Climate Change: In the Moment

1. Climate Change: In the Moment Richard B. Rood Cell: 301-526-8572 2525 Space Research Building (North Campus) rbrood@umich.edu http://aoss.engin.umich.edu/people/rbrood November 4, 2010 @ Sierra Club, Southfield, MI

2. Some Basic References • Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change • IPCC (2007) Working Group 1: Summary for Policy Makers • Spencer Weart: The Discovery of Global Warming • Paul Edwards: A Vast Machine • Rood • Rood Climate Change Class • Reference list from course • Rood Blog Data Base Naomi Oreskes, Why Global Warming Scientists are Not Wrong

3. Outline • Basic Material • Some Science-based Background • Mitigation and Adaptation • Thinking About Pakistan • A Case Study of a Climate Disaster • (Note I did not say Climate Change – not just hedging my bets) • Moving Forward • Role of Environmental Organizations?

4. Some history (see Weart, AIP) • The first calculations of the ability of water vapor and carbon dioxide to warm the Earth’s surface are often attributed to Fourier. (I will call this the greenhouse effect.) • Significant improvements to the quantification of the warming due to greenhouse gases is attributed to Tyndall. • Arrhenius in the late 1800s made estimates of the impact of doubled carbon dioxide.

5. Starting point: Scientific foundation (1) • The scientific foundation of our understanding of the Earth’s climate is based on fundamental principles of the conservation of energy, momentum, and mass. • The scientific foundation of our understanding of the Earth’s climate is based on an enormous and diverse number of observations.

6. Starting point: A fundamental conclusion • Based on the scientific foundation of our understanding of the Earth’s climate, we observe that with virtual certainty • The average global temperature of the Earth’s surface has increased due to the human-caused addition of gases into the atmosphere that hold heat close to the surface.

7. Starting point: A fundamental conclusion • Based on the scientific foundation of our understanding of the Earth’s climate, we predict with virtual certainty • The average global temperature of the Earth’s surface will continue to rise because of the continued increase of human-caused addition into the atmosphere of gases that hold heat close to the surface. • Historically stable masses of ice on land will melt. • Sea level will rise. • The weather will change.

8. Can we talk? • What is it about climate change or climate change politics that interests or concerns you? • If something was to motivate you or mobilize the U.S. to take national-scale action, what do you think it would be?

9. Increase of Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide (CO2) (Keeling et al., 1996) “This generation has altered the composition of the atmosphere on a global scale through…a steady increase in carbon dioxide from the burning of fossil fuels.” --Lyndon Johnson Special Message to Congress, 1965 Prior to the industrial revolution CO2 ~ 280 ppm and during the ice ages ~ 180 ppm. Data and more information

10. IPCC: The last ~100 years

11. IPCC projections for the next 100 years.

12. Correlated behavior of different parameters Fig. 2.5. (State of Climate 2009) Time series from a range of indicators that would be expected to correlate strongly with the surface record. Note that stratospheric cooling is an expected consequence of greenhouse gas increases. A version of this figure with full references is available at www.ncdc.noaa.gov/bams-state-of-climate/.

13. Length of Growing Season From Ranga B. Myneni, Boston University

14. Science, Mitigation, Adaptation Framework Adaptation is responding to changes that might occur from added CO2 It’s not an either / or argument. Mitigation is controlling the amount of CO2 we put in the atmosphere.

15. Outline • Basic Material • Some Science-based Background • Mitigation and Adaptation • Thinking About Pakistan • A Case Study of a Climate Disaster • (Note I did not say Climate Change – not just hedging my bets) • Moving Forward • Some Challenges for Environmental Organizations?

16. Climate Change Relationships • Consumption // Population // Energy ENERGY CLIMATE CHANGE POPULATION CONSUMPTION SOCIETAL SUCCESS

17. Climate Change Relationships • Consumption // Population // Energy ENERGY CLIMATE CHANGE POPULATION SOCIETAL SUCCESS CONSUMPTION

18. What defines South Asia’s climate? • First the geography and how it affects climate • And, ultimately, climate change

19. Important attributes of geography Middle Latitudes Large Land Mass Steep Mountains Tropics Large, Warm Source of Water NOAA/NGDC: This and many other maps

20. Monsoonal Flow Dry Season / Winter Wet Season / Summer

21. Tropical ocean important to onset of monsoon rains We do not model tropical structure and variability very well, especially in the Indian Ocean. Hence, our knowledge about changes in monsoon onset have high uncertainty. How tropical convection “organizes” El Nino Madden-Julian Oscillation La Nina

22. India / South Asia • South Asia temperature will likely be above the global average (3.3 C versus 2.5 C) • Largest change in December, January, February • Increase in number of VERY hot days • Increase in night time temperature • Increases larger towards north and in the interior • South Asia will very likely have fewer cold days. • Extreme precipitation and winds associated with tropical storms will likely increase. • Monsoonal flows will likely decrease in strength.

