Converging Insecurities: climate, energy, water and food

1. Converging Insecurities: climate, energy, water and food ANDREW CAMPBELL Charles Darwin Symposium, 13 October 2011

2. Key Points • The age of cheap, abundant fossil fuel energy is coming to an end • The age of carbon accounting and pricing is here • Water security is a looming issue for northern Australia • Food security will be affected by all of these, and climatic events • Each of these has their own imperatives, but their interactions are equally, if not more important • We tend to deal with these issues in science, planning and policy silos • How could the NT lead the way in developing better approaches?

3. The climate is changing……

4. Predicted climate change impacts, Top End • Warmer temperatures on land, and in the ocean • Days >35˚C to rise from 11/year to more than 60/year by 2030 • Probably wetter Wets and possibly drier Dry seasons • Probably fewer cyclones, but higher % of Cat 4 & 5 • 60% increase in intensity of severe storms by 2030 • Rising sea levels (currently 7mm/year) • Increased risk of mosquito-borne diseases • Potential change in range of weeds & pests • Likely increasing challenge of managing fire extent and intensity • Increased heat stress and ticks on cattle (20% impact on beef production by 2030)

5. Observed rates of relative mean sea level rise (mm/year) over last 18 years +7.1 +7.5 +6.1 +7.5 +2.5 +1.2 +6.9 +2.9 +3.9 +4.2 +1.5 +2.3 +1.8 +3.0 SEAFRAME May 1990 Datum +0.3mm/yr Credit: Prof Eric Valentine, CDU

6. Darwin spring tide, late wet season Credit: Prof Eric Valentine, CDU

7. Credit: Prof Eric Valentine, CDU 1m Inundation

8. Converging Insecurities Climate change is not happening in a vacuum, but in parallel with other major drivers: • Population growth (on track for 9 billion by 2050) • Changing consumption patterns • Depletion of easily accessible oil reserves • Oil discovery peaked in the 1960s, and oil production is in decline, with 4 barrels consumed for every 1 discovered • 49 of 65 oil producing regions are past their peak point • The average post-peak production rate of decline is 6.7% per year • Australia has been a net importer since 1985, on track for depletion by 2020

9. Converging Insecurities (2) • Climate change • Direct impacts • Impacts of climate change policies – e.g. carbon markets • Energy — the era of cheap, abundant fossil fuels is coming to a close • Water • Every calorie we consume uses one litre in its production • Every litre weighs one kilogram — energy intensive to distribute it • Per capita freshwater availability declining steeply (globally) • Food — need to increase world production by 70% by 2050

10. Feeding the world • The world needs to increase food production by about 70% by 2050, & improve distribution • We have done this in the past, mainly through clearing, cultivating and irrigating more land • and intensification, better varieties, more fertiliser, pesticides • Climate change and oil depletion is narrowing those options, with limits to water, land, energy & nutrients. We need to grow food: • Using less land, water & energy and emitting less carbon • Improving nutrition, distribution, animal welfare, pollution • Looking after rural landscapes, biodiversity, animal welfare, amenity & communities

11. To decouple economic growth from carbon emissions • To adapt to an increasingly difficult climate • To increase water productivity — decoupling the 1 litre per calorie relationship • To increase energy productivity • more food energy out per unit of energy in • while shifting from fossil fuels to renewable energy • To develop more sustainable food systems • while conserving biodiversity and • improving landscape amenity, soil health, animal welfare & human health • TO DO ALL OF THE ABOVE SIMULTANEOUSLY!— improving sustainability and resilience Profound technical challenges

12. We need a third agricultural revolution • High level goals: e.g. doubling food & fibre production while doubling water productivity, and becoming a net energy producer from farming & pastoral lands • How to get there? • Farming systems that make more efficient use of and conserve water, energy, nutrients, carbon and biodiversity • Smart metering, sensing, telemetry, robotics, guidance, biotech • Better understanding of soil carbon & microbial activity • Radically reducing waste in all parts of the food chain • Farming systems producing renewable (2nd gen) bioenergy • Also producing energy from waste • Urban and peri-urban food production • Attracting talented young people into careers in agriculture

