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Developing a Cold Temperature Risk Assessment

Developing a Cold Temperature Risk Assessment. Kristen Gore, Adrienne Wootten , and Ryan Boyles Carolinas and Virginia Climate Conference October 20, 2009 Wilmington, NC. Motivation. Spring freezes can potentially eliminate an entire year’s worth of crops

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Developing a Cold Temperature Risk Assessment

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  1. Developing a Cold Temperature Risk Assessment Kristen Gore, Adrienne Wootten, and Ryan Boyles Carolinas and Virginia Climate Conference October 20, 2009 Wilmington, NC

  2. Motivation • Spring freezes can potentially eliminate an entire year’s worth of crops • Severe damage can have impacts for several years to fruit crops • Some crops are more vulnerable then others • Risk of freeze damage depends on • Plant develop prior to freeze • Timing, duration of freeze

  3. The NC Department of Agriculture and Consumer Services Estimated Crop Losses to a total of $112 million dollars in North Carolina

  4. Methods • The Probability of a freeze is determined using • Station • Time Span (at least 30yrs) • Date of Interest • Temperature Threshold (depends on the crop)

  5. Statistical Information • Probability of the Low Temperature Falling below the threshold for a given date • Low Temperature Frequency Distribution • Climatological Probability Trend • Yearly Growing Degree Day (GDD) Trend • Climatological GDD Trend

  6. ScreenShot • Plot 2

  7. ScreenShots • Plot 3

  8. ScreenShots • Plot 4

  9. ScreenShots • Plot 5

  10. In the Future • Finish Development • Develop map-based risk products • Location, crop specific • Look at risk as influenced by ENSO, Arctic Oscillation

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