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Extreme oceanic events

Extreme oceanic events. David Griffin CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research. Special thanks to. Madeleine Cahill George Cresswell and Jason Middleton John Wilkin and Alan Pearce Peter Campbell, Jason Waring, Kim Badcock (and the whole remote sensing group) Jim Mansbridge

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Extreme oceanic events

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  1. Extreme oceanic events David Griffin CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research

  2. Special thanks to • Madeleine Cahill • George Cresswell and Jason Middleton • John Wilkin and Alan Pearce • Peter Campbell, Jason Waring, • Kim Badcock (and the whole remote sensing group) • Jim Mansbridge • The Bluelink and IMOS communities (many great people) • Peter Thompson, referees and the panel

  3. 1995 Mass Mortality of Pilchard –due to an extreme ocean event? ?

  4. Event was extreme but not unprecedented • Shift focus to the virus • Exposed ill-preparedness for addressing urgent questions • Assembling data took too long • Available data were too few • Too hard to know ‘how anomalous’ various observations were • Nevertheless, I think we got it right • BTW, the next comparable upwelling was not til 2010:

  5. 2010 upwelling event, similar to 1995:

  6. The cause: occasional summer wind pattern Sea level anomaly wind High Sea Surface Temperature

  7. Next, two Qld events. Ocean impact unnoticed?

  8. beautiful one day….(9 Feb 1997) Sea level anomaly Sea Surface Temperature

  9. TC Andrew (25 March 1997) the next. Sea level anomaly Sea Surface Temperature

  10. Month later: cold along NGBR Sea level anomaly

  11. 16 March 2010: TC ULUI Sea level anomaly L

  12. 25 May (TC ULUI + 40d)

  13. 30 June 2010 (TC ULUI + 110d) Fast current, Possible upwelling

  14. Tropical cyclones on NWS: hazard to oil and gas.TC Phil 31 Dec 1996, cat 3 but slow moving

  15. More recently (15 March 2012) TC Lua

  16. 20 March 2012 (TC Lua + 5d)

  17. Chlor-a for same day(new on IMOS OceanCurrent): 100km.100km.30m =60t chl-a

  18. Highest-ever sea level at Fremantle, 2pm WST: surge tide 3h period seiche (Molloy, 2001) Leeuwin MSL

  19. Two weeks before storm: Leeuwin 0.4m Cold core eddy

  20. ROAM sea level, 10-12 June 2012. Rottnest Is Cockburn Sound Leeuwin Sea level anomaly N E 180km

  21. CSIRO Bluelink Relocatable Ocean Atmosphere Model sea level, 10 June 2012 200m 1000m

  22. 2pm WST 10 June 2012

  23. Cockburn Sound.Highest sea level: 2pm WST 10 June 2012: Photo: Steve Brooks, Perth Weather Live Photo Credit: Steve Brooks, PerthWeatherLive

  24. A few days later Photo: Steve Brooks, Perth Weather Live

  25. Median energy flux of ocean currents 0 Median non-tidal current speed 0.8 (m/s) Insert presentation title

  26. Median energy flux of ocean currents 0 Median non-tidal current speed 0.8 (m/s) Insert presentation title

  27. CyclonicEddy (Low sealevel) Is it real? Yes, see drifter. Is it extraordinary? Lets look at some history

  28. Maximum (in 1994-2011) gridded altimetric (+ filtered tidegauge) sea level anomaly: +1m SLA -1m wide range: 0.3m to 1.1m

  29. 99th percentile anomaly (exceeded 1% of time) - the max is 30% higher than this 0.2m 0.7m +1m SLA -1m

  30. 1st percentile anomaly (exceeded 99% of time) +1m SLA -1m -0.7m

  31. Lowest sea level is 30% lower than 1st %-ile -1m Insert presentation title

  32. Maximum anomaly map again.highest highs are south of the lowest lows +1m SLA -1m Lowest low was here Highest high Is here

  33. Median elevation (50th percentile)near zero – i.e. distribution is fairly symmetric +1m SSHA -1m

  34. CyclonicEddy (Low sealevel) Is it real? Yes, see drifter. Is it extraordinary? Letsuse that history

  35. 16 Jan 2011: Many extreme highs and lows 1.5m/s Insert presentation title

  36. Back 4 days (to 12 Jan) flood Insert presentation title

  37. Back 4 days (to 8 Jan) Pre flood: Sea level extreme Insert presentation title

  38. Back 4 days (to 4 Jan) Insert presentation title

  39. Back 4 days (to 31 Dec) Insert presentation title

  40. Back 4 days (to 27 Dec) Insert presentation title

  41. Back 4 days (to 23 Dec) Insert presentation title

  42. That high sea level all along the Qld-NSW coast was not a ‘storm surge’ • Coastal sea level was very high. Anomaly of nearshore current was zero. Odd situation – still needs investigation. • Lets now go back to 16 Jan then step forward.

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