Jeff Rodgers (ODFW) & Dan Rawding (WDFW)

1. Integrated Status & Trend (ISTM) Project: An overview of establishing, evaluating and modifying monitoring priorities for LCR Steelhead Jeff Rodgers (ODFW) & Dan Rawding (WDFW)

2. Lower Columbia River Pilot Project • Chum, coho, fall Chinook, late fall Chinook, spring Chinook, winter steelhead, summer steelhead – ESA listed • Multi-jurisdictional • State recover plans need integrated & coordinated monitoring

3. Five basic objectives of ISTM Identify & prioritize decisions, questions, and objectives Review existing programs and designs and identify gaps Identify monitoring designs, sampling frames, protocols, and analytical tools Use trade-off analyses to develop recommendations for monitoring Recommend implementation and reporting mechanisms

4. Objective 1: Identify & prioritize decisions, questions, and objectives

5. Objective 1: Identify & prioritize decisions, questions, and objectives Guidance • State Recovery Plans • Statewide Monitoring Documents • NOAA ESA Monitoring Guidance • NPCC Columbia River MERR Plan • Two workshops

6. Winter Steelhead VSP Indicator Relative Priorities

7. Winter Steelhead Prioritization “Filters” Mark recapture being conducted Productivity testing.

8. Total Species Population Score = (ΣAll indicator Scores for a Species & Population) x ((2 x Recovery Priority Score) + Current Natural Origin Abundance Score + In/Out Potential Score + Special Cases Score)/5)

9. Objective 2: Review existing programs and designs and identify gaps

10. Objective 2: Review existing programs and designs and identify gaps • Build off the indicators developed in Objective 1 • Develop criteria to assess bias and precision of indicators derived from different monitoring approaches • Identify the monitoring gaps (difference between priority and current monitoring) • Outline specific monitoring needs based on the gaps

11. Scoring Criteria Developed For: • Fry/parr abundance using snorkeling &/or electrofishing • Abundance of juvenile migrants using mark-recapture • Juvenile migrant abundance using weirs • Adult recruitment based on CWT program • Adult recruitment based on Columbia River fisheries monitoring • Adult spawner abundance using the Petersen mark-recapture • Adult spawner abundance using weirs • Adult spawner abundance using the Jolly-Seber • adult spawner abundance using periodic live counts area-under-the-curve (AUC) • adult spawner abundance using the peak count expansion • adult spawner abundance using redd counts • Age structure • Migration/spawning timing • Sex ratio • Origin • Juvenile distribution • Spawner distribution

12. Quantitative Criteria • Unbiased estimates are important so we emphasize assumption, selectivity, and goodness of fit testing of methods. • Precision for abundance (CV < 15%) for adults and juveniles, except an adult CV < 25% for populations with low recovery priority. These standards are 95% CI +30% and + 50% • Precision standards for age, origin, and sex are 95% CI + 5% for high priority recovery populations and + 10% for other populations.

13. Effect of proportion • on 95% CI • 95% CI is dome shaped • greatest uncertainty in the 95% CI is when the proportion = 50% • Effect of Sample Size • on 95% CI • assuming 50% of the fish are one age, sex, or origin • need 100 biological samples to meet + 10%, and • 400 samples to meet + 5% • difficulty in obtaining sufficient sample sizes from • small populations especially under high turbid water

14. General scoring criteria for VSP indicators and rationale used to assess alignment of monitoring programs

15. Criteria for scoring programs that monitor the index of juvenile abundance.

17. Oregon Winter Steelhead: Scoring of Current or Planned Monitoring Needs: • Fry/Parr abundance & distribution: Add additional 2 person crew for separate Cascade and Gorge strata inferences. Ways to distinguish StW & StS. • JOM: Need to reduce potential bias of Clackamas data and improve precision of Sandy and Hood data. Ways to distinguish StW & StS. • Recruits: Evaluate creel designs. CWT program using local wild broodstock. CVs for harvest and release mortality rates. • Spawner abundance, distribution, and timing: Test assumptions on redd life, sex ratios, and observation probability. Potential spatial bias in Sandy and Clackamas (visibility and hatchery fish). More effort in Hood. • Age, sex, origin: Develop programs in most populations, evaluate selectivity and spatial biases. Increase effort in Hood.

18. Washington Winter Steelhead: Scoring of Current or Planned Monitoring Needs: • Parr abundance & distribution: Develop parr monitoring program similar to ODFW. • Spawner abundance, distribution, and timing: Explore ways to decrease variability in females per redd & redd duration to improve precision. Implement new sampling design based on redd modeling and sample frame. • Recruits: Add periodic angler surveys for each population & collect and analyze steelhead genetic samples from spring Chinook onboard monitoring. • Age, sex, origin: Few spawners leads to insufficient adult biological samples. Solutions are increase abundance or explore hierarchical modeling. Implement selectivity tests for bias and age sampling at Barrier Dam (Cowlitz).

19. Summary & So What? • Template that can be used to provide unbiased, repeatable, and documented identification of monitoring priorities and needs • Graphical output easily understood and communicated • Allows regional funding decisions to be developed under a common framework

20. Questions?