Data needs and priorities of research community for climate

1. The physical climate system Data needs and prioritiesof research communityfor climate Kevin Trenberth NCAR

2. Some key events • 2007 (Oct): Joint WCRP/IGBP /GCOS Workshop: Future Climate Change Research and Observations: GCOS, WCRP and IGBP Learning from the Fourth Assessment Report: Sydney, Australia • http://wcrp.wmo.int/documents/SydneyWorkshopRep_FINAL.pdf • Trenberth 2008 WMO Bull. • Doherty et al. 2009 BAMS • 2008 (May): World Modeling Summit for Climate Prediction: ECMWF, Reading, UK • 2009 (March): Joint IPCC/WCRP/IGBP Workshop: New Science Directions and Activities Relevant to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change: U. Hawaii, Honolulu, Hawaii • 2010 (Sept): WCRP-UNESCO Workshop:Metrics and methodologies of estimation of extreme climate events; Paris, France • Zolina et al. 2010 Eos

3. Global warming is “unequivocal”:Adaptation to climate change • Assess vulnerability • Devise coping strategies • Determine impacts of possible changes • Plan for future changes Requires information

4. WCRP Climate Information System Trenberth, 2008 WMO Bull

5. Doherty et al. 2009: BAMS (April issue) Lessons Learned from IPCC AR4: Scientific Developments Needed To Understand, Predict, And Respond To Climate Change

6. Doherty et al. 2009: BAMS (April issue) Recommendations: • 1) Improved process-level understanding, climate models, observations of climate-relevant parameters and climate monitoring systems are needed in specific areas. • 2) Because some degree of climate change is virtually certain (IPCC 2007), additional efforts are needed to make climate information more relevant to decisions concerning impacts, adaptation and mitigation.

7. Doherty et al. 2009: Key research needs • Improve models • Provide reliable climate forecasts 10-30 year time frame, with uncertainties • Predictions with regional-scale climate information, accounting for land surface processes and biosphere–atmosphere interactions • Ensure the observationalrecord: incl reprocessing and reanalysis

8. Doherty et al. 2009: Key research needs • Expand datasets to include observations of the impacts of climate change and to account for autonomous or planned adaptation. • Systematically monitor and assess vulnerability • Harmonize across climate, impacts, adaptation and vulnerability: consistent land use, land cover, emissions; climate assessments; historic and future • Better understand variations in the hydrological cycle, esp extremes

9. Doherty et al. 2009: Key research needs 9) Use physical process studies, observations, and syntheses to obtain a consensus on the possible nonlinear responses of ice sheets to climate change, including their influences on rates of sea level rise. 10) Improve process modeling and understanding of feedbacks in the carbon cycle across the earth system. 11) Improve understanding of the processes involved in aerosol indirect forcing

10. Modeling summit May 08 Develop strategy to revolutionize prediction of the climate through the twenty-first century and, in particular, to help address the threat of global climate change at the regional level. The outcome was the recommendation of a “Climate Prediction Project” http://wcrp.ipsl.jussieu.fr/Workshops/ModelingSummit/Documents/FinalSummitStat_6_6.pdf Subsequently, series of articles in BAMS

11. An Earth System Prediction Initiative

12. Modeling summit repercussions Subsequently, series of articles in BAMS: Shapiro, M., et al., 2007: The socio-economic and environmental benefits of a revolution in weather, climate and Earth system analysis and prediction. The Full Picture, Group on Earth Observation, 136–138. Hurrell, J. W., et al., 2009: A unified modeling approach to climate system prediction. BAMS, 90, 1819–1832. Meehl, G., et al., 2009: Decadal prediction: Can it be skillful? BAMS, 90, 1467–1485. Shukla, J., et al. 2009: Revolution in climate prediction is both necessary and possible: A declaration at the World Modelling Summit for Climate Prediction. BAMS, 90, 175–178. Shapiro et al., 2010: An earth-system prediction initiative for the Twenty-first Century. BAMS, 91, 1377-1388. Nobre, C., et al., 2010: Addressing the complexity of the earth system. BAMS, 91, 1389–1396. Brunet, G., et al., 2010: Collaboration of the weather and climate communities to advance subseasonal to seasonal prediction. BAMS, 91, 1397–1406. Shukla, et al., 2010: Toward a new generation of world climate research and computing facilities. BAMS, 91, 1407–1412.

13. From Hollingsworth et al. 2005

14. Weather Prediction (T1279, ~15 km)compared with Satellite ObservationsECMWF predictions and Meteosat observationsMartin Miller and Peter Bechtold (ECMWF)

15. 2009 Hawaii Meeting New Science Directions and Activities Relevant to the Fifth Assessment Report of the IPCC •  Important emerging science topics, (WG I): • sea level and ice sheet instabilities; • • detection & attribution on the regional level, and of extremes; • • methodology of multi-model ensembles; • • cloud and aerosol processes and associated uncertainties; • • atmospheric chemistry and climate; • • Earth System modeling of climate, including biogeochemistry and land-surface interactions; • • coverage of the full range of possible futures. • Expert meetings proposed: • Joint WGI-WGII IPCC Expert Meeting on "The Methodology of Detection and Attribution • on Decreasing Space Scales and Extremes". • WGI Expert Meeting on "The Methodology Multi-Model Ensembles and Model Metrics"

16. Other key events in 2009 WCC-3 emphasised the essential roles of observation and research in providing the basis for climate services OceanObs ’09 developed a common vision for provision of routine and sustained global information on the marine environment Towards a Global Framework for Climate Services

17. WCRP extremes workshop Workshop on metrics and methodologies of estimation of extreme climate events: WCRP-UNESCO (GEWEX/CLIVAR/IHP) • UNESCO, Paris: 27-30 Sept 2010 • Chair: Olga Zolina • 132 from 32 countries • Oral, poster, discussion sessions; 3 Breakout Groups • Community white paper, Eos* and BAMS(?) article • http://www.extremeworkshop.org/ Goal: To provide much improved observational datasets and model capabilities on variability and extremes, especially those that have high impacts on society and the environment; and develop a climate information system that include predictions and assessments of future changes in risk from extremes. *21 Dec 2010 issue

18. Reason for focus on extremes Mean A: 50°F, s.d. 10°F

19. Reason for focus on extremes Shift in climate: from A to B Most of time the values are the same (green). Biggest changes in extremes: >200% Mean A: 50°F, s.d. 10°F Mean B: 55°F, s.d. 10°F

20. Issues for extremes • High resolution observations are not available (hourly) • High resolution model data often not saved • Model results typically not available or archived • Model definitions are often different from obs • Model grid box value may not be comparable to mean of grid box from observations • Ability and utility of models • Model extremes are not well simulated. • Improvements of models (intensity, frequency of precip etc) • Improvements in resolution

21. An Opportunity A milestone in developing the WCRP Strategy and an opportunity to sense the views of the community Major research opportunity

22. Earth system complexity National Academy of Sciences: Keck Mural