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An Italian tool for convection : NEFODINA

An Italian tool for convection : NEFODINA. Session 4 of Convection Week 2011, 6-9 June 2011. Cap. Davide MELFI Italian Air Force Meteorological Service CNMCA. OUTLINE. The model: NEFODINA. Features - Case studies. Summary and Outlook. An Italian tool for convection: NEFODINA.

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An Italian tool for convection : NEFODINA

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  1. An Italiantoolforconvection: NEFODINA Session 4 of ConvectionWeek 2011, 6-9 June 2011 Cap. Davide MELFI Italian Air ForceMeteorological Service CNMCA

  2. OUTLINE • The model: NEFODINA • Features - Case studies • Summary and Outlook An Italian tool for convection: NEFODINA

  3. Classification An Italian tool for convection: NEFODINA

  4. Software scheme 10.8 mm (IR) – time t-1 10.8 mm (IR) – time t Calibration 6.2 mm (WV1) – time t Filter application to sharpen cloud edges 7.3 mm (WV2) – time t CONVECTIVE OBJECTS (COs) DETECTION AND TRAKING MODEL NEFODINA Detection in the IR image of all possible COs using a varying threshold method STATIC ANALYSIS (Tmin, Tmed, Tmod, Area, shape, slope, etc..) DYNAMIC ANALYSIS Already detected First detection PARENTAL RELATIONSHIP COs Discrimination on the base of IR features by comparison with previous slot CROSS ANALYSIS COs Discrimination on the base of IR, WV1, WV2 features LIFE PHASE EVALUATION GRAPHIC OUTPUT ASCII OUTPUT WITH STORY OF COs An Italian tool for convection: NEFODINA

  5. Software scheme 10.8 mm (IR) – time t-1 10.8 mm (IR) – time t Calibration 6.2 mm (WV1) – time t Filter application to sharpen cloud edges 7.3 mm (WV2) – time t CONVECTIVE OBJECTS (COs) DETECTION AND TRAKING MODEL NEFODINA Detection in the IR image of all possible COs using a varying threshold method STATIC ANALYSIS (Tmin, Tmed, Tmod, Area, shape, slope, etc..) DYNAMIC ANALYSIS Already detected First detection PARENTAL RELATIONSHIP COs Discrimination on the base of IR features by comparison with previous slot CROSS ANALYSIS COs Discrimination on the base of IR, WV1, WV2 features LIFE PHASE EVALUATION GRAPHIC OUTPUT ASCII OUTPUT WITH STORY OF COs An Italian tool for convection: NEFODINA

  6. Detection ofCloudy Cluster VARIABLE THRESHOLD ALGORITHM 200 K° < TB < 236 K° An Italian tool for convection: NEFODINA

  7. Software scheme 10.8 mm (IR) – time t-1 10.8 mm (IR) – time t Calibration 6.2 mm (WV1) – time t Filter application to sharpen cloud edges 7.3 mm (WV2) – time t CONVECTIVE OBJECTS (COs) DETECTION AND TRAKING MODEL NEFODINA Detection in the IR image of all possible COs using a varying threshold method Slope index Ellipticity Cloud Top Area Minimum Temperature Modal Temperature Main Temperature STATIC ANALYSIS DYNAMIC ANALYSIS Already detected First detection PARENTAL RELATIONSHIP COs Discrimination on the base of IR features by comparison with previous slot CROSS ANALYSIS COs Discrimination on the base of IR, WV1, WV2 features LIFE PHASE EVALUATION GRAPHIC OUTPUT ASCII OUTPUT WITH STORY OF COs An Italian tool for convection: NEFODINA

  8. Software scheme 10.8 mm (IR) – time t-1 10.8 mm (IR) – time t Calibration 6.2 mm (WV1) – time t Filter application to sharpen cloud edges 7.3 mm (WV2) – time t CONVECTIVE OBJECTS (COs) DETECTION AND TRAKING MODEL NEFODINA Detection in the IR image of all possible COs using a varying threshold method STATIC ANALYSIS (Tmin, Tmed, Tmod, Area, shape, slope, etc..) DYNAMIC ANALYSIS Already detected First detection PARENTAL RELATIONSHIP COs Discrimination on the base of IR features by comparison with previous slot CROSS ANALYSIS COs Discrimination on the base of IR, WV1, WV2 features LIFE PHASE EVALUATION GRAPHIC OUTPUT ASCII OUTPUT WITH STORY OF COs An Italian tool for convection: NEFODINA

