1 / 38

NCGA - -Corn Update and Outlook

NCGA - -Corn Update and Outlook. National Corn Growers Association. NCGA is a Federation, comprised of:. 25 State Grower Affiliated Associations 23 Checkoff Boards 300,000+ Checkoff Investors 32,000+ Members. CO. Ex: 83.5 m. ac. 180 bu./acre. ~10% of gasoline mkt.

ina
Download Presentation

NCGA - -Corn Update and Outlook

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. NCGA - -Corn Update and Outlook

  2. National Corn Growers Association NCGA is a Federation, comprised of: • 25 State Grower Affiliated Associations • 23 Checkoff Boards • 300,000+ Checkoff Investors • 32,000+ Members CO

  3. Ex: 83.5 m. ac. 180 bu./acre ~10% of gasoline mkt. ~5 billion bu. demand 8 years for infrastructure development NCGA’s Vision Dozens of yield-acreage combos get us there “15 x 15 x 15” • 15 billion bushel corn crop • 15 billion gallons of ethanol • …by 2015

  4. How Will We Get There? An example of making the unimaginable a reality Source: USDA

  5. Corn Yield Trends Are Accelerating 200 178 175 164 Source: USDA

  6. Transgenic Field Trial Release Permits2005-June 2007 • PIPELINE TRAITS NCGA MEMBERS ARE EXCITED ABOUT: • Drought tolerance • Nitrogen utilization • Yield enhancement • Ethanol-specific traits • In-seed enzyme • Ferm. enhancement • DDG feed enhancement Data Source: USDA, APHIS

  7. 300 250 200 Average Corn Yield (in bushels per acre) 150 Average U.S. Corn Yield in 2006 was 149 Bushels Per Acre 100 50 0 1970 1990 2010 2030 Historical Yield Projection 30-Year Trend, Based on Historical Yield Projection Molecular Breeding Benefit Biotechnology Yield Benefit Step-Changes in Corn Potential Source: Monsanto

  8. How Will We Get There? Equivalent to projected amount of corn fed to hogs in 06/07 (~1 bil. bu.) Source: PRX

  9. How Will We Get There? Cellulose is Here! U.S. renewable fuels production – billions of gallons (Numbers, scale and years estimated for illustrative purposes only) Source: NCGA

  10. Yes, Corn Prices are Higher But what impact has that had on retail food prices? Source: USDA, ERS Feed Grains Database (Cent. Illinois), http://www.ers.usda.gov/Data/FeedGrains/

  11. Retail Food Items Contain Very Little Corn Sources: Beef Checkoff; National Pork Board; USDA-ERS

  12. Grocery Bill Comparison for Selected Items • Aggregate increase for these items from June 06 to June 07 is 5.5%... • However, June 07 prices are only 3.4% higher than June 05 prices • 25-Year average annual food inflation is 2.9% Source: BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS http://data.bls.gov/PDQ/outside.jsp?survey=ap *2005 DATA FOR CHICKEN BREAST NOT AVAILABLE. VALUE IS 2006 AVERAGE PRICE

  13. The Impact on Retail Food Prices USDA Forecast

  14. Current Prices Not Unprecedented Source: USDA, ERS and ProExporter Network

  15. Myth: Ethanol Cuts U.S. Corn Exports to Hungry Countries Highest since 1989 • U.S. is world’s leading corn exporter • Exports are UP in 06-07 • Most U.S. exports go to livestock feed in developed countries • Ethanol production contributes DDGS to export market • “Scarcity of Food” is not the issue! Source: USDA-FAS

  16. How Will We Get There? • Grain/Starch Contribution • Cellulose Contribution • Wood Chips, Municipal Wastes, Other • Conservation • Higher Mileage • Plug-in Hybrid FFVs • Windpower • New Technologies Still to Come…

  17. Sources: Agricultural Chemical Usage 2004 Vegetables Summary (NASS, 2005) Agricultural Chemical Usage 2005 Fruits Summary (NASS, 2006) Agricultural Chemical Usage 2005 Field Crops Summary (NASS, 2006)

  18. Sources: Agricultural Chemical Usage 2004 Vegetables Summary (NASS, 2005) Agricultural Chemical Usage 2005 Fruits Summary (NASS, 2006) Agricultural Chemical Usage 2005 Field Crops Summary (NASS, 2006)

  19. Source: USDA, NASS Agricultural Chemical Usage Report

  20. Source: USDA, NASS Agricultural Chemical Usage Report

  21. Source: USDA, NASS Agricultural Chemical Usage Report * 2004 data estimated

  22. 2006 CTIC Tillage Survey – Reporting Percent Residue Cover Management Conventional 0-15% Reduced 15-30% Conservation +30%

  23. Erosion on U.S. Cropland by Year Source: NRCS, January 2007

  24. American Soybean Association Bunge Limited Cargill Conservation Int’l DuPont General Mills Grocery Manufacturers/ Food Products Assocs. The H. John Heinz III Center for Science, Economics and the Environment Mars, Inc. McDonald’s Monsanto National Corn Growers Association National Cotton Council of America The Nature Conservancy United Soybean Board Wal-Mart Stores, Inc. World Wildlife Fund - US Creating Sustainable Outcomes for Agriculture

  25. US Corn Acreage * * *Projected Source; USDA, NASS; ProExporter Network

  26. US Corn Supply * * *Projected Source; USDA, ERS; ProExporter Network

  27. US Corn Supply and Demand Source: ProExporter Network

  28. 14.0 12.9 10.8 6.6 4.9 US Ethanol Supply and Demand Supply

  29. US Fuel Ethanol Demand (Long-Run) *Projected Source; USDA, ERS; ProExporter Network

  30. US Corn Demand – Domestic Livestock(Long-Run) *Projected Source; USDA, ERS; ProExporter Network

  31. Corn Demand by Species Source: ProExporter Network

  32. Corn Prices: A New Plateau? Data Source: PRX

  33. Other Near-Term Opportunities for Corn • Plastics and Polymers • PLA • PHA • 1,3 PDO • Corn Ethanol as a Platform Chemical • Ethyl Lactate • Ethyl Succinate • Dozens of other high-value compounds • Corn Oil to Biodiesel • Cellulosic Ethanol (pericarp & stover)

  34. Lots of Action in DC • Farm Bill – Revenue CC • Energy Bill – 15 billion Gallon RFS • WRDA • WTO

  35. Summary • Demand for ethanol will continue to surge through 08/09 • Corn demand for other uses likely to remain flat • Corn yield per acre will continue accelerated growth • Corn acres will increase incrementally • A 14-15 billion bushel crop by 2015 seems feasible • Distillers grains will displace more corn in feed rations • New trait releases must not disrupt grain trade • The “Food vs. Fuel” argument is misguided • The corn industry has the know-how,technology and ingenuity to satisfy demand for food, feed AND fuel in an environmentally friendly way.

  36. Thank You! For more information visit www.ncga.com

More Related