How Finances Affect the Educational Ambitions of Two-year College Students

1. How Finances Affect the Educational Ambitions of Two-year College Students Katharine Broton & Sara Goldrick-RabDepartments of Sociology & Educational Policy StudiesJuly 8, 2011

2. Higher Education Today • High school students have high educational expectations • 80% of high school sophomores expect to earn a B.A. or higher and 12% expect an associate’s degree or certificate • Two-thirds of high school graduates enroll in higher education • Stratified higher education system • Income gap • College completion rates are stagnant • 20% students at public 2-year colleges earn a degree in 3 yrs. • Varies by institutional and student factors

3. What We Know Thus Far • Educational aspirations are a significant predictor of attainment • Institutional factors influence students’ educational ambitions • Two-year college counselors systematically lower or “cool out” students’ educational plans; this could be bad or good. • Faculty at two-year colleges “warm up” or increase students’ educational goals • Implies that two-year colleges cause students’ to change goals • But individual factors also influence students’ educational plans • Low-income and less academically prepared students are more likely to lower their educational expectations over time • Financial aid increases completion, but mechanisms are unclear.

4. Research Questions • How do students describe the relationship between finances and educational ambitions, if at all? • What are students’ educational ambitions during their early college years and how do they change over time? • Is there a causal relationship between students’ finances andtheireducational ambitions?

5. Wisconsin Scholars Longitudinal Study • Panel study of low-income students who are first-time full-time enrollees in a Wisconsin public college in fall 2008. • 1,100 students enrolled at a two-year college in fall 2008* • 477 students were randomlyselected to receive the Wisconsin Scholars Grant valued at $1,800 per year (up to five years). • 623 low-income students serve as the control group. • Data include: • Two surveys (fall 2008 and fall 2009) • Repeated in-depth interviews (fall 2008–spring 2010) * One college dropped because the program was not administered as intended due to unexpected challenges.

6. Research Design Expands the breadth and depth of inquiry

7. Qualitative analytical approach • Phase 1:Examined the interviews of 15 two or four-year college studentswho lowered their educational ambitions according to survey data • Coded for educational and occupational plans, finances, and enrollment decisions • Phase 2: Examined the interviews of 12 students who attended aWisconsin Technical College System two-year institution in 2008, regardless of educational ambitions(no interviews available with UW-College students). • Inductive coding • Triangulation

8. Quantitative analytical approach • Highest Aspiration: • Thinking about the rest of your life, how much college education would you like to get? • AA, BA, MA, or Other prof. or graduate degree • Likelihood Questions: • How likely are each of the following scenarios?* • You will transfer to a four-year college? • You will get a bachelor's degree? • Rate from 1="not at all likely” to 5="extremely likely” *Excludes students not enrolled in college in fall 2009.

9. Validity • Internal validity • Treatment and control groups statistically equivalent at baseline • Differential attrition rates are very low (0-2 percent) • Covariates included in the regression models • External validity • Analytic samples differ slightly from full sample • More women (~1.5 times more likely than men to respond to the survey in 2008 & 2009)

10. Initial Qualitative Findings • Financial constraints influence enrollment decisions and act an obstacle in reaching educational goals • Sheva: “[Two-year college] was just a wiser choice for me because I really wasn't sure I'd be able to afford - I know I wouldn't be able to afford a four-year university by myself.” • Pao: “[If] I don't get the financial aid money then I probably won't go to school or I'll probably have to work and go part-time so I can pay it off - because I really rely on financial aid money just to go to school.” • Bethany: “It’s just financial issues now because I know I can do the [school] work – that’s no biggie – it’s just paying for everything…it’s about $7,000 worth of obstacle.” • Students talked about changing their educational ambitions less often.