  9. Software scheme 10.8 mm (IR) – time t-1 10.8 mm (IR) – time t Calibration 6.2 mm (WV1) – time t Filter application to sharpen cloud edges 7.3 mm (WV2) – time t CONVECTIVE OBJECTS (COs) DETECTION AND TRAKING MODEL NEFODINA Detection in the IR image of all possible COs using a varying threshold method STATIC ANALYSIS (Tmin, Tmed, Tmod, Area, shape, slope, etc..) DYNAMIC ANALYSIS Already detected First detection PARENTAL RELATIONSHIP COs Discrimination on the base of IR features by comparison with previous slot CROSS ANALYSIS COs Discrimination on the base of IR, WV1, WV2 features LIFE PHASE EVALUATION GRAPHIC OUTPUT ASCII OUTPUT WITH STORY OF COs An Italian tool for convection: NEFODINA

  10. Parental Relationship Cross correlation between the COs detected at time t and the COs detected at time (t-1) evaluated minimizing a weighted distance function d on the position of the centre of gravity d1, minimum temperature d2 and modal temperature d3 An Italian tool for convection: NEFODINA

  11. Software scheme 10.8 mm (IR) – time t-1 10.8 mm (IR) – time t Calibration 6.2 mm (WV1) – time t Filter application to sharpen cloud edges 7.3 mm (WV2) – time t CONVECTIVE OBJECTS (COs) DETECTION AND TRAKING MODEL NEFODINA Detection in the IR image of all possible COs using a varying threshold method STATIC ANALYSIS (Tmin, Tmed, Tmod, Area, shape, slope, etc..) DYNAMIC ANALYSIS Already detected First detection PARENTAL RELATIONSHIP COs Discrimination on the base of IR features by comparison with previous slot CROSS ANALYSIS COs Discrimination on the base of IR, WV1, WV2 features LIFE PHASE EVALUATION GRAPHIC OUTPUT ASCII OUTPUT WITH STORY OF COs An Italian tool for convection: NEFODINA

  12. IR (10.8 mm) WV1 (6.2 mm) WV2 (7.3 mm) 7 JULY 2005 - 17:30 Cross Analysis We classified as convective the object with the same features in the IR and WVchannels An Italian tool for convection: NEFODINA

  13. ColdObjects Nefodina, in spite of the optimal demonstrated performances, is constantly monitored DETECTION ERROR SOLVED: Some objects near the limit of the troposphere and therefore near the thermal inversion, showed a top more crushed and cold so they weren’t identified like convective from the algorithm because discarded for the low value of the slope index An Italian tool for convection: NEFODINA

  14. ColdObjects Case study: 7 May 2005 An Italian tool for convection: NEFODINA

  15. Software scheme 10.8 mm (IR) – time t-1 10.8 mm (IR) – time t Calibration 6.2 mm (WV1) – time t Filter application to sharpen cloud edges 7.3 mm (WV2) – time t CONVECTIVE OBJECTS (COs) DETECTION AND TRAKING MODEL NEFODINA Detection in the IR image of all possible COs using a varying threshold method STATIC ANALYSIS (Tmin, Tmed, Tmod, Area, shape, slope, etc..) DYNAMIC ANALYSIS Already detected First detection PARENTAL RELATIONSHIP COs Discrimination on the base of IR features by comparison with previous slot CROSS ANALYSIS COs Discrimination on the base of IR, WV1, WV2 features LIFE PHASE EVALUATION GRAPHIC OUTPUT ASCII OUTPUT WITH STORY OF COs An Italian tool for convection: NEFODINA

  16. Life Cicleof a ConvectiveCell The Mesoscale Convective Systems (MCSs) are often correlated with heavy rainfall, thunderstorms and hail showers, frequently causing significant damage The most intensive weather activities occur during the growing phase An Italian tool for convection: NEFODINA

  17. DEVELOPMENT: DISSOLVING: OTHERWISE PERSISTENCE Development/Dissolvingphase Studies on the minimum temperature, area and slope index of objects detected in IR window channel and WV channels of METEOSAT6 has pointed out that the dissolving phase of the CO starts really only when the cloud top descent is simultaneous to a WV decrease. An Italian tool for convection: NEFODINA

