Whatever happened to rational government ?

1. Whatever happened to rational government ? Jeff Jones

2. I am not the first We live in a society exquisitely dependent on science and technology, in which hardly anyone knows anything about science and technology. Sagan Human history becomes more and more a race between education and catastrophe. H G Wells Only two things are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former. Einstein

3. There was no golden age: but… • 1963 – White heat of technology • 1965 – Quantitative national plan • 2017 – We don’t need experts • 2018 – Global warming is a communist hoax

4. Examples of failure to influence • World model • Energy demand • Performance measurement • Target setting • EU expansion • Population growth

5. World model • Systems Dynamic model of UK and world economy, building in resource constraints and investment • Forecast resource price rises soon after 2000, and recession starting around 2005 - 2010 • Wrote to Chief Economist, offering to build a model of UK investment, with proper treatment of time lags • No reply • Wrote again, suggesting need to plan for possible recession • Reply said UK will never have a recession again, economists know how to control the economy

6. UK Energy demand • Simulation /econometric model of total UK energy demand • Counter-intuitive results • Offering free house insulation increases energy demand • Only increased energy price reduces demand • Vacillating government policy ever since

7. OUTPUT & PERFORMANCE MEASUREMENT • Financial Management Initiative – 1982 • Published detailed guidance – 1985/6 • Next Steps – 1986 • Prime Minister changes: • 1990 • 1997 • 2007 • 2010 • 2016 • Institute for Government

8. Policy and targets • Best way of expressing targets • Optimal values • Relationship to party policy • Election campaigns on the hoof

9. EU EXPANSION • Analysed new voting rules for European Parliament • Used Latin hypercube sampling • Prime Minister failed to understand • Instruction from Deputy PM not to send complicated material to PM

10. POPULATION MATTERS • GDP per capita • Impact on growth of population change • Housing needs, and the Green Belt • Food security • Differential birth rates • MP’s circulated, but uninterested

11. Where does the fault lie ? • Within OR • In the political class • General philosophy

12. Problems within OR • The extreme complexity of some current models: • New techniques (eg: fuzzy logic, machine learning, heuristics) • Counter-intuitive behaviour • But due to the complexity of modern society • Explaining to the clients • Allowing enough time to explain and illustrate • Lack of contact with clients • For very senior management/Ministers, intermediate management layers

13. WITHIN THE POLITICAL CLASS • Education and experience • Short termism • Party politics • Source of party policies

14. GENERAL PHILOSOPHY • The Two Cultures • Media preference for the “arts” • Creativity thought to be solely a aspect of the arts • Post-modernism • Even OR not immune • The “Hoax” - Sokol • Simplification of ideas (“medianisation” – dumbing down) • Populism

15. What can we do ? • Communicate better (eg: through the media) • Boast about our achievements more • Run courses for politicians • Be prepared, as a body, to denounce lies and false logic