Intergenerational Mobility in Singapore: Lessons from International Research

1. Intergenerational Mobility in Singapore: Lessons from International Research Irene Y.H. Ng swknyhi@nus.edu.sg 27 March 2014 Civil Service College

2. Outline • Definition • The Singapore case • Explaining mobility patterns • Inequality • Welfare system • Education system • Education & mobility • Wrap-up

3. Mobility: I can achieve a different status from where I started off Defining Mobility • Intergenerational mobility: I can achieve a different status from my parents Relative mobility: I earn more than my peers although my parents earned less than their peers Absolute mobility: I earn more than my parents

4. b (Gradient) in Singapore Current intergenerational mobility moderate to moderately low => consistent with our political economy => will be of increasing challenge in future

5. Explaining Mobility: Income Inequality The Great Gatsby curve Andrews & Leigh (2009), Corak (2013) – empirical Solon (2004), Ho (2010) - theoretical -> Inequality leads to immobility

6. Market & Net Standardized Gini Index (Solt 2011) Source: Ng (2013). Welfare Attitudes of Singaporeans

7. Explaining Mobility: Welfare Systems Black & Devereux (2010): • Scandinavia mobility increased due to establishment of welfare states • U.S. mobility decreased due to weakening labour unions Causa et al. (2009) • Studied 14 European OECD Countries • More progressive tax system, stronger unions => higher income mobility

8. Explaining Mobility: Education System Solon, 2004; Ichino, Karabarbounis, & Moretti, 2009; Davies, Zhang & Zeng, 2004; Ho, 2010: Lower mobility from • Private education • Differentiated system • Less progressive spending

9. Source: Ng (forthcoming) Social Class, Poverty and Family Life – An East Asian Perspective

10. Explaining Mobility: Education System Pekkarinen et al. (2009) Comprehensive school reform in Finland – replaced two-track system with uniform nine-years • Shifted streaming to academic and vocational tracks from age 11 to 16 • income correlation decreased by 23% from .3 to .23

11. http://www.moe.gov.sg/education/landscape/print/sg-education-landscape-print.pdfhttp://www.moe.gov.sg/education/landscape/print/sg-education-landscape-print.pdf

12. Mean Value and Distribution of PISA 2012 Mathematics Scores (Top 15 Economies) Switzerland

13. Relationship between PISA Mathematics Performance and Socioeconomic Background (Top 15 Economies)

14. Dependence of PISA 2012 Mathematics Performance on Parents’ SES explained by…

15. Explaining Mobility: Education System Park (2013) using PISA various years 2007 education reform in Japan & Korea: decentralize, individualize, increase flexibility and choice

16. Explaining Mobility: Higher Education Blanden, Gregg & Machin (2005): UK Yeung (2012): China Hong Kong Institute of Education (2013) Expansion of higher education widens disparity in educational attainment of rich and poor

17. Singapore’s Education System • Increasing differentiation • Expansion of university spaces • Increasing tuition fees • favour students from wealthier families?

18. Singapore’s Education System BUT • Heavy government investments in the different tracks • Many bursaries and scholarships • Continuing education and training framework

19. Intergenerational Mobility: Accumulation through Life Course

20. Conclusion • PCF • Eton School House Wide & widening wage gap Residual welfare

21. Conclusion Intergenerational mobility will be an increasing challenge • Immobility-reinforcing effects of our systems • Policy can shape intergenerational mobility • Broad, not remedial & peripheral, policies E.g. Ermisch et al.: “A reduction in the variance of school quality…..would make a larger contribution (than more equal access to good secondary schools)” E.g. labour market reforms, not just financial handouts • Evaluate policy changes

22. Thank you

23. Ng et al. (forthcoming) Social Infrastructure Development