Watch in slide show mode to observe (modest) animation. comments questions: dan.kahan@yale

1. Watch in slide show mode to observe (modest) animation. comments questions: dan.kahan@yale.edu papers,etc: www.culturalcognition.net

2. www.culturalcognition.net The “Science Communication Problem” and Climate Change Dan M. Kahan Yale University

3. The Science Communication Problem • 1. What the source of the problem isn’t • 2. What the source of the problem is • 3. What “ ‘isn’t’ & ‘is’ ” imply for effective communication

4. The Science Communication Problem • 1. What the source of the problem isn’t: public irrationality thesis (PIT) • 2. What the source of the problem is • 3. What “ ‘isn’t’ & ‘is’ ” imply for effective communication

5. “How much risk do you believe climate change poses to human health, safety, or prosperity?” Greater perceived risk (z-score) Lesser U.S. general population survey, N = 1,500. Knowledge Networks, Feb. 2010. Scale 0 (“no risk at all”) to 10 (“extreme risk”), M = 5.7, SD = 3.4. CIs reflect 0.95 level of confidence.

6. “How much risk do you believe climate change poses to human health, safety, or prosperity?” PIT prediction: Science Illiteracy & Bounded Rationality Greater High Sci. litearcy/System 2 perceived risk (z-score) Low Sci. litearcy/System 1 Lesser U.S. general population survey, N = 1,500. Knowledge Networks, Feb. 2010. Scale 0 (“no risk at all”) to 10 (“extreme risk”), M = 5.7, SD = 3.4. CIs reflect 0.95 level of confidence.

7. “How much risk do you believe climate change poses to human health, safety, or prosperity?” Greater Risk PIT prediction PIT prediction actual variance actual variance perceived risk (z-score) Lesser Risk low high low high Science literacy Numeracy U.S. general population survey, N = 1,500. Knowledge Networks, Feb. 2010. Scale 0 (“no risk at all”) to 10 (“extreme risk”), M = 5.7, SD = 3.4. CIs reflect 0.95 level of confidence.

8. The Science Communication Problem • 1. What the source of the problem isn’t: public irrationality thesis (PIT) • 2. What the source of the problem is • 3. What “ ‘isn’t’ & ‘is’ ” imply for effective communication 

9. The Science Communication Problem • 1. What the source of the problem isn’t: public irrationality thesis (PIT) • 2. What the source of the problem is: motivated reasoning • 3. What “ ‘isn’t’ & ‘is’ ” imply for effective communication 

10. Cultural Cognition Worldviews Risk Perception Key Low Risk High Risk Hierarchy Abortion procedure industry, technology Guns/Gun Control compulsory psychiatric treatment Individualism Communitarianism Abortion procedure industry, technology compulsory psychiatric treatment Guns/Gun Control Egalitarianism

11. “How much risk do you believe climate change poses to human health, safety, or prosperity?” Cultural Variance Greater perceived risk (z-score) Lesser U.S. general population survey, N = 1,500. Knowledge Networks, Feb. 2010. Scale 0 (“no risk at all”) to 10 (“extreme risk”), M = 5.7, SD = 3.4. CIs reflect 0.95 level of confidence.

12. “How much risk do you believe climate change poses to human health, safety, or prosperity?” Cultural Variance Greater Egalitarian Communitarian Low Sci lit/numeracy perceived risk (z-score) High Sci lit/numeracy Hierarchical Individualist Lesser U.S. general population survey, N = 1,500. Knowledge Networks, Feb. 2010. Scale 0 (“no risk at all”) to 10 (“extreme risk”), M = 5.7, SD = 3.4. CIs reflect 0.95 level of confidence.

13. “How much risk do you believe climate change poses to human health, safety, or prosperity?” Cultural variance conditional on sci. literacy/numeracy? Greater Egalitarian Communitarian Low Sci lit/numeracy perceived risk (z-score) High Sci lit/numeracy Hierarchical Individualist Lesser U.S. general population survey, N = 1,500. Knowledge Networks, Feb. 2010. Scale 0 (“no risk at all”) to 10 (“extreme risk”), M = 5.7, SD = 3.4. CIs reflect 0.95 level of confidence.

