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The Asian-Australian Monsoon System: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Prediction

This report provides an update on the recent evolution and current status of the Asian-Australian monsoon system, including rainfall patterns, monsoon prediction, and climatology. It also discusses the demise of the Asian monsoon and the onset of the Australian monsoon.

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The Asian-Australian Monsoon System: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Prediction

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  1. The Asian-Australian Monsoon System: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Prediction Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP July 09, 2018 For more information, visit:http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Global_Monsoons/Asian_Monsoons/Asian_Monsoons.shtml

  2. Outline • Recent Rainfall and Current Conditions • Monsoon Prediction • Summary • Climatology

  3. Precip Patterns: Last 90 Days For the past 90 days, below normal rainfall deficits remain over southeastern China, across much of central India, over almost all of Australia, New Guinea, and parts of Malaysia. Elsewhere, the rainfall amounts received were at normal to slightly above normal levels.

  4. Precip Patterns: Last 30 Days For the past 30 days, rainfall deficits are noted across central India, eastern China, Papua New Guinea and southern Philippines. Elsewhere rainfall received was at slightly elevated levels.

  5. Precip Patterns: Last 7 Days In this past week, rainfall amounts were deficient across most of India and sporadically across east Asia. Elsewhere rainfall was quite spotty and spatially irregular. According to the India Met. Dept, since the first of June till today, All India Rainfall has been 9 % deficient.

  6. Atmospheric Circulation Generally these CDAS maps are two days behind. But sometimes, as it is today, due to technical issues, these maps are further behind.

  7. Rainfall Time Seriesover 5x5 lat-lon boxes The time series of precipitation over the various regions is pretty much consistent with the spatial maps shown earlier.

  8. NCEP/GFS Model Forecasts Accumulated Precip. for Week 1 & Week 2 Week-1 Week-2

  9. NCEP/GFS Model Forecasts Bias-Corrected Precip. Anom. for Week 1 & Week 2 Week-1 Week-2

  10. Summary For the past 90 days, below normal rainfall deficits remain over southeastern China, across much of central India, over almost all of Australia, New Guinea, and parts of Malaysia. Elsewhere, the rainfall amounts received were at normal to slightly above normal levels. For the past 30 days, rainfall deficits are noted across central India, eastern China, Papua New Guinea and southern Philippines. Elsewhere rainfall received was at slightly elevated levels. In this past week, rainfall amounts were deficient across most of India and sporadically across east Asia. Elsewhere rainfall was quite spotty and spatially irregular. According to the India Met. Dept, since the first of June till today, All India Rainfall has been 9% deficient. In the upcoming two weeks, the NCEP GFS model forecast is predicting below normal rainfall over south central India, and south central and eastern China. Above normal rainfall is forecast over north central and northern India, and over southeast Asian countries Thailand, Laos, Cambodia, Vietnam and southern Burma.

  11. Demise of the Asian Monsoon

  12. Onset of the Australian Monsoon

  13. Climatology

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