UNSD/STATISTICS KOREA

1. UNSD/STATISTICS KOREA International Seminar on Population and Housing Censuses: Beyond the 2010 Round Seoul, 27-29 November 2012 Beyond 2011: The future of population statistics in the UK? A report from the UK’s Beyond 2011 Programme Ian White, Office for National Statistics, UK

2. Beyond the 2010 round • Context - why change? • Statistical options – what are the alternatives? • Timescale – how long will it take to get there? • Risks and issues – what could go wrong?

3. Beyond the 2010 round Why change? – Why look beyond 2011?

4. Beyond the 2010 round Why change? – Why look beyond 2011? • Rapidly changing society

5. Beyond the 2010 round Why change? – Why look beyond 2011? • Rapidly changing society • Evolving user requirements

6. Beyond the 2010 round Why change? – Why look beyond 2011? • Rapidly changing society • Evolving user requirements • New opportunities for data sharing

7. Beyond the 2010 round Why change? – Why look beyond 2011? • Rapidly changing society • Evolving user requirements • New opportunities for data sharing • Traditional census is costly and • infrequent

8. Programme purpose • Identify the best way to provide small area population and socio-demographic statistics in future • Provide a recommendation in 2014 • - underpinned by full cost-benefit analysis • high level design for implementation • Implement the recommendation (subject to agreement)

9. Beyond 2011 : Statistical options Traditional Census (long form to everyone) • Long form (sample) , Short form (everyone else) Census options • Short form + Annual Survey (US model) • Rolling Census ( (over 5/10 year period) • Aggregate analysis Administrative data options • (Intermediate) Sample linkage e.g. 1% of postcodes • 100% linkage to create ‘statistical population spine’ Survey option(s) • Address register + Survey

10. Beyond 2011 – statistical options FRAME SOURCES DATA OUTPUTS ESTIMATION All National to Small Area Population Data Address Admin Source CENSUS Register Population estimates Admin Source Admin Source Adjusting for missing data and error ?? Coverage Assessment Quality measurement Population distribution provides weighting for attributes incl. under & over-coverage - by survey and admin data? Comm Source increasing later? Household structure etc Commercial sources? Adjusting for non response bias in survey (or sources) Surveys to fill gaps Socio demographic Attribute Data Household Attribute estimates Socio demographic Survey(s) Communal Longitudinal data Establishments Maintained national address gazetteer – provides frame for population data & surveys Interactional Analysis E.g. TTWA

11. Potential key data sources Population data • National Health Service Patient Register • Tax and Pensions Customer Information System • Electoral Register (> 17 years) • Higher Education Statistics Agency data (students) • School Census (5-16 years) • Vital registrations (births, deaths, marriages) • DVLA (driving licenses)

12. Potential key data sources Socio-demographic data • Surveys • Public utilities • TV Licensing • DVLA • eBorders and • Commercial sources ???

13. Major statistical challenges • No population register • Data quality • Incomplete • Out of date • Duplicates / erroneous entries • Little reliable population attribute data in administrative data sources • Coverage survey required • Attribute survey required

14. Customer Information System UK Driving Licence School Census Coverage Of Main Administrative Sources Electoral Roll Patient Register Data Higher Education Students Missing includes: Migrants not (yet) registered Newborn babies Some private only patients Missing includes: Non higher education students Independent University students Missing includes: Non-drivers Under 17’s Some foreign-licence holders Missing includes: Some migrant worker dependants Some international students Undocumented asylum seekers Missing includes: Under 17s Ineligible voters Non responders Missing includes: Non school aged people Independent school children Home schooled children HESA DVLA DVLA ER CIS SC SC Resident Population PRD ER Extras includes: Some duplicates International students on short-term courses Students ceased studying, not formally deregistered Extras includes: Short-term migrant children Extras includes: Some duplicates Some ex-pats Some deceased Short-term migrants Extras includes: Some ex-pats Some deceased Extras includes: Multiple registrations Some ex-pats Some deceased Short-term migrants Extras includes: Some ex-pats Some deceased Short-term migrants PRD CIS

15. DWP CIS population counts compared with ONS Mid Year population estimates

16. Patient Register population counts compared with ONS Mid Year population estimates

17. Electoral Roll population counts compared with ONS Mid Year population estimates

18. Beyond 2011 - Timeline - the key decision CENSUS SOLUTION 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 detailed develop test rehearse run outputs design 2011 2012 2013 2014 research / definition initiation BEYOND 2011 ‘Phase 1’ population population detailed procure / develop / characteristics estimates design develop test outputs 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 ALTERNATIVE SOLUTION 2014 Recommendation & decision point

19. Beyond 2011 - Timeline (non census solution) 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 population population detailed procure / develop / research / definition initiation characteristics estimates design develop test outputs coverage surveys continuous assessment testing attribute surveys info from existing surveys – e.g. labour force survey, integrated household survey etc linkage increasing linkage over time modelling increasing modelling over time address register required on an ongoing basis – ideally the National Address Gazetteer – subject to confirmation of quality public sector & commercial ? admin sources developing over time supplemented by new targeted surveys as required test

20. Beyond 2011 - and into the future 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 regular production of population and attribute estimates ongoing methodology refinement address register required on an ongoing basis and be added & develop over time administrative sources will change and disappear continuous coveragesurvey need for attributesurveys declines over time ? existing surveys increasing linkage over time increasing modelling over time

21. 2013 2021 2031 accuracy of population estimates accuracy of characteristics estimates range of topics small area detail multivariate small area detail Improving quality & quantity experimental statistics develop to become national statistics

22. Census Alternativemethod Benefit 2011 2021 2031 2041 Statistical benefit profile loss loss gain gain

23. Census Cost ???Alternative method 2011 2021 2031 2041 Cost profile (real terms)

24. Evaluation criteria • Costs • Quality/benefits • Accuracy • Frequency • Geographic detail • Legislative requirements • Risk • Public acceptability/burden – public consultation

25. Key risks of non census alternatives • Public opinion • Public acceptability research, open consultation and transparency of approach • Technical challenge – cutting edge…. a big change • Building high quality team, talking to experts and strong external assurance • Changes in administrative datasets • Building resilient solutions – but may need legislation • Ensuring decision making – getting political buy-in • This is a big decision – needs real commitment • Devolved issues/harmonisation of UK outputs • Establishment of UK Beyond 2011 Committee

26. beyond2011@ons.gov.uk