Does (will) global environmental change accelerate immigration?

1. Does (will) global environmental change accelerate immigration? Prof. Andrew Millington Dept. of Geography, TAMU millington@geog.tamu.edu 'Migration, Immigration & Changing Borders' TAMU Office of Intenational Outreach, Dec 1st 2006

2. Would you know an environmental migrant if you saw one? 'Migration, Immigration & Changing Borders' TAMU Office of Intenational Outreach, Dec 1st 2006

3. Environmental migrants and refugees • 175 million people live outside their country of birth • 10-11 million refugees from armed conflicts • 12-25 million refugees from natural disasters and famine • Majority of environmental migrants/refugees have moved since 1980 • Cross-border migrants • currently mainly social and economic opportunists • economic migrants fastest growing group • Internally displaced persons • currently mainly environmental and political refugees 'Migration, Immigration & Changing Borders' TAMU Office of Intenational Outreach, Dec 1st 2006

4. Refugees and environmental refugees 'Migration, Immigration & Changing Borders' TAMU Office of Intenational Outreach, Dec 1st 2006

5. Refugees and environmental refugees • Similarities between traditional and environmental refugees • Forced nature of migration • Need for material assistance • Need for permission to re-locate • Debate raging at present: • Should environmental migrants be treated, and have same status as, traditional refugees as codified in International Law and guarded by the UN? 'Migration, Immigration & Changing Borders' TAMU Office of Intenational Outreach, Dec 1st 2006

6. Defining environmental refugees • Originally identified and broadly defined by UN researcher El-Hinnawai (1985). • “People who migrate from their usual residence due to changes in their ambient non-human environment” Diane Bates (2002) 'Migration, Immigration & Changing Borders' TAMU Office of Intenational Outreach, Dec 1st 2006

7. (Global) Environmental change • Global environmental change • Systemic change • Climate change • Cumulative change • Deforestation, desertification • Regional and local environmental change • Water pollution 'Migration, Immigration & Changing Borders' TAMU Office of Intenational Outreach, Dec 1st 2006

8. Migrants from disasters • Rapid onset • Natural or technological FOR MORE INFO... Link> Montserrat Juicy Geography 'Migration, Immigration & Changing Borders' TAMU Office of Intenational Outreach, Dec 1st 2006

9. Migrants from expropriation • Rapid onset • Development or Ecocide FOR MORE INFO... Link>International Rivers Network 'Migration, Immigration & Changing Borders' TAMU Office of Intenational Outreach, Dec 1st 2006

10. Migrants from deterioration • Slow onset • Pollution or Depletion FOR MORE INFO... Link> UNEP GRID 'Migration, Immigration & Changing Borders' TAMU Office of Intenational Outreach, Dec 1st 2006

11. Internal Displacement • Internally displaced persons - IDPs FOR MORE INFO... Link> Population Reference Bureau 'Migration, Immigration & Changing Borders' TAMU Office of Intenational Outreach, Dec 1st 2006

12. Earthquakes and IDPs Earthquake data 1901-2005 (Pop Ref Bureau) FOR MORE INFO... Link> Population Reference Bureau 'Migration, Immigration & Changing Borders' TAMU Office of Intenational Outreach, Dec 1st 2006

13. 'Migration, Immigration & Changing Borders' TAMU Office of Intenational Outreach, Dec 1st 2006

14. Environmentally-IDPs in the USA • Hurricane Katrina • “In…14 days the hurricane scattered as many as 1 million evacuees across the US…” • “Many evacuees are putting down roots in new areas and saying they’ll never return.” • “…the largest displacement of Americans in 150 years…as if the entire Dust Bowl occurred in 14 days” Peter Grier, Christian Science Monitor, Sept 12 2005 'Migration, Immigration & Changing Borders' TAMU Office of Intenational Outreach, Dec 1st 2006

15. Environmentally-IDPs in the USA 'Migration, Immigration & Changing Borders' TAMU Office of Intenational Outreach, Dec 1st 2006

16. International environmental refugees: Haiti • 20% (1.3 million) of population emigrated, 300 000 to USA • Political oppression • Environmental basis • High population growth • 33% of land suitable for cultivated: 60% cultivated • 80% population chronically malnourished • Cost of Haitian migrants to Florida $250 million • 17x USAID annual spent on environmental safeguards in entire Caribbean 'Migration, Immigration & Changing Borders' TAMU Office of Intenational Outreach, Dec 1st 2006

17. International environmental migration: historical contexts 'Migration, Immigration & Changing Borders' TAMU Office of Intenational Outreach, Dec 1st 2006

18. Poverty Voluntary economic opportunists Migration gradient Driven outright by environmental pressures 'Migration, Immigration & Changing Borders' TAMU Office of Intenational Outreach, Dec 1st 2006

19. Where are today’s 25 million environmental migrants? • Africa – 16 million • Sahel (5 mill), Horn and Sudan (4 mill) • China – 6 million • Mexico – 1 million • 135 million - threatened by severe desertification • 550 million – nations with chronic water shortages 'Migration, Immigration & Changing Borders' TAMU Office of Intenational Outreach, Dec 1st 2006

20. …and tomorrow’s environmental migrants? • 37 million by 2010 • Most in sub-Saharan Africa • Global change • Drought – 50 million • Sea Level Rise – 162 million • Bangladesh 26, Egypt 21, China 73, India 20, Small Island States 31 • 180 million - threatened by severe desertification • 1 billion – nations with chronic water shortages FOR MORE INFO... Link>Tearfund ‘Feeling the Heat’ 'Migration, Immigration & Changing Borders' TAMU Office of Intenational Outreach, Dec 1st 2006

21. Tomorrow’s environmental migrants – Tomorrow’s world • Asian migrants to Europe and North America? • Caribbean and Latin American migrants to North America and Europe? • Asian migrants to Australia and NZ? • Internally displaced persons? 'Migration, Immigration & Changing Borders' TAMU Office of Intenational Outreach, Dec 1st 2006

22. Does (will) global environmental change accelerate immigration? • Does global environmental change accelerate immigration? √ Majority of 25million environmental migrants since 1980 – 1995 ? Some not due to global environmental change but other hazards X Most of IDPs, not immigrants • Will global environmental change accelerate immigration? √ Environmental migrants projected to double by 2010 ? Some not due to global environmental change but other hazards X Many still IDPs, but more will migrate 'Migration, Immigration & Changing Borders' TAMU Office of Intenational Outreach, Dec 1st 2006

23. Responsibilities and Responses • Analogies with the ‘polluter pays principle’ • Increase the legal scope of refugee • Better understanding of interplay of causes of migration • Better targeting of aid monies • Recognition of the value of refugees in a globalized economy 'Migration, Immigration & Changing Borders' TAMU Office of Intenational Outreach, Dec 1st 2006

24. Would you know an environmental migrant if you saw one? 'Migration, Immigration & Changing Borders' TAMU Office of Intenational Outreach, Dec 1st 2006