  18. GRIB FILE ModelFields New Output Software scheme 10.8 mm (IR) – time t-1 10.8 mm (IR) – time t Calibration 6.2 mm (WV1) – time t Filter application to sharpen cloud edges 7.3 mm (WV2) – time t CONVECTIVE OBJECTS (COs) DETECTION AND TRAKING MODEL NEFODINA Detection in the IR image of all possible COs using a varying threshold method STATIC ANALYSIS (Tmin, Tmed, Tmod, Area, shape, slope, etc..) DYNAMIC ANALYSIS Already detected First detection PARENTAL RELATIONSHIP COs Discrimination on the base of IR features by comparison with previous slot CROSS ANALYSIS COs Discrimination on the base of IR, WV1, WV2 features LIFE PHASE EVALUATION GRAPHIC OUTPUT ASCII OUTPUT WITH STORY OF COs An Italian tool for convection: NEFODINA

  19. Software scheme 10.8 mm (IR) – time t-1 10.8 mm (IR) – time t Calibration 6.2 mm (WV1) – time t Filter application to sharpen cloud edges 7.3 mm (WV2) – time t CONVECTIVE OBJECTS (COs) DETECTION AND TRAKING MODEL NEFODINA Detection in the IR image of all possible COs using a varying threshold method STATIC ANALYSIS (Tmin, Tmed, Tmod, Area, shape, slope, etc..) DYNAMIC ANALYSIS Already detected First detection PARENTAL RELATIONSHIP COs Discrimination on the base of IR features by comparison with previous slot CROSS ANALYSIS COs Discrimination on the base of IR, WV1, WV2 features LIFE PHASE EVALUATION GRAPHIC OUTPUT ASCII OUTPUT WITH STORY OF COs An Italian tool for convection: NEFODINA

  20. Output An Italian tool for convection: NEFODINA

  21. Output With red shades are indicated the cloud top of the detected convective cell forecasted in growing phase With pink shades are indicated the cloud top of the detected convective cell forecasted in decreasing phase. The dark red and dark pink colors are used to indicate the most intensive convective regions. Blueshades are used to show the cloud to which we are interested. Dark blue is used for lowest cloud and light blue/yellow for highest clouds. An Italian tool for convection: NEFODINA

  22. Ascii file with the story Output An Italian tool for convection: NEFODINA

  23. MULTICELL Case study: 03 Agoust 2009 SINGLE CELLS SUPERCELL Case study: 2 July 2009 Case study: 23 September 2009 An Italian tool for convection: NEFODINA

  24. Case study: 23 September 2009 An Italian tool for convection: NEFODINA

  25. Case study: 23 September 2009 Cbs development along flanking line An Italian tool for convection: NEFODINA

  26. Verification Against Lightning Data Case study: 2 July 2009 Correlation = 84% An Italian tool for convection: NEFODINA

  27. NEFODINA – easily configurable: scene size, position, threshold, colors, additional information (CTH). An Italian tool for convection: NEFODINA

  28. NEFODINA Every area capability: Airoperations An Italian tool for convection: NEFODINA

  29. NEFODINA Every area capability: Maritime operations An Italian tool for convection: NEFODINA

  30. An Italian tool for convection: NEFODINA

  31. An Italian tool for convection: NEFODINA

  32. An Italian tool for convection: NEFODINA

  33. An Italian tool for convection: NEFODINA

  34. An Italian tool for convection: NEFODINA

  35. Rapidscan Service Second derivative: convection’s acceleration An Italian tool for convection: NEFODINA

  36. NEFODINA on Satrep Online? TO BE CONFIRMED

  37. Conclusions • NEFODINA has been developed to detect and forecast the severe convective systems present on the scene and all the convective cells inside these systems. • This is an important support for forecasters of the IAFMS, who test every day the performance and the reliability of this product, to diagnose the convective activity, evaluate its severity and its potential development. • Convection and Lightning • Earlywarningwithsecond derivative • The last threedaysof data on ftp.meteoam.it • (contactpointmelfi@meteoam.it) An Italian tool for convection: NEFODINA

  38. Thanks for your attention! An Italian tool for convection: NEFODINA

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