1 / 30

2005 Outlook for U.S. Construction

2005 Outlook for U.S. Construction. December 16, 2004 Cliff Brewis Senior Director Editorial McGraw-Hill Construction. U.S. Macroeconomic Picture. The economy is working through the mid-2004 “soft patch”. Issues Impacting Recovery. Pattern of Economic Expansion – Annual GDP

ira
Download Presentation

2005 Outlook for U.S. Construction

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. 2005 Outlook forU.S. Construction December 16, 2004 Cliff BrewisSenior Director Editorial McGraw-Hill Construction

  2. U.S. Macroeconomic Picture The economy is working through the mid-2004 “soft patch”

  3. Issues Impacting Recovery • Pattern of Economic Expansion – Annual GDP 20012002200320042005 +0.8% +1.9% +3.0% +4.3% +3.5% • Jobless Recovery • Productivity • Off Shore Employment • Oil/Health Care • Cost of Money • Deficit • Inflation • International • Iraq/Middle East • China/India • Increasing Costs of Material • Tied to China/India • Impacts different Building Sectors

  4. U.S. Construction Market Indicators

  5. Ohio

  6. Major U.S. Construction Sectors By major sector, the construction start pattern has diverged.

  7. U.S. Single Family Housing Construction continues to be robust ... Single Family Housing Starts 2002 1.304 million units+7% 2003 1.417 million units +9% 2004 1.530 million units +8% 2005 1.425 million units -7%

  8. U.S. Single Family Housing

  9. Gr. Cincinnati: Single Family

  10. U.S. Income Properties -- Stores Store Construction 2002 257msf - 8% 2003 283 msf +10% 2004 290 msf +3% 2005 300 msf +3% (msf = million of sq. ft.)

  11. Gr. Cincinnati: Retail

  12. U.S. Income Properties -- Offices Office Construction 2002 157 msf -30% 2003 144 msf -9% 2004 155 msf +8% 2005 170 msf +10%

  13. U.S. Income Properties -- Offices

  14. U.S. Income Properties -- Offices Year 2004 (Jan. - Sept.) Top 10 Metro Areas for Office Building Office Building Factors Ranked by square feet of new office starts 1. Wash. DC +16% 6. Chicago -19% 2. New York +181% 7. Baltimore +36% 3. Atlanta +53% 8. Tampa +24% 4. Phoenix -6% 9. Las Vegas +140% 5. Dallas +21% 10. San Diego +123% Tech-Related Markets: 11. Seattle +113% 25. Boston +19% 66. Austin -40% 72. San Jose -37% 160. San Francisco -92%

  15. Gr. Cincinnati: Offices

  16. U.S. Income Properties --Multifamily Housing Multifamily Housing 2002 402,000 units -3% 2003 444,000 units +10% 2004 435,000 units -2% 2005 445,000 units +2%

  17. Gr. Cincinnati: Multi-Family

  18. U.S. Institutional Buildings School construction still strong, but slipping. Educational Buildings 2002 254 msf -7% 2003241 msf -5% 2004 217 msf -10% 2005 223 msf +3%

  19. U.S. Institutional Buildings

  20. WA 5.5 ME MT ND -1.0 6.0 -1.9 MN OR VT NH ID .1 5.3 -2.0 MA .0 13.6 WI NY SD -2.6 .1 MI -3.8 4.0 WY -1.2 RI 14.9 CT PA IA -.6 NE -3.0 -3.0 -1.4 NV OH 3.2 NJ UT IN IL 7.7 -2.6 .7 DE WV 12.3 CA .4 .8 CO .9 MD -4.7 VA 13.2 7.6 KS MO .8 KY 2.1 DC 3.0 .7 -3.0 4.3 NC TN -1.4 OK 1.7 AZ AR SC NM .8 9.7 -1.8 .7 13.6 GA AL MS 5.3 -1.0 -2.0 TX LA 10.4 1.0 HI FL 13.8 4.0 AK 14.6 Increase 10% to 15% Increase 5% to 10% Increase 0% to 5% Decrease U.S. Institutional Buildings Change in K-12 Student Enrollments, 2003 - 2013 By State, Source: National Center for Education Statistics

  21. Gr. Cincinnati: Education

  22. U.S. Institutional Buildings Healthcare facilities settling back from a robust 2002. Healthcare Facilities 2002 97 msf +6% 2003 91 msf -6% 2004 86 msf -6% 2005 88 msf +2%

  23. Gr. Cincinnati: Medical

  24. U.S. Public Works Highways and bridges now settling back ... Highways, Bridges 2002 $43.5 billion +1% 2003 $42.5 billion -2% 2004 $40.6 billion -5% 2005 $42.5 billion+5%

  25. OH: Highways

  26. U.S. Total Construction for 2004/2005 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005_ Total Construction 496.6 503.5 529.8 576.6 585.4 +5% +1% +5% +9%+2% Single Family Housing 186.9 214.2 242.3 276.6 267.6 +6% +15% +13% +14% -3% Income Properties 103.1 94.0 99.5 110.0 119.5 -8% -9% +6% +11%+9% Institutional Bldgs. 90.8 90.0 89.9 91.2 97.4 +9% -1% -0- +1%+7% Manufacturing Bldgs. 8.1 5.4 6.4 7.0 8.0 -8% -33% +19% +9% +15% Public Works 83.6 87.9 82.8 85.9 87.4 +7% +5% -6% +4% +2% Billions of Dollars

  27. Ohio

  28. 1 8 0 1 6 0 1975 - 1982 1991 - 2005 1 4 0 1 2 0 1982 - 1991 1 0 0 8 0 T T + 2 T + 4 T + 6 T + 8 T + 1 0 T + 1 2 T + 1 4 Y e a r s f r o m C y c l i c a l T r o u g h Points of Perspective – U.S. Construction Total Construction by Cycle Cyclical Trough (T) = 100, Based on Constant Dollars

  29. Questions? Cliff Brewis Senior Director Editorial McGraw-Hill Construction 130 Doolittle Dr Ste 1 San Leandro, CA 94577 510.383.1106 x14 cliff_brewis@mcgraw-hill.com

  30. Colorado

More Related