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Air Quality and Its Effects: The California Experience

Air Quality and Its Effects: The California Experience. John A. Romley , Ph.D. Research Assistant Professor Price School of Public Policy May 1, 2014. Air quality has been an important story for much of California. Los Angeles has been the lead character.

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Air Quality and Its Effects: The California Experience

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  1. Air Quality and Its Effects: The California Experience John A. Romley, Ph.D. Research Assistant Professor Price School of Public Policy May 1, 2014

  2. Air quality has been an important storyfor much of California

  3. Los Angeles has been the lead character City Hall during LA’s first “smog attack” in 1943 One coping strategy for a 1955 event City Hall on a good day in 2013 Sources: LA Times; LA Weekly

  4. Effects of air quality from the perspective of the dismal science • Like pollution levels, the health status of individuals varies by location, and is hard to measure • Health effects of pollution are overstated, if sicker people live in areas with more pollution • Neidell (2004) analyzed changes in asthma hospitalizations in LA zip codes as pollution varied randomly month by month… • …and found that reductions in carbon monoxide from 1992 through 1998 reduced admissions among children by 5-14% Quasi- experimental evidence Avoidance behavior Beyond short-term health effects

  5. Effects of air quality from the perspective of the dismal science • Individuals may take actions to minimize effects • Measured health effects reflect actual exposure • Unavoidable exposure results from unpredictable arrivals at the LA port, and from runway idling at LAX due to system delays (Neidell & Moretti, 2006; Schlenker & Walker, 2011) • Such exposure leads to much more severe health effects… …which suggests that avoidance behavior can be quite costly Quasi- experimental evidence Avoidance behavior Beyond short-term health effects

  6. Effects of air quality from the perspective of the dismal science • Childhood asthma is associated with obesity in young adults (Fletcher et al., 2010) • 10 μg/m3increase in PM2.5 outdoors leads to 6% decrease in productivity of indoor fruit packers in northern California (Chang et al., 2014) Quasi- experimental evidence Avoidance behavior Beyond short-term health effects

  7. California has led the United States in clearing the air • 2000: • Fresno • Asthmatic • Children’s • Environment • Study • 1966: • Auto emission • standards State and local • 1988: • Clean • Air • Act • 1967: • CA Air • Resources • Board • 1975: • 2 way • catalytic • converter • 1960: • Motor • Vehicle • Pollution • Control • Board • 1947: • LA county • pollution • district • 1990: • Clean • fuel, • cars • 1998: • Diesel emissions • found • toxic • 1952: • Science • of smog • known • 1943: • 1st smog • attack • 1984: • Vehicle inspections • 1969: • Air • standards • set 1940s 1940s 1950s 1950s 1980s 1960s 1990s 1970s • 1990: • Clean Air Act Amendments • 1970: • Clean Air Act Amendments • 1977: • Review of • standards • required Federal • 1971: • National air standards

  8. The progress is striking Sources: SCAQMD; CARB Ozone PM CO reductions through 1990s saved the lives of 1,000 infants (Currie & Neidell, 2004)

  9. Despite this progress, air pollution remains a significant problem for the state Ozone non-attainment areas

  10. Environmental pressures grow and grow Source: CARB

  11. Air quality as an element of social justice

  12. My work indicates that disparities in exposure interact with other factors Source: Hackbarth, Romley and Goldman (2011)

  13. In response, California continues to advance the story on U.S. environmental policy • Diesel fuel • Goods movement • Ports of Long Beach / LA • Low emissions vehicles • Greenhouse gas emissions • Solar power subsidies • Diesel fuel • Goods movement • Ports of Long Beach / LA • Low emissions vehicles • Greenhouse gas emissions • Solar power subsidies

  14. Heavy transport is a driver of air quality in the state • SCAQMD (2007): In LA basin, trucks, rail and ships generate • 10% of PM • 24% of NOx • 73% of SOx • Perez et al. (2009): Proximity to road traffic causes 9% of child asthma cases in Long Beach and 6% in Riverside • Ship emissions account for 21% of bronchitis cases Source: CARB

  15. Ongoing developments in heavy transport • CARB adopted low-sulfur diesel standard in 2003 • Many large diesel vehicles have been mandated to install filters, upgrade engines • State developed a Goods Movement Action Plan over 2005 - 2007 • One key goal is to reduce diesel PM emissions by 85% by 2020 • $1 billion in funding from Proposition 1B • Benefit-cost ratio put at anywhere from 3:1 to 8:1 • Ports of Long Beach / LA created clean air plan in 2006 • Diesel PM decreased 75% from 2005 – 2011 • Port modernization is doubling cargo capacity, with a controversial new railyard

  16. Looking back, and ahead • California has made substantial progress in improving air quality • Evidence of health effects at pollution levels below current standards continues to accumulate • Good physical and social science are needed to identify policy options & understand their costs and benefits… • …and good policy decisions are needed to advance the public interest

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