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The Wrinkling of Rural

The Wrinkling of Rural. Part 5. The Wrinkling of Rural. DO NOT GO GENTLY INTO THAT GOOD NIGHT. OLD AGE SHOULD BURN AND RAVE AT THE CLOSE OF DAY; RAGE, RAGE AGAINST THE DYING OF THE LIGHT DYLAN THOMAS. Critical Demographics Segment from 2015 to 2030.

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The Wrinkling of Rural

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  1. The Wrinkling of Rural Part 5

  2. The Wrinkling of Rural DO NOT GO GENTLY INTO THAT GOOD NIGHT. OLD AGE SHOULD BURN AND RAVE AT THE CLOSE OF DAY; RAGE, RAGE AGAINST THE DYING OF THE LIGHT DYLAN THOMAS

  3. Critical Demographics Segment from 2015 to 2030 • From 2015 to 2030 we will increase our total population of children by (Estimated) 7,352,000 [Children are aged 14 and younger] • If the current scenario holds true, 80 percent of these children will attend school in 144 metropolitan counties and 181 amenity “hot growth” counties in rural areas. • During the same period the population of persons aged 65+ will increase 26,200,000 persons • You do the math

  4. Rapidly Aging/Fast Growing 5 4 6 3 2 1 5 1 2 USATODAY4/21/05 4 3 Rapidly Aging Fastest Growing

  5. The Old In Modern Human History Until the turn of the 19th into the 20th Century, the world population maintained a constant relationship between age segments Most ecologist and demographers agree that the most significant change to the planet in the 20th Century is the aging of the human species. From the beginning of the modern era until 1900 the total proportion of those over 65 to those under that age remained a constant 5% percent. During the 21st Century – we are headed for the 35% level.

  6. Percent of the Total Population Aged 65 and Over - 2003

  7. And 50 Years in the Future Proportion of Total Population Aged 65 years & older Less developed nations More developed nations United Nations Population Bulletin, 2003

  8. Take Home Points • In 1960 there were 16 workers for every person on social security in the U.S. • By 2045 there will be 3 workers for every person on social security (under contemporary scenario) • By 2050 the world should hit the 34 percent mark for persons 65 and over • By 2999 we should reach a stable point at 38 percent of the world

  9. Incomes Age Structure Birth Rates Decline Entitlement Retirement Pensions CONDTIONS TRENDS KEY ISSUES Health Care – Elderly - Incomes

  10. An Aging World About 795,000 persons in the world cross the line from middle age to elderly each month. The number of elderly in the U.S. increased 12 fold from 1900 – 2000 or 3 million to 42 million. By 2030 about 70 million of our population will be old

  11. Quick Facts • Over the next 70 years the world will undergo the greatest demographic change in all its history • In 2050 in the U.S. there will be 27.1 million children age 5 and under & 78.8 million aged 65 and over • By 2070 there will be 106 million elderly persons in the United States out of our projected 490 million persons

  12. Even Quicker Facts • In 2030 seniors will out number school aged children in 10 states – currently no state has more seniors than children • By 2030 approx. 26 states will double their population of elderly • Thirty two percent of the residents in 6 states will be elderly – we want service, not no stinking schools – and we vote early and often

  13. The Real Story The real story of rural areas is the elderly. In U.S. deep rural communities under 5,000 – one in three persons will be aged 65+ by 2030.

  14. Local Impact By 2030 the elderly share of the population will rise to 32 percent of the population of U.S.’ Deep Rural areas. In terms of the total package, we calculate that 40 percent of all public expenditures on the local level will be directed towards elderly support, medical services, and transfer payments. Currently it is 22 percent

  15. Presentation Of The Check For The Public Share For Elderly Health Care • Assisted Care Costs • 1987 - 11 billion • 1996 – 70 billion • 2002 – 400 billion • 2015 – 1.2 trillion • All Health Care • 2003 – 1.67 trillion • 2015 – 2.1 trillion 2005 Health Cost – 17.1 % GNP

  16. Why The Great Increase in Health Care Costs? • The last two years of life are the most medically intense for the average American • The last two years of treatment are not for life extension, but for quality of life & maintenance • This type of treatment tends to be the most expensive

  17. The Victims • Elderly support – if it continues at the same level it will devastate the following budgets: • Education and education infrastructure • Local infrastructure • Local and some state based transfer payments for retirement • Local arts, parks, recreation and workforce development • Medicare, Social Security & Trust Fund

  18. Most Vulnerable of the Victims U.S. Counties that could have 30% of their population elderly

  19. Menu of Pain • The current deferred generational red ink equals $4.5 trillion – pick an option • Increase federal income taxes (69% change) • Increase payroll taxes (95% change) • Decrease discretional federal spending (96%) • Decrease Social Security and Medicare Benefits • Let the SS fund deplete in 2032 and pay-as-you-go • Cut education spending Gokhale & Smetters, 2003