11. Two-year students’ aspirations, fall 2008 Note: Survey weights were used in all analyses (constant composition N=445)

12. Two-year students’ aspirations, fall 2009 among those who initially aspired to an AA Note: Logistic regression AA vs. BA+ marginally significant (p=.10) Survey weights were used in all analyses (constant composition N=88)

13. Two-year students’ aspirations, fall 2009 among those who initially aspired to a BA+ Note: Multinomial logistic regression BA vs. MA significant (p<.05) Survey weights were used in all analyses (constant composition N=357)

14. Key Quantitative Findings • Among those who initially aspired to an Associate’s degree, grant recipients were more likely to “warm up” or aspire to a Bachelor’s degree in 2009 than non-recipients (p=.10; N=88). • Grant recipients were 50% more likely than non-recipients to aspire to a Bachelor’s degree rather than a Master’s degree in 2009, among those who initially aspired to a BA or higher. • No statistically significant findings regarding the likelihood of transfer to a four-year college or Bachelor’s degree attainment.

15. Kalia’s trajectory

16. Kalia’s trajectory

17. Kalia’s trajectory

18. Kalia’s trajectory

19. Kalia’s trajectory Kalia plans to take out two loans to pay for her AA. She says she would prefer to stay in school and earn her BA, but isn’t sure how she is going to pay for it.

20. Kalia learns the V.A. will pay for most of her AA so she doesn’t need to take the loans. She says she’ll probably earn a BA if she gets tuition reimbursement, but plans to enter the workforce after earning her AA. Kalia’s trajectory

21. Key Qualitative Findings • Changing educational plans • More dynamic than previous research suggests • Aspirations survey measure is a snapshot in time • Survey and interview data don’t always line up (r=.33; N=11) • Various levels of alignment between students’ educational and career plans • Career goals  Educational goals • Academic success or failure influences educational ambitions

22. Working Hypotheses • Additional grant dollars change students’ beliefs regarding who should pay for college and how much debt is acceptable. • Grant recipients learn more about their occupational goals and the level of education necessary for that career (through increased contact with counselors or professors) and adjust their educational ambitions accordingly. • Grant recipients who attempt more credits have additional stress or burnout - thus they decide they do not want to or cannot go as far in school as they had previously hoped. • Grant recipients are aligning their ambitions with the 5 year eligibility of the Wisconsin Scholars Grant.

23. Conclusions • There is a causal relationship between students’ finances and their educational aspirations indicating that ambitions are influenced by individual-level factors. • Grant recipients are more likely than non-recipients to aspire to a Bachelor’s degree in their second year of college. • Indicates that additional financial resources promotes “warming up” among those who initially aspired to an AA. • Suggests a leveling down to possibly more realistic aspirations among those who initially had graduate degree aspirations. • “Cooling out” may be a reflection of the disproportionate share of low-income students at two-year colleges. • Educational ambitions are more malleable and nuanced than previous research indicates.

24. Thank you • Special thanks to the Wisconsin Scholars Longitudinal Study staff, partners, and funders for collecting the data and making it availableand to the students for participating. • Thank you to the Mixed Methods seminar participants and Social Science Computing Cooperative at UW-Madison for feedback and advice on earlier drafts. • The research reported here was supported in part by the Institute of Education Sciences, U.S. Department of Education, through Award #R305B090009 to UW-Madison.

26. Two-year students’ aspirations in 2009 by initial aspiration in 2008 48% 42% 25% 23% 21% 20% 11% 10% Survey weights were used in all analyses (constant composition N=445)

27. Two-year students’ aspirations, fall 2008 by sector of enrollment Note: Survey weights were used in all analyses (constant composition N=445)

29. Evidence standards WSLS two-year college students survey measurement attrition Fall 2008: 31.1% overall 0.2% T-C Fall 2009: 53.1% overall 2.1% T-C Fall 2008 & 2009: 55.4% overall 0.7% T-C Fall 2009 Constant Composition Fall 2008 Note: N=1100; one school dropped due to implementation issues WWC Procedures and Standards Handbook Version 2.0 – December 2008 http://ies.ed.gov/ncee/wwc/references/idocviewer/Doc.aspx?docId=19&tocId=4