeting • Case dependent targeting • New DA, modeling and ensemble methods can better capture and predict the initiation and propagation of Rossby-waves leading to high impact events • Forecast products, including those developed as part of the TPARC research, will have significant social and/or economic value

5. ENHANCED OBSERVING PLATFORMS Extensive observational platforms during T-PARC winter phase allow us to track the potential storms and take additional observations as the perturbation propagate downstream into Arctic and North America Day -4-6 RAWIN Russia Arctic VR North America VR Day -5-6 E-AMDAR D -1-3 C-130 G-IV D -2-4 G-IV

6. Winter T-PARC platform statistics

7. March 1, 2009 CA Storm • Weather event with a large societal impact • Each GFS run verified against its own analysis – 60 hr forecast • Impact on surface pressure verification • RMS error improvement: 35.2% • (7.07mb vs. 9.56mb) • Targeted in high impact weather area marked by the circle Surface pressure from analysis (hPa; solid contours) Forecast Improvement (hPa, red) Forecast Degradation (hPa, blue)

8. Overall results for Surface pressure(T-PARC 2009) Error reductions on a case-by-case basis as much as 35% Improved Target Area Error without Dropsondes Verification Area Degraded Verification Domain Location/Time: case dependent Size: same for every case (1,000 km radius / sfc to 100mb) 8 Error with Dropsondes

9. T-PARC Summary statistics 39 OVERALL POSITIVE CASES. 13 OVERALL NEGATIVE CASES. 75% improved 25% degraded OVERALL EFFECT:

10. TARGETED DROPSONDE IMPACT ON 24H FORECAST ERROR IN NOGAPS/NAVDAS Jan 20/12UTC high impact per-observation Summed impact of dropsonde observations (error reduction is NEGATIVE, units are J kg-1) Courtesy of Rolf Langland

11. TARGETED RADIOSONDE IMPACT ON 24H FORECAST ERROR IN NOGAPS/NAVDAS JANUARY 2009 JANUARY 2009 Error Reduction Error Increase 1x10-3 J kg-1 (Moist Total Energy Norm) Total # targeted LH-EAMDAR ascent/descent data = 17,444 (12-31 January 2009) Total targeted LH-EAMDAR impact = -0.583 J kg-1 GLOBAL Lufthansa AMDAR ascent/descent impact = -2.89 J kg-1 and 113,151 data during all of January 2009 Total # of targeted radiosonde data = 27,508 (06UTC and 18UTC) Number of targeted radiosonde profiles = 247 (33 stations provided at least one profile) Total targeted radiosonde impact = -0.4322 J kg-1 For comparison: 00UTC and 12UTC observations from these same stations: -4.24 J kg-1 and 2,154 profiles during all of January 2009 Courtesy of Rolf Langland

12. Summary and Plans • Field phase successfully completed • First time vertical profiling of winter storms west of the dateline • Data archived at NASA (LARC) • Ideal framework for wide variety of research opportunities • Dynamical /physical processes • Storm initiation/propagation • Role of moist processes • Interaction of tropical convection with extra-tropical storms • Socio-economical impact studies • Need to identify funding resources for further research • Ongoing evaluation • NRL preliminary evaluation • large positive impact on the 24hr forecast • more than 90% of targeted observations reduced forecast errors • NCEP data denial experiments • Full T-PARC targeted data rejection – major impact • Rejection of aircraft data only (ongoing) • Proposed joint meeting with summer T-PARC next year