Haz ar d a nd Risk Identification

1. HazardandRisk Identification July1,2014

2. ConceptDefinitions • Hazard–Anintrinsicchemical,physical,societal,economicorpoliticalconditionthathasthepotentialforcausingdamagetoariskreceptor(people,propertyortheenvironment). • Ahazardouseventrequiresaninitiatingeventorfailureandtheneitherfailureoforlackofsafeguardstopreventtherealisationofthehazardousevent. • Examplesofintrinsichazards: • Toxicityandflammability– H2Sinsournaturalgas • Highpressureandtemperature–steamdrum • Potentialenergy–walkingatightrope

3. ConceptDefinitions Risk–Ameasureofhumaninjury,environmentaldamageoreconomiclossintermsofboththefrequencyandthemagnitudeofthelossorinjury. Risk=ConsequencexFrequency

4. ConceptDefinitions Risk IntrinsicHazards UndesirableEvent Likelihood ofEvent Consequences Likelihoodof Consequences Example Storagetankwithflammablematerial Lossoflife/property,Environmentaldamage,Damagetoreputationoffacility SpillandFire

5. ConceptDefinitions Risk IntrinsicHazards UndesirableEvent Likelihood ofEvent Consequences Likelihoodof Consequences Causes

6. ConceptDefinitions Risk LayersofProtection LayersofProtection IntrinsicHazards UndesirableEvent Likelihood ofEvent Consequences Likelihoodof Consequences Causes Preparedness,Mitigation, LandUsePlanning, Response,Recovery Prevention

7. RiskyActivity:Jaywalking TorontoStar

8. RiskyActivity:Jaywalking • IntrinsicHazard • Vehiclesonroad • Speedofthesevehicles • Cause • CrossingtheRoad • Event • Collision • LayerofProtection • Crosswalk TorontoStar

9. RiskyActivity:Jaywalking • ConsequencesoftheEvent • Death • SevereInjury • BrokenBones • FracturedBones • Scratches • NoInjury • FrequencyoftheEvent • EveryDay, • Onceaweek • Onceamonth • Onceayear • Never TorontoStar

10. RiskyActivity:PlaneLanding • AsianaAirlinesBoeing777crashonJuly6,2013at • SanFranciscoInternationalAirport • 8deathsand180injuries

11. RiskyActivity:PlaneLanding

12. RiskyActivity:PlaneLanding • Hazard • Planeflight • Cause • Potentiallyhumanerror • duringrunwayapproach • Event • Crashduringlanding • Consequence • Deaths

13. RiskyActivity:PlaneLanding • Hazard • Planeflight • Cause • Potentiallyhumanerror • duringrunwayapproach • Event • Crashduringlanding • Consequence • Deaths Ifthefrequencyoftheconsequenceisknown,riskcanbecalculated. Risk=ConsequencexFrequency 13

14. RiskyActivity:PlaneLanding MultipleConsequencescanresultfromacrashduringplanelanding: • Deaths • PermanentDisability • InjuryRequiringHospitalisation • FirstAir 𝑹࢏࢙𝒌ࢉ࢘𝒂࢙ࢎ =࢏ 𝑪࢕࢔࢙ࢋࢗ𝒖ࢋ࢔ࢉࢋ࢏,ࢉ࢘𝒂࢙ࢎ ࢞𝑭࢘ࢋࢗ𝒖ࢋ࢔ࢉ࢟࢕ࢌ𝑪࢕࢔࢙ࢋࢗ𝒖ࢋ࢔ࢉࢋ࢏,ࢉ࢘𝒂࢙ࢎ Allconsequencesmustbeexpressedin thesameunitstocalculatetotalrisk. 14

15. ConceptDefinitions Risk–Ameasureofhumaninjury,environmentaldamageoreconomiclossintermsofboththefrequencyandthemagnitudeofthelossorinjury. Impact Risk Source • RiskReceptor • Anindividual • Acommunity • Anenvironment • Aproperty • Acorporation • Employees • Shareholders • Society Areawhereundesirableeventscanoccur: • Industrialfacilities–resourceextraction,processing,manufacturing,disposal,energygeneration,transportation • Thirdpartyenvironments– legislative,political,societal 15

16. TypesofConsequences LocationalConsequence–OutdoorIMMOVEABLEreceptorthatismaximallyexposed. Probabilityoftheeffect,Pd(death,damage) ofanevent Wecansumallthelocationalconsequencesatasetlocation,tocalculatethetotalrisk=facilityrisk. EventLocation DistancefromEvent,x

