Evaluation of 2002 Annual 12km MM5 Surface Parameters for OTC Modeling

1. Evaluation of 2002 Annual 12km MM5 Surface Parameters for OTC Modeling Shan He and Gary Kleiman NESCAUM And Winston Hao NYDEC Review of Application and Assessment of CMAQ in OTC Albany, NY November 16, 2005

2. Observation Network

3. WIND

4. WINTER Wind Speed

5. WINTER Wind Speed (II)

6. WINTER Wind Direction

7. SPRING Wind Speed

8. SPRING Wind Speed (II)

9. SPRING Wind Direction

10. SUMMER Wind Speed

11. SUMMER Wind Speed (II)

12. SUMMER Wind Direction

13. FALL Wind Speed

14. FALL Wind Speed (II)

15. FALL Wind Direction

16. WIND • MM5 tends to overestimate wind speed at CASTNet sites, and underestimate wind speed at TDL sites • Mean bias of MM5 wind speed to CASTNet wind speed is ~0.3 to 0.4m/s, while mean bias of MM5 wind speed to TDL wind speed is about ~-0.5 to -0.6m/s • MM5 wind speed shows similar IOA (~0.7 to 0.8) for both CASTnet data and TDL data • MM5 wind direction shows larger variation to CASTNet wind direction than to TDL wind direction • However, mean bias of MM5 wind direction to CASTNet wind direction is smaller than mean bias of MM5 wind direction to TDL wind direction

17. TEMPERATURE

18. WINTER Temperature

19. WINTER Temperature (II)

20. SPRING Temperature

21. SPRING Temperature (II)

22. SUMMER Temperature

23. SUMMER Temperature (II)

24. FALL Temperature

25. FALL Temperature (II)

26. TEMPERATURE • MM5 tends to underestimate temperature at TDL sites all year, and at CASTNet sites for seasons other than 5month summer • MM5 performs better on temperature for Summer than for Winter • Unsystematic RMSE dominates RMSE at TDL sites consistently, while at CASTNet sites, RMSEU weights similar as RMSES • MM5 shows good IOA at TDL sites (~0.9), better than at CASTNet sites (~0.8)

27. HUMIDITY

28. WINTER Humidity

29. SPRING Humidity

30. SUMMER Humidity

31. FALL Humidity

32. HUMIDITY • MM5 captures general trend of humidity change • MM5 tends to overestimate humidity in Winter, Spring, and Fall, but underestimate humidity in 5 month Summer • MM5 often shows larger diurnal variations than observation • Unsystematic RMSE dominates RMSE • MM5 shows good IOA (~0.9) all year