14. “How much risk do you believe climate change poses to human health, safety, or prosperity?” Interaction of culture & sci-lit/num Greater HighSci lit/numeracy EgalComm LowSci/lit numeracy EgalComm Low Sci lit/numeracy perceived risk (z-score) High Sci lit/numeracy LowSci lit/num. HierarcIndivid HighSci lit/numeracy Hierarch Individ Lesser low high Scilit/num Scale U.S. general population survey, N = 1,500. Knowledge Networks, Feb. 2010. Scale 0 (“no risk at all”) to 10 (“extreme risk”), M = 5.7, SD = 3.4. CIs reflect 0.95 level of confidence.

15. “How much risk do you believe climate change poses to human health, safety, or prosperity?” Interaction of culture & sci-lit/num Greater HighSci lit/numeracy EgalComm LowSci/lit numeracy EgalComm Low Sci lit/numeracy perceived risk (z-score) High Sci lit/numeracy LowSci lit/num. HierarcIndivid HighSci lit/numeracy Hierarch Individ Lesser low high Scilit/num Scale U.S. general population survey, N = 1,500. Knowledge Networks, Feb. 2010. Scale 0 (“no risk at all”) to 10 (“extreme risk”), M = 5.7, SD = 3.4. CIs reflect 0.95 level of confidence.

16. “How much risk do you believe climate change poses to human health, safety, or prosperity?” POLARIZATION INCREASES as scil-lit/numeracy increases Greater HighSci lit/numeracy EgalComm LowSci/lit numeracy EgalComm Low Sci lit/numeracy perceived risk (z-score) High Sci lit/numeracy LowSci lit/num. HierarcIndivid HighSci lit/numeracy Hierarch Individ Lesser low high Scilit/num Scale U.S. general population survey, N = 1,500. Knowledge Networks, Feb. 2010. Scale 0 (“no risk at all”) to 10 (“extreme risk”), M = 5.7, SD = 3.4. CIs reflect 0.95 level of confidence.

17. The Science Communication Problem • 1. What the source of the problem isn’t: public irrationality thesis (PIT) • 2. What the source of the problem is: motivated reasoning • 3. What “ ‘isn’t’ & ‘is’ ” imply for effective communication  

18. The Science Communication Problem • 1. What the source of the problem isn’t: public irrationality thesis (PIT) • 2. What the source of the problem is: motivated reasoning • 3. What “ ‘isn’t’ & ‘is’ ” imply for effective communication: two channel strategy  

20. study_dismiss scale (α = 0.85)

21. Cultural Cognition Worldviews Risk Perception Key Low Risk High Risk Hierarchy Climate change Individualism Communitarianism Climate change Egalitarianism

22. Study dismissiveness Dismiss Hierarch Individ z_Study dismiss 2 EgalCommun Credit anti-pollution

23. Control Condition

24. Study dismissiveness Dismiss Hierarch Individ z_Study dismiss 2 EgalCommun Credit anti-pollution

25. Anti-pollution Condition

26. Study dismissiveness Dismiss Hierarch Individ z_Study dismiss 2 EgalCommun Credit anti-pollution

27. Study dismissiveness Dismiss Hierarch Individ z_Study dismiss 2 EgalCommun Credit anti-pollution

28. Geoengineering Condition

29. Study dismissiveness Dismiss Hierarch Individ z_Study dismiss 2 EgalCommun Credit anti-pollution

30. Study dismissiveness Dismiss Hierarch Individ z_Study dismiss 2 EgalCommun Credit anti-pollution

31. Polarization more polarization z_Study dismiss 2 less polarization anti-pollution

33. The Science Communication Problem • 1. What the source of the problem isn’t: public irrationality thesis (PIT) • 2. What the source of the problem is: motivated reasoning • 3. What “ ‘isn’t’ & ‘is’ ” imply for effective communication: two channel strategy   

34. Cultural Cognition Cat Scan Experiment Go to www.culturalcognition.net!