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FEBRUARY 4, 2015 | HOLYOKE, MA

FEBRUARY 4, 2015 | HOLYOKE, MA. Eric Winkler Ph.D. Project Manager - DSM Planning. Demand Resources Working Group. FCM Qualification: Analysis of Installed Measures for Energy Efficiency Projects. Disclaimer .

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FEBRUARY 4, 2015 | HOLYOKE, MA

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  1. FEBRUARY 4, 2015 | HOLYOKE, MA Eric Winkler Ph.D. Project Manager - DSM Planning Demand Resources Working Group FCM Qualification: Analysis of Installed Measures for Energy Efficiency Projects

  2. Disclaimer • This presentation does not replace any requirements set forth in the ISO-NE Tariff, Manuals or Operating Procedures • Refer to these documents for the dates, times and all requirements regarding compliance with the ISO-NE Forward Capacity Market

  3. Outline • Background • Qualification Package review process • Analysis of Installed Measures • Source data • Assumptions • Analysis • Results • Consultation with Project Sponsor

  4. Background: Qualification Review Process • The provisions of Section III.13.1.4.2.5.1. of the Tariff include the ISO’s consideration of the following: • Accurate and complete information submitted • M&V plan complies with all applicable requirements • Milestones in the critical path schedule are reasonable and likely to be met

  5. Background: Qualification Methodology • Since FCA1, the qualification process has included an analysis of the likelihood that the milestones in the critical path schedule (CPS) will be met by the proposed commercial operation date • When the ISO has historical data on performance and project development, a quantitative model is used to determine the reasonableness of the proposed project* • CPS due diligence for projects lacking an historical record are typically assessed based on submitted documentation supporting the business case *Including most Real-Time Demand Response and Real-Time Emergency Generation resources since FCA 1

  6. Background: Qualification Methodology (cont) • In 2012 the ISO initiated a process to collect detailed measure data for resources consisting of Energy Efficiency (EE) to be utilized to validate FCA Existing Capacity claims • In 2013 the ISO observed certain EE projects, that had previously been qualified without using the established quantitative methodology, to be falling behind on CPS • Based on the availability of measure data and the fact that the business case methodology was determined to be missing potential problems, the ISO developed a quantitative methodology for analyzing the CPS for EE projects based on the historical record along with supporting business plans

  7. Source Data • Data collected at demand resource level for all measures in market since June 16, 2006 • Data set includes: • Install and expiration date • Program name • Measure name and reference code • Sector and end use • M&V reference • Measure life • Units of measures (if monthly aggregation*) • Summer/Winter kW • Total Summer/Winter kW (if monthly aggregation) • Measures greater than 10kW at a single facility also include: • Street address, city, state and zip code * Aggregations of measures smaller than 10kW at a single facility may be rolled up to monthly installations, provided all measures in aggregation are similar and have the same measure life.

  8. Assumptions • Simple regression of measure install rates in recent record adequately reflect potential for future performance absent significant program changes in program implementation or design • Portfolio growth is a function of existing measure mix’s future expiration, non-commercial capacity obligated in upcoming capacity commitment periods (CCPs), and proposed project CPS under consideration • Expiration of to-be-built measures are not considered as a deficit, that is, that measures to be installed between the submission date and the start of the relevant CCP will not expire prior to the start of that period

  9. Analysis • Cumulative savings of measures installed and cumulative savings of measures expiring as of each month • Extended to future months using the linear regression line through the last complete three calendar years of data SAMPLE

  10. Analysis (Cont.) • The amount to be delivered by the start of the CCP is the sum of the existing qualified capacity (reduced by expiring measures) and the new capacity proposed • If the projected cumulative amount for each season is less than the amount to be delivered, the difference is shown in red as “Amount above estimate”

  11. Results

  12. Consultation With The Project Sponsor • Section III.13.1.4.3.3. of the Tariff allows for the ISO to consult with the Project Sponsor on the preliminary results of the review process • The results of the analysis we have described, together with all other components of the qualification package, are discussed internally by senior management before informing the Project Sponsor

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