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Evaluation of the OTC 12-km CMAQ simulation for 2002

Evaluation of the OTC 12-km CMAQ simulation for 2002. New York State Department of Environmental Conservation Division of Air Resources November 16, 2005. Daily maximum 8-hour O 3. Time series of daily maximum 8-hour O 3 , April-October. Observed/predicted averages. Mean bias.

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Evaluation of the OTC 12-km CMAQ simulation for 2002

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  1. Evaluation of the OTC 12-km CMAQ simulation for 2002 New York State Department of Environmental Conservation Division of Air Resources November 16, 2005

  2. Daily maximum 8-hour O3

  3. Time series of daily maximum 8-hour O3, April-October Observed/predicted averages Mean bias • Tendency to underpredict peak O3 • Mean bias ~ -15 to +10 ppb (P-O) • Overprediction during the mid-April episode • Larger underpredictions during Quebec forest fires (July 6-9) and mid-August episode

  4. Coefficient of determination (r2) for daily maximum 8-hour O3 ● < 0.4 ● 0.4-0.5 ● 0.5-0.6 ● 0.6-0.7 ● 0.7-0.8 ● > 0.8

  5. Number of days daily maximum 8-hour O3 exceeds 75 ppb Observations ○ 0 ● 1-3 ● 4-10 ● 11-20 ● 21-30 ● 31-40 ● >40 CMAQ

  6. Selected statistical measures for daily maximum 8-hour O3 in all 8 New York State non-attainment areas

  7. Diurnal variations at Albany-Schenectady-Troy, NY sites May-September

  8. Non-methane hydrocarbons

  9. Composite diurnal variations in ethene and isoprene

  10. Daily average ethene, isoprene, and formaldehyde concentrations • On average, CMAQ overpredicts ethene by 75% , overpredicts isoprene by 72 % , and underpredicts HCHO by 9%

  11. 6-9 am NOx, TNMOC, and NOx/TNMOC ratios • On average, CMAQ overpredicts morning NOx by 28%, overpredicts TNMOC by 100%, and underpredicts the ratio by 45%

  12. Trace gas precursors and co-pollutants

  13. Composite monthly variations

  14. Composite diurnal variations – Winter months (Jan, Feb, Dec)

  15. Composite diurnal variations – Summer months (Jun-Aug)

  16. Composite CMAQ over/underprediction

  17. PM2.5 mass and speciation

  18. Monthly average PM2.5 FRM mass and speciation (STN sites)

  19. Monthly average PM2.5 speciation (STN sites)

  20. Monthly average PM2.5 speciation (IMPROVE sites)

  21. Monthly average PM2.5 speciation (IMPROVE sites) (Only 3 IMPROVE monitors have NH4 data, so data are not shown here)

  22. Effect of the Quebec forest fires, July 6-9 • Quebec forest fires raised July average OM and PM2.5 by 4-5 μg m-3 at STN sites

  23. SO4 and NO3 concentrations in wet deposition

  24. Quarterly (Jul-Sep) average SO4 and NO3 at 130 NADP/NTN and 21 NYSDEC wet deposition sites across 12 km domain

  25. Observed and predicted SO4 and NO3 in wet deposition, 3rd quarter, entire 12 km domain

  26. Summary • Analysis is preliminary and does not reflect the latest modeling guidance • We are developing a framework for analysis that will be updated when emissions are finalized • Analysis will be fine-tuned for the eight O3 and one PM2.5 NAA in New York

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