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Causes of Haze Assessment Update for Fire Emissions Joint Forum -12/9/04 Meeting

Causes of Haze Assessment Update for Fire Emissions Joint Forum -12/9/04 Meeting. Marc Pitchford. Causes of Haze Assessment (COHA). Overview

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Causes of Haze Assessment Update for Fire Emissions Joint Forum -12/9/04 Meeting

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  1. Causes of Haze Assessment Update for Fire Emissions Joint Forum -12/9/04 Meeting Marc Pitchford

  2. Causes of Haze Assessment (COHA) • Overview • Starting the third year of a 4-year contract effort to use ambient monitoring data & some emissions information to assess haze influential factors (e.g. aerosol species, atmospheric processes, source types & regions) • Assessment information & products are stored & distributed on the COHA web site (no paper report)http://www.coha.dri.edu/ • Primary uses of the COHA products are to support the technical assessments for SIPs & TIPs, and specifically the Attribution of Haze Workgroup effort

  3. COHA Tasks • Completed for each Class I Area • Emissions mapping & Descriptions (maps of NOx, SO2 & fire within 20km) • Monitoring Site Setting Descriptions (maps of terrain, land-use, air quality & met. monitoring sites, urban & industrial locations) • Meteorological Site Setting Descriptions (local flow patterns, site representativeness, climate data, etc.) • Aerosol Descriptions (figures, tables, & text of typical, best & worst aerosol components, monthly distribution & composition of worst days) • Back Trajectory Analysis (3 years of 8 per day 8-day back trajectories at 3 starting heights [>3 million trajectories], summary maps of all days, best & worst haze days, best & worst for each component days, etc [>5000 summary maps]) • Trajectory Regression Analysis (statistical relationship between transport time over source regions & air quality measured at the monitoring site, sufficient data at about 80 sites, used by the AOH workgroup to compare to WRAP modeling attribution results

  4. Bandelier Wilderness Area : Nearby Emissions

  5. US Fire Database US National fire database 1970 to 2002 reported by USFS, BLM, BIA, NPS, FWS • Key Data Fields: • Lat/long • Fire start date (date discovered & controlled on USFS land only) • Area • Cause • QA flags (DRI)

  6. Canadian Fire Database Canadian Large Fire Database 1959 to1999 Large forest fires in Canada, 1959–1997, Stocks et al., 2003 J.G.R. • Key Data Fields: • Lat/long • Province • Region • Fire start date • Size • Cause

  7. MODIS Fire Database 2001 to present from Forest Service, Remote Sensing Application Center http://activefiremaps.fs.fed.us/ The fire detections are discerned using the 1-km thermal bands of MODIS. Detections are provided as the centroids of the 1-km pixels • Key Data Fields: • Lat/long • Fire start date • Brightness temp • Pixels 2002 fires shown here

  8. NOAA NESDID Satellite Services Division Fire Database • 2003 to present • Detections from GOES, AVHRR, DMSP/OLS and MODIS • Archived visible smoke plume polygons • Key Data Fields: • Lat/long • Time http://www.firedetect.noaa.gov

  9. Alaska Fire Database • Alaska Forest Service • Large wildland fires from 1950 to 2003 • Provides only year not day • Key Data Fields: • Lat/long • Year • Area, perimeter • Fire ID http://agdc.usgs.gov/data/blm/fire/index.html

  10. Example Trajectory Summary Maps • Bandelier National Park – residence time maps show fraction of transport hours spent over each 1o by 1o cell. • Top map shows the residence time for the worst 20% haze days • Bottom map shows the residence time for the best 20% haze days

  11. Trajectory Regression Results • Bar graphs of concentration & percent contributions associated with 15 to 20 source regions • Source regions are based on state borders • Includes statistical uncertainty bars & tabular regression analysis output (not shown) • Currently applied to sulfate and aerosol extinction data

  12. COHA Tasks • To be completed • Episode analysis (custom assessment of causes of worst haze periods using supplemental information, examples: forest fires, regional & global dust, eastern sulfate transported west, west coast nitrates, etc) ~10 episodes completed to date • Receptor modeling (more transport regression, CMB, etc.) • Update previous work with additional data

  13. Additional COHA Activities • Tribal Causes of Haze (conduct COHA for tribal Class I Areas, assess regional haze monitoring needs for tribal lands) • Dust Causes of Haze (develop methods to characterize dust by source type/geographic scale, apply method to several years of data)

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