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UNITED STATES AND MICHIGAN PUBLIC SCHOOL PROJECTIONS September 23, 2009

UNITED STATES AND MICHIGAN PUBLIC SCHOOL PROJECTIONS September 23, 2009. Frederick R. Ignatovich, Professor Emeritus Michigan State University. Listen To Advice And Accept Instruction, That You May Gain Wisdom For The Future. (Proverbs 19:20). A Context for Regional and Local Events.

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UNITED STATES AND MICHIGAN PUBLIC SCHOOL PROJECTIONS September 23, 2009

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  1. UNITED STATES AND MICHIGAN PUBLIC SCHOOL PROJECTIONSSeptember 23, 2009 Frederick R. Ignatovich, Professor Emeritus Michigan State University

  2. Listen To Advice And Accept Instruction, That You May Gain Wisdom For The Future.(Proverbs 19:20) September 2009 - F. IGNATOVICH

  3. A Context for Regional and Local Events National Trends Michigan Trends

  4. THE NATIONAL PICTURE BIRTHS ENROLLMENTS / PROJECTIONS

  5. The National Birth Profile • The post war baby boom peaked in 1961 (4.27 million) • The baby bust started in 1962 and continued through 1976 (3.17 million) • The echo boom started in 1977 and peaked in 1990 (4.16 million) • Since 1990 births first declined (3.88 million in 1997) and then generally increased (to 4.25 million in 2008) Source: National Center for Health Statistics September 2009 - F. IGNATOVICH

  6. The National Picture – K-12 • Enrollments have annually risen since the 1992-93 school year with a slight slowdown in the rate of increase in recent years • K-12 Public school enrollments will continue to moderately rise over the next five years (from 2008-09 until 2013-14) increasing approximately 1.824 million or 3.8%(less than 1% per year) Source: National Center for Education Statistics September 2009 - F. IGNATOVICH

  7. The National Picture – K-5 • Echo boom enrollments peaks in 2000-2001 (21.75 million). • Slow modest decline from 2000-2001 until 2003-04. • Gradual increase from 2003-04 to 2008-09 (From 21.575 to 22.571 million). • K-5 Public school enrollments will continue to moderately rise over the next five years (from 2008-09 until 2013-14) increasing approximately 1.275 million or 5.6%(slightly greater than 1% per year). Source: National Center for Education Statistics September 2009 - F. IGNATOVICH

  8. The National Picture – 6-8 • Enrollments increased from 1992-93 to 2003-04 a 17.4% gain over 12 years (from 9.731 to 11.422 million). • Slow modest decline from 2003-2004 until 2008-09 a -3.3% loss over 5 years (from 11.422 to 11.048 million). • 6-8 Public school enrollments will continue to moderately and consistently rise over the next five years (from 2008-09 until 2013-14) increasing approximately .735 million or 6.7%(approximately 1.33% per year). Source: National Center for Education Statistics September 2009 - F. IGNATOVICH

  9. The National Picture – 9-12 • Enrollments increased from 1992-93 to 2007-08 a 30.2% gain over 16 years (from 11.466 to 14.933 million). • A modest decline was expected from 2007-2008 to 2008-09 a -0.9% loss (from 14.933 to 14.802 million). • 9-12 Public school enrollments will continue to slightly and consistently fall over the next five years (from 2008-09 until 2013-14) decreasing approximately .186 million or -1.3% (approximately -0.25% per year). Source: National Center for Education Statistics September 2009 - F. IGNATOVICH

  10. The National Picture – Senior Class • Senior Class enrollments increased .903 million students from 1992-93 to 2007-08 (from 2.431 to 3.334 or +37.1% over 15 years) • From 2007-08 to 2008-09 a decline to 3.318 students was expected (a loss of .016 million students or -0.5%) • Senior Class Public school enrollments will continue to modestly and consistently fall over the next five years (from 2008-09 until 2013-14) decreasing approximately .120 million or -3.6% (less than 1.0% per year). Source: National Center for Education Statistics September 2009 - F. IGNATOVICH

  11. THE STATE PICTURE BIRTHS ENROLLMENTS / PROJECTIONS

  12. The Michigan Birth Profile • The post war baby boom peaked in 1957 (208,488). • The baby bust started in 1958 andcontinued until 1976 (131,378). (Continued on Next Slide) September 2009 - F. IGNATOVICH

  13. The Michigan Birth Profile • The echo boom started in 1977 but was attenuated due to an economic downturn in the early 80’s. The echo boom ended in 1990 with 153,080 births. • Since 1990 births have slowly declined to a new low in 2008 at 124,635 (provisional data). Source: Michigan Department of Community Health September 2009 - F. IGNATOVICH

  14. The Michigan Picture – K-12 • Generally a moderate enrollment increase occurred from 1994-95 to 2003-04 (increasing from 1,548,817 to 1,690,990 students or +9.2% over nine years) then five years of moderate decline to 2008-09 (from 1,690,990 to 1,612,425 or -4.6%) • The Most Likely Projection indicates a substantial and consistent decline from 2008-09 to 2013-14 from 1,612,425 to 1,489,131 (approximately a 123,000 student loss or -7.6% over five years) • The Low Projection indicates a very substantial consistent decrease in enrollment over the next five years given a weak and unstable economy in the State of Michigan from 1,612,425 in the Fall of 2008 to 1,449,840 in the Fall of 2013 (a loss of approximately 163,000 or -10.1% over five years) • The High Projection indicates a consistent moderate loss in enrollment over the next five years given a strong and expanding economy in the State of Michigan from 1,612,425 in the Fall of 2008 to 1,529,482 in the Fall of 2013 (a loss of approximately 83,000 or -5.1% over five years) • Given current and anticipated economic conditions we believe enrollments will fall between the most likely and low for the short term (next year or two) and at the most likely for the long term (three to five years) Source: F. Ignatovich, Professor MSU September 2009 - F. IGNATOVICH

