Ecological Impacts & Adaptive Strategies

1. Ecological Impacts& Adaptive Strategies

2. Ecosystems Defined • “Ecosystems are communities of plants, animals, microbes, and the physical environment in which they exist […and describes] plantation forests and agricultural systems” as well NAST (2000), Our Changing Climate, p. 24

3. Ecosystems Defined • “Humans are not apart from the Earth – they are a part of the Earth.” • Tony’s personal philosophy

4. Ecosystem Impacts, Generally • Greatest impacts are to Arctic and alpine ecosystems, ecosystems with high levels of endemic species, island ecosystems, wetlands and mangrove forests (especially those bounded by human settlements) and South African ecosystems – in other words, systems where the species have nowhere left to go

5. Ecosystem Impacts, Generally NAST (2000), Our Changing Climate, p. 25

6. Tropical Rainforest Source: http://www.uwsp.edu/geo/faculty/ritter/images/ biosphere/vegetation/rainforest_Congo_FAO.jpg Source: http://pas.byu.edu/pas100/peten_rainforest.jpg

7. Taiga/Boreal Forest Source: http://www.nearctica.com/biomes/boreal/ taiga1.jpg Source: http://www.nearctica.com/biomes/boreal/ taiga2.jpg

8. Tundra Biome Source: http://waynesword.palomar.edu/images/biome2b.jpg Source: http://www.marietta.edu/~biol/biomes/images/ tundra/alaskapipeline1.jpg

9. Taiga/Tundra Ecotone Source: http://fp.bio.utk.edu/botany120lect/Biomes/Biome01/ArealAlaskaTundra-Shanks.JPG

10. Ecosystem Impacts, Generally • The Golden Toad of the Cloud Forests of Costa Rica may be the first climate change casualty Warren, R. (2006) van Vliet, A., and Leemans, R. (2006) Lanchberry, J. (2006) (etc.)

11. Ecosystem Impacts, Generally • Climate change is just one significant threat • It acts in concert with other human effects • Habitat destruction (deforestation, development…) & the resulting fragmentation • Invasive species • Over-hunting / fishing • Pollution • Etc. NAST (2000), Our Changing Climate (etc.)

12. Ecosystem Impacts, Generally • Ecosystem impact predictions have generally been too conservative • Most existing models are flawed: • (1) they aggregate ecosystems into coarse units, when species respond uniquely and locally; • (2) they usually only consider mean temperature changes and ignore extreme conditions; • (3) they ignore transient response (and thus rates of change) and only indicate potential final responses van Vliet, A. and Leemans, R. (2006)

13. Ecosystem Impacts, Generally • 15-40% species extinct with 2°C warming • “Hotspots” have the most to lose • 25 hotspots cover 1% of Earth’s landmass yet account for 44% of plants and 35% of animals • 1/3 of amphibians in danger of extinction • Ecosystems can only adapt to a rate of change of +0.5°C / decade Warren, R. (2006) Stern Review (2006), p. 79 “Diversity of Species Faces 'Catastrophe’…” (2006) “Warming link to amphibian disease” (2006)

14. 80% of observed changes in species distributions can be explained by climate change There is an increased risk of wildfire: in Indonesia, 810,000 Ha burned in the past decade, including 100,000 Ha of Orangutan habitat Ecosystem Impacts, Generally van Vliet, A. and Leemans, R. (2006) http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Orangutan 1 Ha = 2.47 ac

15. Ecosystem Impacts, Generally • Observed changes: According to two meta-studies looking at hundreds of other studies looking at up to 1,700 species, “87% of shifts in phenology and 81% of range shifts were in the direction expected from climate change”, “i.e., towards higher latitudes or altitudes, or earlier spring events” Lanchberry, J. (2006), p. 144

16. Ecosystem Impacts, Generally • Phenology “deals with the times of annual recurring natural events like flowering, leaf unfolding, fruit ripening, leaf coloring and fall, migration, and spawning” – and these patterns are changing [p. 136] • In the northern hemisphere, spring is coming up to 10 days sooner and fall ending a few days later • Timing mismatches are occurring: for example some birds are laying eggs sooner but not as soon as their primary food source, leading to increased infant mortality • Species have been migrating – on average – 6km poleward per decade over the last 40 years van Vliet, A. and Leemans, R. (2006)

17. Ecosystem Impacts, Generally • Most importantly: ecosystems are affected by extremes much more than they are by averages. • “observed responses to observed changes in weather patterns [...] seem to be directly caused by extreme events, such as high temperatures early in the season, warmer and wetter winters and dry summers.” [p. 138] van Vliet, A. and Leemans, R. (2006)

18. Ecosystem Impacts, Generally • At +1°C, 10% of global ecosystems transformed, losing between 2-47% of extent • At +2°C, 16% of global ecosystems transformed, losing between 5-66% of extent • At +2-5°C, 50% probability of THC collapse • At +3°C, 50% of nature reserves cannot fulfill their conservation objectives • At +3°C, 22% of global ecosystems transformed, losing between 7-74% extent • At +4°C, THC collapses Warren, R. (2006)

