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What’s Happening on Main Street Montana

What’s Happening on Main Street Montana. Main Street Montana Project Roundtable Billings, Montana May 23, 2013. Montana and U.S. Personal Income Growth. 5 th Fastest in Last Year. 37 th Highest Personal Income Per Capita. Euro Debt Crisis. Debt Ceiling Debate. Stock Market Crash. U.S.

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What’s Happening on Main Street Montana

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  1. What’s Happening onMain Street Montana Main Street Montana Project Roundtable Billings, Montana May 23, 2013

  2. Montana and U.S. Personal Income Growth 5th Fastest in Last Year • 37th Highest Personal Income Per Capita Euro Debt Crisis Debt Ceiling Debate Stock Market Crash U.S. Montana 14th Fastest Personal Income Growth since Depth of Recession Source: Quarterly Personal Income, Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Dept. of Commerce. 37th using 2012 data.

  3. Payroll Employment Nearly Recovered(Indexed to Peak Employment) Source: Current Employment Statistics, April 2013 preliminary. Peak employment for Montana occurred in March 2008. U.S. indexed to Jan. 2008 peak.

  4. Montana and U.S. Unemployment Rate • Montana has the 12th lowest unemployment rate in the U.S. U.S. Montana Yellowstone Source: Local Area Unemployment Statistics from MT DLI and the Current Population Survey from BLS. 12th lowest from April.

  5. iClicker Question How do you feel our economy is performing right now? • Montana is rocking it! • Doing pretty good, but room for improvement. • Ho hum. The economy isn’t good, but it’s not bad. • Some people are doing ok, but not the rest of us. • Statistics are lies. It’s rough out there.

  6. Regional and Reservation Unemployment 2012 Source: Montana Dept. of Labor and Industry Reservation Unemployment Rates, 2012, and Local Area Unemployment Statistics, BLS and MTDLI.

  7. Montana Average Annual Wages Yellowstone 2012: $40,800 Montana 2012: $37,100 Source: Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages, BLS, and MT DLI

  8. Montana Average Annual Wages INFLATIONWAGE GROWTH Source: Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages, BLS, and MT DLI

  9. Montana Average Annual Wages WAGE GROWTH 2nd Fastest Wage Growth Last Year Yet, 44th Highest Average Annual Wage 41st Hourly Source: Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages, BLS, and MT DLI. 48th determined by 2011 ranking.

  10. Take Away Points • Montana’s economy is growing quickly, • Faster income growth, • Faster job growth, • Faster wage growth, and • Lower unemployment than the nation. • But we have a long way to go. • What are we doing right? • What do we need to work on? • Let’s focus on wages.

  11. Industry Composition of U.S. and MT Economies (by GDP) Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Gross Domestic Product 2011.

  12. Comparative Industry Employment Federal – 3% State – 5% Local – 11% Private – 81% Source: Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages, 2012.

  13. Comparative Industry Private Employment: US, MT, and South Central MT Source: Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages, 2011 Private Employers only.

  14. Comparative Industry Private Employment: US, MT, and South Central MT Source: Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages, 2011 Private Employers only.

  15. Montana Personal Income by Industry Since 1930 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Personal Income from 1930, SICs to NAICS conversion compiled by the Montana Department of Labor and Industry Research and Analysis Bureau.

  16. Industry Mix Compared to U.S. • Roughly equal in good-producing industries, but less manufacturing. • Larger government, health care, and tourism. • Smaller financial and business services. • Industry mix doesn’t explain lower wages.

  17. Wages and Labor Productivity Wages Labor Productivity Source: Wages from Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages, 2011 annual. GSP and employment from the Bureau of Economic Analysis and average hours from the Current Employment Statistics. Calculated by MT DLI R&A.

  18. Montana’s Aging Population Under 20 20 to 64 Over 65 Working-age population levels out after 2015. Workers must become more productive to maintain economic growth. Source: Census and Economic Information Center, MT Dept. of Commerce, April 2013

  19. Factors Influencing Productivity • Education

  20. Labor Productivity and Education Source: Education attainment from 2009-2011 ACS, U.S. Census. GSP and employment from the Bureau of Economic Analysis and average hours from the Current Employment Statistics. Calculated by MT DLI R&A.

  21. Labor Productivity and Education • Montana’s labor productivity is lower than expected given education levels. Source: Education attainment from 2009-2011 ACS, U.S. Census. GSP and employment from the Bureau of Economic Analysis and average hours from the Current Employment Statistics. Calculated by MT DLI R&A.

  22. Factors Influencing Productivity • Education • Experience in job • Job Matching • Industry Mix • Urban concentration • Use of technology • Spread of best practices and innovative methods • Business Size

  23. Montana has High Rates of Entrepreneurialism • #3 for Percent of Households owning a Business • #6 for Employer Startups • #15 for Net Employer Startups Montana Ranks Among States Source: Kaufman Foundation, 2012. Employer statistics from Business Employment Dynamics, 2010Q2 - 2012Q3, Bureau of Labor Statistics. Percent of Households from Current Population Survey, 2009-2012. Analysis by MT Dept of Labor and Industry

  24. Business Startups by County 2007-2010(as percent of existing establishments) Source: Research and Analysis Bureau, MT Dept of Labor and Industry

  25. Job Performance of New Firms Started Since 2007 by Size Source: Research and Analysis Bureau, MT Dept of Labor, using QCEW micro data.

  26. Montana has Lots of Small Businesses, but Large Business Provide the Jobs and Wages ESTABLISHMENTS Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW), 2012

  27. Montana has Lots of Small Businesses, but Large Business Provide the Jobs and Wages EMPLOYMENT WAGES ESTABLISHMENTS Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW), 2012

  28. Large Businesses Provide Higher Pay and Benefits Average Wage Providing Insurance Source: Quarterly Census and Employment and Wages and Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality, Center for Financing, Access and Cost Trends. 2011 Medical Expenditure Panel Survey-Insurance Component.

  29. Factors Influencing Productivity • Education • Experience in job • Job Matching • Industry Mix • Urban concentration • Use of technology • Spread of best practices and innovative methods • Business Size

  30. Economic Development Concept Map

  31. Full Report Available atwww.lmi.mt.gov Barbara Wagner, Chief Economist Montana Department of Labor and Industry 406-444-5474 bwagner@mt.gov

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