17. TypesofConsequences LocationalConsequence–OutdoorIMMOVEABLEreceptorthatismaximallyexposed. Probabilityoftheeffect,Pd(death,damage) ofanevent LayersofProtection IndividualConsequence– Anabilitytoescapeandanindoorvs.outdoorexposure. EventLocation DistancefromEvent,x

18. AggregateConsequence–OutdoorIMMOVEABLE receptor. ρPd(death,damage)ofanevent 𝐶ௗ=𝐴ݎ݁𝑎𝑈݊݀݁ݎ𝐶ݑݎݒ݁ = 𝑷ࢊ𝜌݀𝐴 𝐸𝑥௣௢௦௘ௗ 𝐺௘௢𝑔௥𝑎௣ℎ𝑖௖𝑎𝑙 𝐴௥௘𝑎 ρ=PopulationDensity, Riskreceptorsperunit area EventLocation dA DistancefromEvent,x

19. AggregateConsequence–OutdoorIMMOVEABLE receptor. LayersofProtection ρPd(death,damage)ofanevent SocietalConsequence– Anabilitytoescape,indoorvs.outdoorexposureandfractionoftimethereceptorareatalocation. 𝐶ௗ=𝐴ݎ݁𝑎𝑈݊݀݁ݎ𝐶ݑݎݒ݁ = 𝑷ࢊ𝜌݀𝐴 𝐸𝑥௣௢௦௘ௗ 𝐺௘௢𝑔௥𝑎௣ℎ𝑖௖𝑎𝑙 𝐴௥௘𝑎 ρ=PopulationDensity, Riskreceptorsperunit area EventLocation dA DistancefromEvent,x

20. DifferentTypesofRisk Risk–Ameasureofhumaninjury,environmentaldamageoreconomiclossintermsofboththefrequencyandthemagnitudeofthelossorinjury. Riskofharmcanresultsfromdifferenttypesofactivities: Case1–Arepeatedorplannedactivitytoauniqueriskreceptor. Case2–Repeatedorplannedactivitiestoabroadpopulation.Case3–Randomfailureevents.

21. DifferentTypesofRisk • CASE1-Riskofharmfromarepeatedorplannedactivity • toauniqueriskreceptor. • Thiscanberiskofdeathfromamedicalprocedureforthe • patient. • Thepatientmaybetoldthereisa2%chanceofdeathfromanoperation.Thisstatisticisbasedonthetotalnumberofoperationsperformedoversomeperiodandthefractionofoperationsthatresultindeath. • Riskofdeathfromtheoperation= • likelihood*consequence

22. DifferentTypesofRisk • CASE2-Riskofharmfromarepeatedorplannedactivity • toabroadpopulation. • Ifwecanextendtheoperationexamplefurtherbutnowlet’s go beyond theonepatient– considertheannualfrequencyofdeathfromthisoperationacrossCanada. • Re-evaluatethepreviousstatistic:inCanada,2outof100patientsdieannuallyfromanoperation. • Frequencyreplaceslikelihoodbecauseweareconsideringtheoccurrenceofaneventperyear. • Risk[deathannuallyfromtheoperation]= • frequency[operationperyear]*consequence[deathsperoperation]

23. DifferentTypesofRisk CASE2-Riskofharmfromarepeatedorplannedactivity toabroadpopulation. Example–Unloadingarailtankcar Acompanytransformstherisksofrepeated activitiesfromabroadpopulationtotheircohort ofoperators–itisimportanttonotethatacompanywillnotassessriskforaspecificoperator. Hazard–Unloadingarailtankcar Event– Ignitionofspilledchemical Cause–Humanerrorwhenuncouplinghoses Consequence–3rddegreeburntoanoperator Risk=1in100chanceperyearanoperatorgetsa3rddegreeburn

24. DifferentTypesofRisk Example–Unloadingarailtankcar Let’sbreak downhowwearrivedatthe risk. Unloadingrailtankcar=1000/year Probabilityofhumanerrorwhenuncoupling hosessuchthatsomechemicalisreleased=1in1000opportunities Probabilitythatasignificantamountisspilled=1in10 Probabilityofsomeignitionsource=1in10 Probabilityofpeoplebeingpresent=1(i.e.everytime) Probabilityofnotescapingafireonceignited=1 Expectedconsequence=3rddegreeburnsifexposedtofire Riskof3rddegreeburnstoanyoperatorunloadingrailtankcars =frequencyxconsequence =1000/yrx(1/1000)x(1/10)x(1/10)x1x1 =0.01peryearoronceevery100years