19. Climate, General Trends • The atmosphere has warmed by 0.76°C since pre-industrial times • Warming has increased by an average rate of 0.13°C / decade for the past 50 years • Warming can be expected to increase by 0.2°C / decade over next two decades IPCC AR4 (2007)

20. Climate, General Trends dT in °C from pre-industrial 2020s-2080s: Warren, R. (2006), p. 93 2090s: IPCC AR4 (2007), p. 11

21. Ecosystem Effects, Generally • Mangroves in Asia could be lost at +2.4-2.8°C, as they cannot survive SLR of 45cm (SRES Scenarios A1T, A1B, and B2) National Geographic (Feb. 2007) Warren, R. (2006), pp. 95-97 IPCC AR4 (2007)

22. The Oceans: Acidifying • Typical ocean pH is 8.1, but this varies spatially • Ocean pH has dropped (acidified) by 0.1 since pre-industrial times, and is decreasing at a rate of 0.015 / decade • If atmospheric CO2 concentration reaches 700ppm, ocean pH will decrease by 0.3; if it reaches 1000ppm, 0.5 • “These geochemical changes are highly predictable” [p. 65] • CaCO3 + CO2 + H2O <--> Ca2+ + CO32- + CO2 + H2O <--> Ca2+ + 2HCO3- Turley, C. (2006)

23. The Oceans: Acidifying Turley, C. (2006), p. 66

24. The Oceans: Acidifying Turley, C. (2006), p. 67

25. The Oceans: Acidifying • Unknown effects for most marine organisms • Form of key macronutrients (phosphorus and nitrogen) changed in acidic environment -> eutrophication • Changed carbonate chemistry will affect calcifying organisms such as coccolithophores, pteropods, gastropods, foraminifera and corals • Coccolithophores play an important role in the global carbon cycle • Form blooms 100,000s km2 • Are a “major producer of dimethyl sulphide (DMS) which may have a role in climate regulation via the production of cloud condensation nuclei” [p. 67] Turley, C. (2006)

26. Coccolithophore Malformations Figs a-c: Under normal atmospheric CO2 concentration (~300 ppmv) Figs d-e: Under enriched atmospheric CO2 (780-850 ppmv) Source: http://www.noc.soton.ac.uk/soes/staff/tt/eh/pics/ulf.jpg

27. Pteropods Source:http://www.amonline.net.au/exhibitions/beyond/images Pteropods are tiny, free-swimming marine snails which have developed two wing-like flaps in place of the large muscular foot of most snails.

28. Gastropods Source: http://www.dnr.sc.gov/marine/sertc/images/ photo%20gallery/

29. Foraminifera Source: http://www.ucmp.berkeley.edu/foram/foramshapessm.jpg Foraminifera are a large group of amoeboid protists with fine strands of cytoplasm that branch and merge to form a dynamic net. They typically produce a shell, or test, which can have either one or multiple chambers, some becoming quite elaborate in structure.

30. “Rainforests of the oceans”, providing homes for 25-33% of all marine life “Coral calcification rates may decrease by 21-40% over the period 1880-2065 in response to atmospheric CO2 changes” [p. 68] Recently discovered cold water reefs may be even more sensitive than their tropical cousins The Great Barrier Reef has existed for 18 million years and may die in our lifetime The Oceans: Coral Reefs http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Barrier_Reef Turley, C. (2006) “Climate Change Shattering Marine Food Chain” (2006)

31. At +1°C, 80% of coral reefs will die At +1.4°C, Indian Ocean reefs cannot survive At +2°C, 97% of reefs will have died, with annual bleaching occurring at +2.3°C The importance of extremes: 16% of reefs died in 1998 when temperatures peaked at 1-3°C above mean maximum 20% of reefs have been lost due to climate change, pollution, and bottom-dredging Coral bleaching is a vivid sign of corals responding to stress, primarily increased water temperatures. Once bleaching begins, corals tend to continue to bleach even if the stressor is removed. If the coral colony survives, it often requires weeks to months for the remaining symbiont population to reach a normal density Sometimes, but not always, a fatal event The Oceans: Coral Reefs Warren, R. (2006) Hare, B. (2006) “Climate Change Shattering Marine Food Chain” (2006) http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coral_bleaching

32. The Oceans: Coral Reefs Bleaching, disease, and spawning events ReefBase GIS

33. IPCC AR4 (2007), p. 18

34. The Arctic • “In the Arctic even a slight shift in temperature, raising averages to above freezing, can bring about rapid and dramatic changes in an ecosystem that is defined by being frozen” [p. 215] • “The effect of a 2°C global warming suggests […] greater changes in terrestrial arctic ecosystems during the 21st century than have occurred since the end of the last major glacial epoch” [p. 216] • Extinction of polar bear, seal, walrus, and the Inuit culture • Rates of change in local temperature are 0.45-0.75°C / decade, possibly as high as 1.55°C / decade • Changes in the Artic affect the planetary system, as Arctic ice reflects a great deal of sunlight Folkestad, T. (2006)

