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The Rural Economy of the East of Scotland

The Rural Economy of the East of Scotland. ESEP Seminar Fraserburgh Lighthouse Museum 29 September 2003. Presentation. the ESEP labour market service defining the rural area review of economic and labour market data. ESEP labour market service. launched January 2002

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The Rural Economy of the East of Scotland

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  1. The Rural Economy of the East of Scotland ESEP Seminar Fraserburgh Lighthouse Museum 29 September 2003

  2. Presentation • the ESEP labour market service • defining the rural area • review of economic and labour market data

  3. ESEP labour market service • launched January 2002 • labour market information service for ESEP and its partners • principal output - major annual report: • www.esep.co.uk • ad hoc reports and services: • ERDF/ESF-funded community development projects • strategic sector profiles • autumn seminars

  4. East of Scotland Programme Area

  5. Defining “rural” • open land/primary products/rural landscapes • higher share of employment/GDP in agriculture and primary industries • fewer large firms: more self-employment and micro-businesses • sparse population/distance from major centres Source: Cabinet Office

  6. East of Scotland rural areas • Aberdeenshire • Angus • Moray • Perth & Kinross • Stirling • …but that’s not the extent of it • Clackmannanshire • Fife • Lothians

  7. Rural Scotland insert rural Scotland map

  8. Degrees of rurality • suburbia • city fringe • rurban commuter belt • accessible countryside • deep rural areas • market towns • seaside resorts • industrial towns and villages

  9. Scotland: urban-rural classification insert 6-fold classification map

  10. East of Scotland Objective 2/3 Programmes • Priority 1 Strategic economic development • 1.1 SMEs • 1.2 Risk capital • 1.3 Technology/knowledge transfer • Priority 2 Strategic locations & sectors • 2.1 Locations • 2.2 Locations and sectors • Priority 3 Community economic development • 3.1 Community engagement and capacity building • 3.2 Social infrastructure • 3.3 Thematic community development • Objective 3 • Measure 2.3 Rural exclusion

  11. The statistics • the five Council areas compared: • with each other • with the rest of the Programme area • with rural Scotland • with Scotland • health warning!

  12. Population change 1991-2011

  13. Population change 1991-2011

  14. The 10 towns: population change 1991-2001

  15. Demographic change • population growth in rural EoS outstrips rest of Scotland • growth in the accessible countryside outstrips remote areas • strong growth in: • Elgin, Inverurie, small cities • decline in: • Banff, Keith, Montrose

  16. Employee jobs change 1996-2001 (%)

  17. Employee jobs change 1996-2001(%)

  18. Employee jobs change by type, 1996-2001(%)

  19. Employee jobs change by type, 1996-2001(%)

  20. Full & part time employment, working age, 2001 (%)

  21. Full & part time employment, working age, 2001(%)

  22. Male & female, % change in employee job numbers, 1996-2001

  23. Male & female, % change in employee jobs, 1996-2001

  24. Employment trends • employment growth 96-01 slower in rural areas than urban • east held back by Aberdeenshire figures • strong employment growth in Stirling and Perth & Kinross • mostly in the cities? • growth in P/T employment in P&K and Moray • but Moray still has low P/T employment • strong increase in male employment • especially in Stirling

  25. Agricultural workforce, Scotland, 1982-2002

  26. Fishermen employed on Scottish based vessels, 1996-2000

  27. Fisheries employment by district & type, 2000

  28. Agriculture and fishing • long-term decline in agricultural workforce • big shift from f/t to p/t • 26,000 employed in EoS • of which 46% Grampian/Moray, 25% Tayside • sharp decline in Scottish fisheries employment to <7,000 • Fraserburgh top with 1,200 • Peterhead 600 • Buckie 400

  29. Company base by firm size

  30. Employment by firm size

  31. Change in company stock by size, 1996-2001(%)

  32. Employee job distribution by sector, 2001 (%)

  33. Compared to Scotland, ESEP rural areas have… • a higher proportion of jobs in • construction • wholesale, retail, repair • hotels and restaurants • health and social work • a lower proportion of jobs in • financial services • business services

  34. Employee job distribution by sector, 2001 (%)

  35. Differences between rural areas • P&K and Stirling have: • much less manufacturing • more wholesale/retail and hotel/rest and financial services • Aberdeenshire has: • more construction and business services • Moray has: • more education • Angus has: • more health and social work

  36. Sector performance/regional share (Scotland)

  37. Sector performance/regional share (East of Scotland)

  38. Sector performance/regional share (5 rural areas)

  39. The shape of the East of Scotland rural economy • well-represented growth sectors • personal services, education, health/social, hotel/catering, construction, wholesale/retail • under-represented growth sectors • business services, financial services, transport/comm • over-represented declining sectors • public admin, extractive, agriculture, fishing • under-represented declining industries • manufacturing • low-wage industries • public sector and caring • weak in tradeable services • doesn’t include most agri/fishing • big local variations

  40. Sector performance/regional share (Scotland rural areas)

  41. Change in VAT registered businesses, 1996-2001 (%)

  42. Change in VAT registered businesses, 1996-2001 (%)

  43. Change in number of self employed, 1997-2003 (%)

  44. Self employed as % of all in employment, 1997-2003

  45. Employment by occupation

  46. Employment by occupation, change 1996-2000 (%)

  47. Employment by occupation, rural ESEP, change1996-2000 (%)

  48. Occupational mix • labour force composition in line with Scotland • change 1996-2000 patchy, but EoS has seen: • strong growth in managerial/professional/ technician • sharp decline in craft and unskilled jobs

  49. Average gross weekly wage,1999-2002 (£/%)

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