13. Climate-smart land use in the Top End • Managing whole landscapes to increase carbon storage • Smarter fire regimes • Better control of weeds and feral animals • Substantial co-benefits for biodiversity (wildlife and plants) • More sustainable livelihoods for traditional owners and pastoralists • Increasing food production for local resilience and food security • Groundwater (sustainable yield) and wastewater-based irrigation mosaics • Within and near to population centres • Integrating production of renewable energy • Large scale (solar, geothermal, tidal) for regional centres and export • Small scale (solar, wind, biodiesel, biomass) for households and remote firms & communities

14. The International Dimension • Is Darwin a northern outpost of a continent of 20m people, or a rich southern knowledge centre for a region of 500m people? • 45 minutes from Darwin, 1 million people in Timor-Leste • ~40% people malnourished (WFP VAM 2005) • many people seasonally hungry • food production varies widely with seasonal conditions, but rarely exceeds consumption, so imports are crucial • many key elements of a productive and sustainable system don’t exist • Australia has major opportunities to export know-how • Agricultural education and extension to develop a skilled workforce (professionals and practitioners [farmers & food processors]) • R&D to develop & refine locally useful knowledge and to develop new solutions • Catchment management to look after the best soils and protect water resources • Water management to protect water quality & improve water productivity • Renewable energy systems to become independent from imported oil

15. Planning landscapes & infrastructure • How can this all ‘fit’ at a landscape and regional scale? • The landscape needs to be re-plumbed and re-wired • We need new planning approaches that: • are robust under a range of climate change & demographic scenarios • build in resilience thinking (e.g. improve habitat connectivity & buffering, protect refugia) • accommodate carbon pollution mitigation options (energy, transport, food) • safeguard productive soil and allow for increased food production • facilitate recycling of water, nutrients and energy

16. Scales for response to climate change • Many of the main drivers of biodiversity loss operate at the landscape-scale e.g. habitat fragmentation, invasive species and changed fire regimes. • It is the scale which lends itsel CSIRO 2010

17. Northern Territory Climate Change Policy 2009 (http://www.greeningnt.nt.gov.au/climate/policy.html) Ambitious targets 60% emissions reduction by 2050 NTG carbon neutral in its own operations by 2018 20% energy from renewables by 2020 Replace diesel in remote communities by 2020 Comprehensive strategy 9 elements including towns, industry, workforce, waste, communities and living with change Detailed adaptation action plans for each sector, led by whole of government task force Leadership, resources & community engagement critical

18. Reflections on Darwin & the NT • We are at the end of long, vulnerable food supply chains • Real energy, nutrient and chemical prices (& hence local food prices) will likely increase steeply • We currently dump nutrient-rich waste in the harbour • There is plenty of scope to increase local food production • at household, urban and peri-urban scales • integration with local markets minimises food miles • And to better utilise waste streams & waste water • Potential integration of municipal/industrial waste with purpose-grown (not weedy) biomass energy crops • Household energy rating systems need to be tuned for the tropics!

19. In Summary • Climate, water, energy, food and health are interconnected • The age of cheap, abundant fossil fuel energy is ending • The carbon pricing era has begun • Rural, urban and regional planning needs to integrate its consideration of climate, carbon, water, energy and food • The Territory has both the imperative (risk exposure) and the opportunity (manageable scale, ability to get things done) to lead Australia (& the region) in managing these converging insecurities • This will deliver high value jobs & position the NT economy well LETS GO FOR IT

20. For more information e.g. Paddock to PlatePolicy Propositions for Sustainable Food Systems Managing Australian Soils Managing Australian Landscapes in a Changing Climate Powerful Choices: transition to a biofuel economy http://riel.cdu.edu.au