  20. Opportunities? In 2030 about 33 percent of all persons aged 70 and over require some form of skilled or assistant term care About 4.3 million units of new long term care housing must be supplied at an average cost of $7,570 per month (2015 dollars) for assisted care. Even more important, we must recruit 740,000 assisted care and health workers to support this elderly population

  21. Enter the Baby Boomers

  22. If You Don’t Recognize One of These Pictures – You Are Not Baby Boomer Baby Boomers Were Born Between 1946 & 1964 In the U.S. Today, Someone Hits Age 50 Every 7 Seconds

  23. The Age Bulge from 1960 to 2020 1960 2000 U.S. Census Bureau

  24. Segments Of the Baby Boomers Independent, will work part time until they die 9% Totally Dependent on Soc. Sec. and Medicare 25% 23% Do not plan to work at all after retirement Will get by no matter what. Will work part time if need. 13% 30% During the Baby Boom Cycle – 30 million people will be totally dependent on Transfer payments – Think in terms of 2.4 trillion dollars

  25. Our Oldest Old – Percent of Population Aged 75+ United Nations 2000 - 2001

  26. Will It Continue? Expected life term survival rates from 1970 - 2030

  27. Yes, Survival Rates Will Continue to Increase at a Slow Rate United Nations 2000 - 2001

  28. Projected Population Structure For the U.S. 2050

  29. And, Poor Canada

  30. Quick Facts • In 2025 Europe there will be 2.8 elderly persons per child • Europe as a whole will shrink by 142 million persons (pop. of France & Italy) • Japan and New Zealand will be the oldest countries in the world – 15 percent will be over 80

  31. The Overall Impact • The long gray wave of Baby Boomers retiring could lead to an all-engulfing economic crisis -- unless we balance the budget, rein in senior entitlements, raise retirement ages, and boost individual and pension savings. Yet politicians of both parties say that most of the urgently necessary reforms are "off the table." Richard Lewis

  32. Mobility Issues – Results of Cross National Studies • One of the few cross-national studies of elderly migration (Rogers, 1998) identified two basic patterns. • One is characterized by amenity or health motivated, long-distance relocation • The other by intra-community, assistance-motivated short-distance moves. • This is important because --- next slide

  33. Elderly & Retirement Issues • Elderly services and retooling infrastructure will be a premier opportunity for rural areas • Requires a complete re-thinking of local development policies • Perhaps as many as 20 percent of small towns could qualify as retirement destinations

  34. Births & Marriage

  35. Birth Rates • Data for 2001 birth rates are the lowest ever recorded since records began – total of 4,019,480 • One-third of all live births are to unmarried women, but teen pregnancies are finally declining • The big decline in births began in 1991

  36. The Fertility Rate – Number of Live Births Per 1,000 Women • We peaked in 1957 when the US produced a baby every 7 seconds – a rate of 3.68 per 1000. We freaked about rampant growth • In 1970 it was 2.48 births per 1,000 and bottomed at 1.74 in 1976 • The baby bust of the 70s was followed by the birth dearth of the 80s • In 2004 we returned to 2.2 – this is sustainable

  37. 20th Century Birth Rates 1910 2000

  38. But, Survival Rates The Number of Infant Deaths Between 0 – 5 years of age per one thousand births

  39. Median Age of U.S. Non-Immigrants at First Marriage Waiting for Mr. Perfect

  40. Some Other Factors • We consistently win the divorce Tour de France each year • The best fertility years for males are age 20 – 24; the median age at first marriage for males in 26.8 • Purposely childless couples have tripled in the last 20 years • Women in the work place • Globalized attitudes towards wealth and consumption – no fun with excess children

  41. Good Advice “ALWAYS BE NICE TO YOUR CHILDREN BECAUSE THEY ARE THE ONES THAT WILL CHOOSE YOUR REST HOME” Phyllis Diller

  42. The Future For Our Children • Big, Blue and Wrinkled All Over • How Old? How Wrinkled? – VERY • The world tipping point between elderly 65+ and children 0 – 18 will be reached in 2035-2045 • This will is not a a simple trend – it will be forever under the current scenario with a rising life expectancy and low birth rates • China will go to into decline within 45 years and be profoundly unbalanced towards males

  43. The Opportunities of Growing Older "Global demographic change is occurring at a rate never seen before and we will need to pay close attention to how our towns respond to the challenges and opportunities of growing older.”

  44. Dark days are upon me, my husband is dead, I look at the future, I shudder with dread,For my young are all rearing young of their own, And I think of the years and the love that I've known;I'm an old woman now and nature is cruel -- 'Tis her jest to make old age look like a fool.

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