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Determining Alternative Futures - Urban Development Effects on Air Quality

Determining Alternative Futures - Urban Development Effects on Air Quality. Julide Kahyaoglu-Koracin and Darko Koracin. May 2007 Zagreb, Croatia. Objectives. Evaluate the impact of the four alternative futures on air quality in Southwest California

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Determining Alternative Futures - Urban Development Effects on Air Quality

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  1. Determining Alternative Futures - Urban Development Effects on Air Quality Julide Kahyaoglu-Koracin and Darko Koracin May 2007 Zagreb, Croatia

  2. Objectives • Evaluate the impact of the four alternative futures on air quality in Southwest California • Develop a modeling system to integrate projected land use patterns with atmospheric emissions and secondary pollutants, meteorology and dispersion, and transportation • Provide an assessment of the likelihood that San Diego County will violate various Federal and California Standards

  3. Framework for the assessment of air quality using an alternative futures methodology (Mouat et al., 2004)

  4. Species of interest Primary Pollutants: CO NOx SO2 PM2.5 , PM10 VOCs Secondary Pollutants O3 PM2.5

  5. Current non-attainment designations for San Diego County

  6. Major commuting zones and associated work centers

  7. Transportation modeling: Percentage of commuters traveling from home (rows) to work centers (columns)

  8. Total NOx Base Case Emissions

  9. (Shearer et al., 2004)

  10. Example of emissions estimates (tons/day) for existing conditions and the Coastal Future

  11. Mobile source emissions estimates (tons/day) for existing conditions and the Alternative Futures

  12. NOx emissions by source category Area Mobile Stationary Biogenic

  13. NOx emissions by scenario with 1,000k new residents Coastal Northern Regional Low Density Three Centers

  14. MM5 generatedone-hour average temperature, wind, and sea-level pressure for July 10, 2003, 10AM -> CAMx

  15. Maximum O3 for July 10, 2003

  16. Coastal Northern Regional Low Density Three Centers O3 difference distributions by scenario for 1,000k new residents

  17. Coastal Northern Regional Low Density Three Centers PM2.5 difference distribution by scenario for 1,000k new residents

  18. Predicted maximum ozone (ppb) values for five simulations and episode days

  19. Summary The addition of 500k or 1,000k residents to the study area appears to have a greater overall impact on air quality than does their distribution. Nevertheless the resultant differences in human activity influence air quality. The project developed a modeling system to predict air quality based on changes in land use patterns resulting from development and growth

  20. Summary (cont.) • The system coupled land-use predictions with transportation, emissions, meteorology, dispersion, and transportation models. • This tool can allow potential users to evaluate and assess other “least likely impacts” stemming from the impacts of future growth.

  21. Summary (cont.) • The area will continue to be in violation of the • annual Federal PM2.5 and California 1-hour O3 • standards, and is likely to be in violation of • the annual California PM2.5 and Federal 1-hour O3 • standards. • Regulators should focus on reducing primary • PM2.5

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