23. Precipitation • Precipitation increases in wet season / summer. • Precipitation decreases in dry season / winter. • Monsoonal precipitation will likely increase. Why? • increased moisture in the warmer atmosphere • Surface hydrology • Available water? • Warmer temperatures will dry. Often evaporation overwhelms increase in precipitation.

24. IPCC: Asia Climate Change Predictions Figure 11.9: IPCC Working Group 1 TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION # of MODELS ANNUAL WINTER SUMMER

25. Climatology DRYING DESERTFICATION? 2100 ARID 2100 SEMI-ARID TROPICAL WET & DRY MOIST SUBTROPICAL TROPICAL WET

26. Water stored in snow and ice Snowpack and ice receding, lasting shorter amount of time. Disappearing?

27. Rivers • Sea level rise will lead to increased coastal inundation • Amplified by stronger tropical cyclones • Large impact in river deltas • Salt water intrusion • Snow and ice melt • Excess spring flow, flood • Rivers become seasonal

28. Pakistan / Indian Monsoonal Rain 2010 • I argue that this particular event is more like a climate disaster than a weather disaster because of geographical and temporal scale of the event, and it’s relation to underlying geography and physical processes. • A major flood, but probably NOT outside the realm of previous observations. • Hard and perhaps not wise to say that a particular event is related to climate change. • High variability, hence it is the correlation of several events, the accumulation of many events that confirm climate change.

29. Pakistan / Indian Monsoonal Rain 2010 • Pakistan has high population and high vulnerability, low resilience. • Agriculture • Public Health • Infrastructure • Water quality • Political Stability • National Security

30. Outline • Basic Material • Some Science-based Background • Mitigation and Adaptation • Thinking About Pakistan • A Case Study of a Climate Disaster • (Note I did not say Climate Change – not just hedging my bets) • Moving Forward • Some Challenges for Environmental Organizations?

31. Projections for the next 100 years. • Intergovernmental Panel on Climate ChangeFourth Assessment Report

32. Past Emissions Princeton Carbon Mitigation Initiative

33. The Stabilization Triangle Princeton Carbon Mitigation Initiative

34. The Wedge Concept Princeton Carbon Mitigation Initiative

35. Stabilization Princeton Carbon Mitigation Initiative

36. Princeton Carbon Mitigation Initiative

37. McKinsey 2007

38. Climate Change Relationships • Consumption // Population // Energy ENERGY CLIMATE CHANGE POPULATION SOCIETAL SUCCESS CONSUMPTION What is societal success?

39. Some important issues. • Our imperative for economic growth requires the use of energy, which requires, presently, burning fossil fuels. • Requirement for technological development and alternative sources of energy. • Not likely that we will act to reduce, substantially, our emissions in the next ?? years. • If we are to control CO2, we must develop technology to remove CO2 from the atmosphere or to keep it from getting there. • We must adapt to global warming.

40. Some important issues. • There is no single solution, no simple policy solution, no consensus approach, no easy way out, no clean way out. • What are our energy choices? • How do energy arguments impact ability to address climate change? • How do policy arguments impact climate change? • How do conservation interests impact climate change? • What about developmental efforts? • Environmental ethics? • U.S. role in the world?

41. There are things we can do • In the short-term more efficient use of energy is our best way to reduce emissions. • This buys us time. • There are air quality decisions that we can make which will help to manage warming, and air quality decisions that will accelerate warming. • Strategies for scaling up the activities of individuals • Cities

42. Take away messages • We have a unique opportunity: • We have credible information about what the climate will look like for the next century. • Are we smart enough to use this information? • To address these problems will require us to manage the waste that we put into the atmosphere (and ocean and soil and water). • Technology development for alternative sources of energy is needed. • Technology development for removing carbon dioxide from the atmosphere is needed.

43. Some Basic References • Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change • IPCC (2007) Working Group 1: Summary for Policy Makers • Spencer Weart: The Discovery of Global Warming • Paul Edwards: A Vast Machine • Rood • Rood Climate Change Class • Reference list from course • Rood Blog Data Base