25. DifferentTypesofRisk • CASE3-Riskofharmfromrandomfailureevents. • Randomfailureeventscanbefromdrivingacar. • InOntario,thereare2000deathsperyearduetocaraccidents. • Againweevaluatetheoccurrenceoftheseeventsovera • standardisedperiod-peryear. • Risk[deathannuallypercaraccidentinOntario]= • frequency[caraccidentsperyear] • *consequence[deathspercaraccidents] • Units:Risk-consequence/yearFrequency–events/yearConsequence–consequence/event

26. Risk:Jaywalking–Individualvs.DecisionMaker TorontoStar

27. ConcernsaboutHazards-PointsofView • IndividualReceptor • Consequence–Whatcanhappentomeasaresultofanundesirableevent? • CouldIdie?CouldIgetinjured?CouldIbeinconvenienced? • Couldmypropertybedamaged?Whatwouldbelevelandtypeofproblemdamage,incomelossandcostoftherepairs? • Likelihood–Whatarethechances? • ThatIcoulddie?ThatIcouldgetinjured?ThatIcouldbeinconvenienced? • Thatmypropertycouldbedamaged? • Risk–Measurementofthecombinedimportanceoftheconsequencesandlikelihoodofthoseconsequences. • – Thiswillbeusedtomakejudgementsofabouttheacceptabilityofthe • individualrisk.

28. ConcernsaboutHazards-PointsofView • SafetyDecisionMaker-SocietalorAggregateView • Consequence–Whatcanhappentotheindividualreceptors • exposedtotherisksource? • Couldanyonedie,getinjured,beinconvenienced?Howmany? • Couldtherebeanypropertydamageorproductionloss? • Couldtherebeanyenvironmentaldamage?Howmuch? • Likelihood–Whatarethechances? • Thatanyonecoulddie,getinjured,beinconvenienced? • Thatanypropertycouldbedamaged? • Thattherewillbeanyenvironmentaldamage? • Risk–Measurementofthecombinedimportanceoftheconsequencesandlikelihoodofthoseconsequences. • – Thiswillbeusedtomakejudgementsofabouttheacceptabilityofthe • societalrisk.

29. ConceptDefinitions RiskAnalysis–Thedevelopmentofaquantitativeriskestimatebasedonanengineeringevaluationofincidentconsequencesandfrequency.

30. RiskAnalysis:PlaneCrash SocietalRisk(fatality)=Numberoffatalitiesperincidents xNumberofincidentsperyear SocietalRisk(financial)=Costperincidents xNumberofincidentsperyear

31. ConceptDefinitions Safety–Relativeprotectionfromtheexposuretohazardsthatleadtosevereandsuddenoutcomes.Safetyisameasureandisachievedifriskarejudgedtobeacceptable. Peoplearenotcompletelylogicalwhenitcomestoanalysingrisk versusthecostofsafety.

32. Health–Relativeprotectionfromtheexposuretohazardsthatleadtoillnessordisease.Thismeasuredealswithadversereactionstoexposureoverprolongedperiodstohazardsthatareusuallylessseverebutstilldangerous.Health–Relativeprotectionfromtheexposuretohazardsthatleadtoillnessordisease.Thismeasuredealswithadversereactionstoexposureoverprolongedperiodstohazardsthatareusuallylessseverebutstilldangerous.

33. TypesofAcceptableRisk • InvoluntaryRisk • AssemblyLineWorker • CommercialFlight • SocietalRisk • PlaneFlight • VoluntaryRiskvs. • MountainClimber • Driving • IndividualRisk • MotorcycleCrash vs. Eachpersonhasalevelofindividualandvoluntaryrisktheywilltoleratefortheirownsafety.However,whenconsideringinvoluntaryandsocietalrisk,wemustacceptastandardisedlevelofrisk.

34. AcceptableRiskCriteria • InCanada,thereisnospecificlegislativenumbercriterionforprotectingworkersorthepublic.TheCanadianSocietyofChemicalEngineerssuggestedacceptableriskcriteriaforlanduseplanningwhenconsideringprocesshazardsfromaprocessingfacility. • TheUnitedKingdomandtheNetherlandsaretheonlycountriestohavespecificriskcriteriaforprotectingthepublicregardinglanduseplanning.HOWEVER,nospecificnumbercriteriaforprotectingworkersexists.

35. AcceptableRiskCriteria • Giventhe lackof nationalstandards for worker’s acceptableriskcriteria,eachcompanyestablishestheirownspecificriskacceptabilitycriteria. • Acompanywillsettheiracceptableriskcriteriarelativetootherrisksthatsocietyhasalreadyaccepted(i.e.benchmark)suchastheriskofdeathfromdrivingtowork,riskdeathfromafireathome. • Criteriawillhopefullybeinfluencedbyemployees,peers,societyandgovernment–ifthe company’sstandardsare not adequate, someonewilleventuallytellthem.

