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2050 Global Energy

2050 Global Energy. Institute of Energy Strategy General Director Prof . , PhD V.V. Bushuev 5 th International Energy Week Moscow , 25 th October 2010. Global cycles & dynamics. Liberalization Postindustrial development 1980-2000 th. Industrial & ecological development

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2050 Global Energy

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  1. 2050 Global Energy Institute of Energy Strategy General Director Prof., PhD V.V. Bushuev 5th International Energy Week Moscow, 25th October 2010

  2. Global cycles & dynamics Liberalization Postindustrial development 1980-2000th Industrial & ecological development State regulation 2020-3030th Industrialization State regulation 1950-1960th Crisis of virtual economy 2008-2010th Crisis of the industrial phase 2050th The Great Depression 1930th Energy crisis of 1970th Battle for resources after the Cold war 1

  3. Global energy consumption dynamics Crisis of the 2050th Crisis of the 2010th Global primary energy consumption, btce Crisis of the 1970th Crisis of the 193th Electricity & petrol Gas & nuclear New energy sources Coal Renewables 2

  4. Globakl energy scenarios 2050 Reference scenario Innovative scenario Global primary energy consumption, btce Divergence 2030th Crisis of the 2050th Stagnation scenario Crisis of the 2010th 3

  5. Energy efficiency & global energy scenarios Global GDP, trln 2009 USD, PPP Global energy consumption, btoe Fact Reference scenario Stagnation scenario Innovative scenario - Energy-intensive - Energy savings - Energy efficiency 4

  6. Energy sector shift to the developing countries Global energy consumption, btoe CO2 emission, billion tonnes Fact OECD Reference scenario, OECD Stagnation scenario, OECD Innovative scenario, OECD Fact non-OECD Reference scenario, non-OECD Stagnation scenario, non-OECD Innovative scenario, non-OECD 5

  7. Radical car fleet changes are possible • Gybrids & electric vehicles – up to 80% of car fleet in 2050 Oil consumption, mln tonnes Key trends in oil industry Reference scenario Stagnation scenario Innovative scenario Motor vehicle Electricity & heating Others Other transport Chemicals 6

  8. Oil prices: wave dynamics by neural modeling • Downwards trend • From commodity market to service & technology market • Volatility reduction • The end of oil business Долл. 2009 г. за баррель Fact Reference scenario Stagnation scenario Innovative scenario 7

  9. Inevitable trends: • Shift to the developing countries • The share of unconventional gas rises • The share of LNG rises Gas consumption, bcm Key trends in gas industry Reference scenario Stagnation scenario Innovative scenario EU China US India Other OECD Russia Other non-OECD 8

  10. Globalization VS regionalization International trade in oil consumption, % International trade in gas consumption, % Reference scenario Stagnation scenario Innovative scenario Reference scenario Stagnation scenario Innovative scenario 9

  11. Faster growth • Fuel competition • Renewables and new energy sources • Large potential market - electric vehicles • Innovation scenario - "Electric World" Electricity consumption, bln mWh Key trends in electricity sector Reference scenario Stagnation scenario Innovative scenario EU China US India Other OECD Russia Other non-OECD 10

  12. Renewables capacity additions, GW bln mWh Renewable electricity consumption Key trends in renewables: maximum uncertainty and growth 2050 Reference scenario Stagnation scenario Innovative scenario Fact Reference scenario Stagnation scenario Innovative scenario Other OECD Russia EU China US India 11 Other non-OECD Renewables, %

  13. Energy consumption by source, 2010 = 100% Динамика потребления энергии, млрд т н.э. Reference scenario - carbon-intensive Geopolitics + consumption growth + technological inertia Oil Coal Biomass Renewables Gas Nuclear Hydro Oil Coal Renewables (right axis) Gas Nuclear 12

  14. Energy consumption by source, 2010 = 100% Динамика потребления энергии, млрд т н.э. Stagnation scenario - renewable Energy savings + climate policy+ renewables Gas Nuclear Oil Coal Biomass Renewables Oil Coal Renewables (right axis) Gas Nuclear Hydro 14

  15. Innovative scenario –renewables & nuclear Energy efficiency + smart energy sector+ market of technologies Динамика потребления энергии, млрд т н.э. Energy consumption by source, 2010 = 100% Gas Nuclear Oil Coal Biomass Renewables Gas Nuclear Hydro Oil Coal Renewables (right axis) 13

  16. Thank you for your attention! Institute of Energy strategy www.emergystrategy.ru Tel. (495) 698-52-34 Е-mail: ies2@umaiI.ru

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