The Nexus between Parliaments, Poverty and Conflict Prevention

1. The Nexus between Parliaments, Poverty and Conflict Prevention Mitchell O’Brien Governance Specialist Team Lead – Parliament Program World Bank Institute mobrien@worldbank.org

2. Outline WBI/ CPA Knowledge Capture Process Outcomes of research – the Nexus between Parliaments, Poverty and Conflict Prevention Delegations sharing points of friction/ issues of discord

3. WBI/CPA Knowledge Capture Process • Stud y Group on the Role of Parliaments in Conflict-Affected Countries – Sri Lanka 2004 • Conference on Parliaments and Conflict - Wilton Park 2005 • Parliaments as Peacebuilders in Conflict-Affected Countries – 2008 • Conference on Conflict Prevention - Royal Rhodes 2008/9 • Workshop on the Role of the Parliaments in Conflict-Affected Countries – Vienna 2010

4. Trends in Conflict • Transformation in the nature of conflict - Type and rate of conflict changing • Traditional inter-state (Kashmir) and ethno-national conflicts (Sri Lanka) are becoming rarer • Nontraditional intrastate conflicts continue to wage with potential for spillover into neighbouring countries (Afghanistan/ Pakistan) • Recent trends show a diffusion and fragmentation of violence perpetuated by a number of actors (what constitutes the security sector?) targeting non combatants and citizens (West Africa/ Kenya?/ Uganda?) • This makes it difficult for the international community to intervene and places greater emphasis on national institutions t o act

5. Structural Conditions Conducive to Conflict • There is a correlative relationship between poverty and conflict • Nations with a high levels of dependence on commodity exports are at a higher risk of experiencing conflict • Meanwhile countries with higher levels of secondary schooling and economic growth have reduced rates of conflict

6. How do the figures add up? • Low-income countries with a per-capita income of less than US$2,000 experienced conflict approximately one in every five years • The figure drops to one in every eight years once income increases to between US$2,000 - $4,000 • Drops to one in every 33 years when per capita income is in excess of US$4,000 • This is a correlative relationship rather than causal

7. Conflict Trap • A country with these conditions is statistically more prone to conflict than a country without these structural conditions • The impact on economy lingers beyond well beyond the cessation of conflict, making a country more prone to a reversion to conflict – this is known as the conflict trap

8. Democracy and Conflict • Democracies generally operate under constraints that make them more peaceful in their relations with other democracies and rarely, if ever, go to war against one another • Does not mean that they do not go to war against non-democratic states (US-Iraq war) • Studies show that irrespective of political systems that have waged wars, only 18 percent of wars between 1816 and 1990 have been instigated by democracies • Therefore, as its rarer for democracies to wage war and instigate wars we should be promoting democratic institutions such as parliaments • Countries in transition a more conflict prone, though, so special assistance should be provided

9. Democracy and Development • Hard to find a causal relationship • Studies now compare economic performance between autocracies and low-income democracies – no discernable difference in per capita growth (distorting effect of the Asian Tigers) • However, if you look at development in terms of human development rather than economic development there is a marked difference • People in democratic nations consistently over the last four decades, lived longer, healthier, and more productive lives. • Second schooling enrollment nearly twice as high (factor in reducing conflict), higher agricultural yields, and childhood mortality rates are almost half • Interestingly, while low-income democracies outperform autocracies on social indicators, expenditure in this area is relatively equal • This resulted in the Abuja Declaration (CHOGM 2003) confirming the link between democracy and development

10. Parliaments as the Cornerstone • Understanding the correlative relationship between poverty and conflict and democracy and development highlights the need for strong democratic institutions such as parliaments • Parliaments are the most representative democratic institutions • Parliaments can seek to prevent conflict by addressing the root causes of conflict and addressing the structural conditions (poverty) that permit underlying tensions to escalate to violent conflict