36. WhatisAcceptableRisk? JudgementZone Risk DeMinimus DeMaximis Ariskthatistoosmalltogenerateconcern Ariskthatistoolargeandgeneratesconcern ACCEPTABLERISK 1x10-6 deaths/yearina community UNACCEPTABLERISK 1x10-3 deaths/yearina community 36

37. WhatisAcceptableRisk? JudgementZone Risk DeMinimus DeMaximis Ariskthatistoosmalltogenerateconcern Ariskthatistoolargeandgeneratesconcern Toronto’sPopulation=3million Deathsper <3 >3000 Unacceptable year Acceptable

38. AcceptableRisk:CarAccidents In2010,therewere2,000caraccidentswith2227victims. TheCanada-wideriskcanbedeterminedbyaccountingforthepopulationofthenation(34million) ʹʹʹ͹݂𝑎ݐ𝑎݈𝑖ݐ𝑖݁ݏ݌݁ݎݕ݁𝑎ݎ 𝐶𝑎݊𝑎݀𝑎−ݓ𝑖݀݁𝑅𝑖ݏ݇= ͵Ͷ݉𝑖݈݈𝑖݋݊݌݋݌ݑ݈𝑎ݐ𝑖݋݊ =͸ͷݔͳͲ−6݀݁𝑎ݐℎݏ݌݁ݎݕ݁𝑎ݎ ACCEPTABLERISKONAPERPERSONBASIS

39. AcceptableRisk:OntarioWorkplaceInjuries In2010,therewere184,099peopleinjuredsuchthattheycould notgotoworkthenextday. Therewere6.82millionworkersinOntarioin2010.OntarioInjuryRisk=3injuresperyearper100workersIsthisacceptable?

40. Whoisresponsibleforrisk? • Thestakeholdersresponsibleforidentifyingandmanagingriskinclude: • Employers • Employees • Governmentandotherregulatoryauthorities • Compensationandinsuranceprovides • Thepublic • Inanorganization,occupationalhealthandsafetyinvolveseveryone,fromthechiefexecutiveofficertotheworker.Employeesandemployersoftenarejointlyresponsibleforoccupationalhealthandsafetyandemployersareaccountablefornon-compliance.

41. Whybotherwithidentifyinghazardsandrisks? • Economics • Legality • Morality • Corporateimage • Employeeandemployerwell-being • Liability • Insurance • ProfessionalEthics • Goodcorporatemoral • Employeerecruitment

42. Whybotherwithidentifyinghazardsandrisks? Morality Itisgenerallyacceptedthatemployershavemoralresponsibilitytheiremployeesinprovidingasafeworkingenvironment Economics Theindirectanddirecteconomiccostsofworkplaceaccidentsandillnessesaresignificant.Costscanbeassociatedwiththetimelostfromwork,humanpainandsuffering,andthesubsequentlossofmoralanddeclineinworkerefficiencyandproductivity.

43. Whybotherwithidentifyinghazardsandrisks? Legality Governmentallegislationonoccupationhealthandsafetyprovidesworkerswiththerighttoasafeworkenvironment.Inprotectingworkers,employersmustexerciseduediligence.Forexample,employersmusttakereasonableprecautionsappropriateforthecircumstances.Therearesignificantlegalpenaltiesforviolatinghealthandsafetylegislation;theycancivillawsuitsandcriminalprosecutions.

44. Checkpoint Thisisacondition: Health Safety Risk Hazard Answer:D

45. Checkpoint Thisisconsideredtobeanacceptablelevelofriskforsocietalorvoluntaryactivities: 1in10,000deaths 1in100,000deaths 1in1,000,000deaths D.1in10,000,000deaths Answer:C

46. Checkpoint Thisistheunitofriskanalysis: Costperevent Fatalitiesperevent Fatalitiesperyear ExtentofInjuryperevent Answer:C

47. Checkpoint Whichofthefollowingisareasonforacompanytobeinterestedinworkplacesafety? Employeeandemployerwell-being Insurance CorporateImage Economics Alloftheabove Answer:E

48. Checkpoint Whichofthefollowingisareasonforacompanytobeinterestedinworkplacesafety? Employeeandemployerwell-being Insurance CorporateImage Economics Alloftheabove Answer:E

49. Howdoalltheseconceptsfittogether? Risks RiskAssessment Safety Health Stakeholders Frequency RiskAcceptability Consequence 49

50. HazardandRiskFramework SystemDefinition RiskAssessment RiskAnalysis HazardIdentification Stakeholder Participation ConsequenceAnalysis FrequencyAnalysis RiskEstimation RiskAcceptability 50