  15. The Michigan Picture – K-5 • Generally a moderate enrollment increase occurred from 1994-95 to 1998-99 (increasing from 752,215 to 796,202 students or +5.8% over four years) then ten years of moderate decline to 2008-09 (from 796,202 to 712,200 or -10.6%) • The Most Likely Projection indicates a moderate and consistent decline from 2008-09 to 2013-14 from 712,200 to 669,019 (approximately a 43,000 student loss or -6.1% over five years) • The Low Projection indicates a substantial consistent decrease in enrollment over the next five years given a weak and unstable economy in the State of Michigan from 712,200 in the Fall of 2008 to 651,578 in the Fall of 2013 (a loss of approximately 61,000 or -8.5% over five years) • The High Projection indicates a consistent modest loss in enrollment over the next five years given a strong and expanding economy in the State of Michigan from 712,200 in the Fall of 2008 to 686,698 in the Fall of 2013 (a loss of approximately 26,000 or -3.6% over five years) • Given current and anticipated economic conditions we believe enrollments will fall between the most likely and low for the short term (next year or two) and at the most likely for the long term (three to five years) Source: F. Ignatovich, Professor MSU September 2009 - F. IGNATOVICH

  16. The Michigan Picture – 6-8 • Generally a modest enrollment increase occurred from 1994-95 to 2003-04 (increasing from 356,991 to 415,455 students or +16.4% over nine years) then five years of substantial decline to 2008-09 (from 415,455 to 364,773 or -12.2%) • The Most Likely Projection indicates a moderate and consistent decline from 2008-09 to 2013-14 from 364,773 to 344,547 (approximately a 20,000 student loss or -5.5% over five years) • The Low Projection indicates a substantial and consistent decrease in enrollment over the next five years given a weak and unstable economy in the State of Michigan from 364,773 in the Fall of 2008 to 340,629 in the Fall of 2013 (a loss of approximately 24,000 or -6.6% over five years) • The High Projection indicates a consistent moderate loss in enrollment over the next five years given a strong and expanding economy in the State of Michigan from 364,773 in the Fall of 2008 to 348,599 in the Fall of 2013 (a loss of approximately 16,000 or -4.4% over five years) • Given current and anticipated economic conditions we believe enrollments will fall between the most likely and low for the short term (next year or two) and at the most likely for the long term (three to five years) Source: F. Ignatovich, Professor MSU September 2009 - F. IGNATOVICH

  17. The Michigan Picture – 9-12 • Generally a very substantial enrollment increase occurred from 1994-95 to 2007-08 (increasing from 439,611 to 549,290 students or +24.9% over thirteen years) then a one year substantial decline to 2008-09 (from 549,290 to 535,452 or -2.5%) • The Most Likely Projection indicates a substantial and consistent decline from 2008-09 to 2013-14 from 535,452 to 475,565 (approximately a 60,000 student loss or -11.2% over five years) • The Low Projection indicates a very substantial and consistent decrease in enrollment over the next five years given a weak and unstable economy in the State of Michigan from 535,452 in the Fall of 2008 to 457,633 in the Fall of 2013 (a loss of approximately 78,000 or -14.5% over five years) • The High Projection indicates a consistent substantial loss in enrollment over the next five years given a strong and expanding economy in the State of Michigan from 535,452 in the Fall of 2008 to 494,185 in the Fall of 2013 (a loss of approximately 41,000 or -7.7% over five years) • Given current and anticipated economic conditions we believe enrollments will fall between the most likely and low for the short term (next year or two) and at the most likely for the long term (three to five years) Source: F. Ignatovich, Professor MSU September 2009 - F. IGNATOVICH

  18. The Michigan Picture – Senior Class • Generally a very substantial and consistent enrollment increase occurred from 1994-95 to 2008-09 (increasing from 91,704 to 126,352 students or +37.8% over fourteen years) • The Most Likely Projection indicates a very substantial and consistent decline from 2008-09 to 2013-14 from 126,352 to 108,745 (approximately a 18,000 student loss or -13.9% over five years) • The Low Projection indicates a very large and consistent decrease in enrollment over the next five years given a weak and unstable economy in the State of Michigan from 126,352 in the Fall of 2008 to 102,079 in the Fall of 2013 (a loss of approximately 24,000 or -19.2% over five years) • The High Projection indicates a consistent and substantial loss in enrollment over the next five years given a strong and expanding economy in the State of Michigan from 126,352 in the Fall of 2008 to 115,735 in the Fall of 2013 (a loss of approximately 11,000 or -8.4% over five years) • Given current and anticipated economic conditions we believe enrollments will fall between the most likely and low for the short term (next year or two) and at the most likely for the long term (three to five years) Source: F. Ignatovich, Professor MSU September 2009 - F. IGNATOVICH

  19. SUMMARY OF PROJECTIONSUNITED STATES AND MICHIGAN PUBLIC SCHOOLSFROM 2008-09 TO 2013-14

  20. A Thought From Socrates “The unexamined life is not worth living.” Source: Socrates in Plato, Dialogues, Apology Greek philosopher in Athens (469 BC – 399 BC) September 2009 - F. IGNATOVICH

  21. What Is The Picture In Your Part Of The Forest? September 2009 - F. IGNATOVICH

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