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Modeling risks in the future Failure prevention. Dr. Gerard Gaal Senior Reliability Consultant. Agenda. Introduction The risk definition Risk Identification Required data / information Risk Prevention. The Risk Definition. Probability of Failure (Events per Year) Asset type
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Modeling risks in the futureFailure prevention Dr. Gerard Gaal Senior Reliability Consultant
Agenda • Introduction • The risk definition • Risk Identification • Required data / information • Risk Prevention
The Risk Definition • Probability of Failure • (Events per Year) • Asset type • Manufacturer asset • Condition of the asset • Uncertainty in the asset condition Consequence of Failure (Impact ($) per Event) • Loss of function • Environmental impact • Reputation impact • Costs emergency maintenance X
Risk Identification • Risk Matrix • Client data • Data Analysis • Task Plan
Risk Identification • Databases - failure rate • Constant failure rate • Overestimate PoF
Required information / data • Equipment data • P&IDs of the system; • Equipment ID data (age, usage etc.) and tagging (or taken from P&ID); • Failure data • Historical maintenance data from the system (replaced components); • Maintenance data • Maintenance plans for the system (cleaned, preventatively replace components); • Equipment condition data.