35. The Arctic • At +1°C, only 53% of tundra remains stable • At +1.5°C, onset of melting in Greenland, leading to +0.75m SLR by 2100 • At +2°C, 42% of tundra remains stable • “Arctic tundra is the main breeding habitat for more than 20 million individual geese and waders that over-winter in the mid-latitudes of Europe, Asia, and North America.” [p. 217] • Some species of birds may lose up to 50% of their breeding habitat at +2°C Warren, R. (2006) Folkestad, T. (2006)

36. The Arctic: Taiga and Tundra Folkestad, T. (2006), p. 217

37. The Arctic: Taiga • At +4°C, we can expect a 44% loss of the taiga and a 60% loss of the tundra Warren, R. (2006) http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Taiga

38. Over the past 25 years, some penguin populations have shrunk by 33 percent in parts of Antarctica, due to declines in winter sea-ice habitat At +2°C, key molluscs will die out, leading to severe ecosystem disruption At +4°C, we can expect an 80% decline in krill, severely affecting penguins At +2-4.5°C, potential triggering of WAIS collapse, leading to +0.75m SLR by 2100 Antarctica http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Penguin

39. Africa • At +1°C, significant loss of Karoo (S.A.), the richest floral area in the world • At +2.5°C, 100% loss of Karoo and its 2,800 endemic plants • Loss of the Fynbos, along with 80% of the plants of the Cape Floral Kingdom (S.A.), the smallest and most biodiverse floral kingdom in the world • African Great Lakes wetland ecosystems collapse • At +2-3°C, 5 S.A. parks lose >40% of their animals • At +3°C, Kruger National Park (S.A.) loses 2/3 of its species Warren, R. (2006) Hare, B. (2006) “Libya’s Thirst” (2006)

40. Africa: Karoo & Fynbos King Protea, National Flower of S.A. http://www.tropical-island.de/CPT%20Little%20Karoo%20Oudtshoorn%20Cango%20Wildlife%20Ranch%20Cheetahland%20lion%20b.jpg http://www.wildlifesafari.info/images/fynbos_habitat.jpg

41. Americas • The Mountain Pine Beetle has expanded to regions of Canada in British Columbia where previously it was “climatically unsuitable” (killing 2m Ha of ponderosa) • In the US, the milder winters are allowing Pine Beetle populations to double yearly (for the past 6 years), such that it is devastating pine forest in the western and northwestern states 1 Ha = 2.47 ac van Vliet, A. and Leemans, R. (2006), p. 137

42. Americas • At +1°C, glacier melt in Peru will cause “significant problems” [pp. 95-97] • At +2°C, potential environmental refugees from Peru [pop: 28m] as glaciers melt • Impacts on salmonid fish • At +2-3°C, maples threatened in N. America • Conversion of Amazon rainforest into savannah, “a potentially significant […] change” [Halpin, p. 832] Warren, R. (2006) Halpin, P.N. (1997)

43. Americas: USA NAST (2000), Our Changing Climate, p. 28

44. Americas: USA • Note that these figures indicate where ecosystems would exist given the expected climate of the region, not where they will exist NAST (2000), Our Changing Climate, p. 29

45. At +2°C, 50% loss of Chinese boreal forests 50% loss of Sundarbans (wetlands and mangrove forest) in Bangladesh At +2.5°C, 100% loss of Chinese boreal forests Mangroves might disappear Desertification and loss of permafrost on Tibetan plateau Asia There are approximately 700 Bengal Tigers in the Sundarbans http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sundarbans Warren, R. (2007)

46. Australia • At +1°C, extinctions in Dryandra forest • 50% loss of Queensland rainforest • At +2°C, 50% loss of Kakadu wetland in Australia • At +2.5°C, total loss of Kakadu • At +3°C, 50% loss of eucalyptus • 80% loss of range of endemic butterfly Warren, R. (2006)

47. Australia: Kakadu & Butterflies http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kakadu http://www.mark-ju.net/wildlife/thumbs/australia/butterfly01.jpg

48. Already losses of alpine flora “Seabirds on the North Sea coast of Britain suffered a large-scale breeding failure in 2004”, due to a shortage of sandeels, which fed on phytoplankton which shifted poleward thanks to a +1.05°C temp shift between 1977 & 2001 [Lanchbery, p. 145] At +3°C, alpine species near extinction 60% species loss in Mediterranean, as well as high risk of fire and loss of migratory bird habitat At +4°C, 38% of alpine species lose 90% of range Europe North Sea http://www.ikzm-d.de/abbildungen/53_NorthSeaMap.jpg Lanchbery, J. (2006) Warren, R. (2006)

49. Burning Embers: A New Target van Vliet, A. and Leemans, R. (2006)

50. Adaptations • Adaptive ability depends on: • (1) rate of climate change; • (2) migratory potential of species; • (3) competitive pressure between species; • (4) physical (human) obstacles in the way • The following are techniques that are considered to help: • (1) connective corridors; • (2) stepping-stone nature preserves; • (3) protected-area buffer zones; • (4) management planning at the regional ecosystem level. • But Halpin notes that there has been little good research on ecosystem adaptations, on which landscape elements should be protected and why Halpin, P.N. (1997)